Wychavon Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2019 Wychavon District Council Final Report September 2019 Main Contact: Dr Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2019 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Wychavon Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2019 Page | 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 8 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 8 Housing market context .................................................................................................... 8 Dwelling need, type and mix ............................................................................................ 9 The needs of other groups .............................................................................................. 10 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 12 Background and objectives ............................................................................................. 12 Government policy and guidance ................................................................................... 12 Definitions ....................................................................................................................... 15 Geography ....................................................................................................................... 16 Research methodology ................................................................................................... 18 Report structure .............................................................................................................. 19 2. Policy and strategic review ..................................................................................... 20 National context.............................................................................................................. 20 Strategic context ............................................................................................................. 20 Local context ................................................................................................................... 21 Neighbourhood Development Plans ............................................................................... 22 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 22 3. Understanding the housing market dynamics ......................................................... 23 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 23 House price trends .......................................................................................................... 23 Relative affordability ....................................................................................................... 28 Household migration ...................................................................................................... 29 Travel to work trends ...................................................................................................... 30 Housing market area ....................................................................................................... 32 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 32 4. Housing stock review.............................................................................................. 33 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 33 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure ....................... 33 Housing development (past and planned) ..................................................................... 40 Property tenure .............................................................................................................. 42 Owner-occupied sector ................................................................................................... 44 Private rented sector ...................................................................................................... 45 Affordable sector ............................................................................................................ 49 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 50 5. Affordable housing need and the needs of different groups .................................... 51 September 2019 Wychavon Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2019 Page | 3 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 51 Affordable Housing Needs Assessment .......................................................................... 52 Size of affordable dwellings ............................................................................................ 53 Tenure split ..................................................................................................................... 54 Relative affordability of housing tenure options ............................................................ 54 Household Groups with specific housing needs ............................................................. 61 Summary ......................................................................................................................... 81 6. Housing need in Wychavon District......................................................................... 83 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 83 Establishing housing need .............................................................................................. 83 Potential adjustments to the evidence base .................................................................. 87 Testing the standard methodology assumptions ........................................................... 88 7. Dwelling type and mix ............................................................................................ 91 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 91 Starting points ................................................................................................................. 91 Household aspirations and expectations ........................................................................ 96 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 97 8. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues .................................................................... 98 Housing need figure 2021-2031...................................................................................... 98 Affordable housing need ................................................................................................ 98 Meeting the needs of older people and those with disabilities ..................................... 98 Final comments ............................................................................................................... 99 Introduction to Technical Appendices .............................................................................. 100 Technical Appendix A: Research methodology ................................................................. 101 Overall approach ...........................................................................................................101 Estate and letting agent review ....................................................................................101 Technical Appendix B: Policy review ................................................................................ 102 Introduction ..................................................................................................................102 Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations ............................................................. 111 Introduction ..................................................................................................................111 Stage 1: Current households in affordable housing need ...........................................113 Stage 2: Newly-arising affordable need .......................................................................114 Stage 3: Affordable housing supply .............................................................................115 Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need ...................................................................118 Total gross and net imbalance ......................................................................................118 Relationship between current housing stock and current and future needs ..............119 Technical Appendix D: Agent review ............................................................................... 120 September 2019 Wychavon Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2019 Page | 4 Key findings ...................................................................................................................120 Wychavon District .........................................................................................................120