REVIEW OF STATE GOVERNMENT LONG-TERM POPULATION PROJECTIONS IN REGIONAL QUEENSLAND From the 1970s Onwards W S Cummings B Econ 38 Grafton St (PO Box 2148) Cairns Q 4870 t: 07 4031 2888 m: 0418 871 011 e: [email protected] w: www.cummings.net.au CE Ref J3210 CUMMINGS ECONOMICS ABN: 99 734 489 175 March 2019 POPULATION PROJECTIONS IN REGIONAL QUEENSLAND From the 1970s Onwards Contents Pg SUMMARY OF MAIN CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................... 3 1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................... 4 1.1 General ............................................................................................................................. 4 1.2 The Population Being Measured ...................................................................................... 4 1.3 Regional Boundaries ......................................................................................................... 4 2. ACTUAL COMPARED WITH PAST PROJECTIONS ................................................................ 5 2.1 The 1970s Projections Cairns/Mulgrave........................................................................... 5 2.2 The Early 80s projections .................................................................................................. 5 2.3 Late 80s Projections .......................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Mid 90s Projections .......................................................................................................... 7 2.5 Late 90s Projections .......................................................................................................... 7 2.6 Mid 2000s Projections ...................................................................................................... 8 2.7 Review ............................................................................................................................ 10 3. ACTUAL GROWTH RATES ............................................................................................... 11 3.1 General ........................................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Comparisons ................................................................................................................... 11 3.3 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 14 4. DEALING WITH VOLATILITY – LONG-TERM TRENDS ........................................................ 15 5. LATEST FORWARD PROJECTIONS ................................................................................... 21 CE Ref J3210 March 2019 Page 2/22 POPULATION PROJECTIONS IN REGIONAL QUEENSLAND From the 1970s Onwards SUMMARY OF MAIN CONCLUSIONS • The volatility of growth in the main Central and Northern regions make it difficult to project forward with accuracy. • The earlier tendency to under estimate growth in the South East Queensland appears to have diminished. • The consistent tendency to overestimate growth in the Outback regions has continued. • There has been a tendency in the face of volatility in the Central and Northern regions for projections to be overly influenced by short-term accelerations due to specific industry conditions. • Thus, the 1980s’ projections grossly over emphasised the growth of the Fitzroy, Mackay and Northern regions that are strongly influenced by mining. However, by the late 1990s, the growth in the Far North under the influence of the very strong growth that had taken place in tourism from the 1970s to first half of the 1990s was being over projected into the future. • The 2008 projections again appear to have over emphasised the impact of favourable conditions for mining that proved transitory. • There seems to have been a general tendency to be over optimistic about the impacts of more favourable conditions for growth of mining to stimulate population growth in the relevant regions on a sustained basis. • Looking at longer term trends, there is a very clear picture of the Cairns region and the Wide Bay region leading regional Queensland’s population growth consistently over a 40-year period. • Analysis of latest projections indicate that the forward projections over the next 25 years are not in accordance with those long-term trends and perpetuate a tendency to under project the Cairns region relative to other major regions. CE Ref J3210 March 2019 Page 3/22 POPULATION PROJECTIONS IN REGIONAL QUEENSLAND From the 1970s Onwards 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 General Population projections in regional Queensland have proved to be quite difficult in the past and prone to large variances from what actually occurred. The following paper reviews projections made from the 1970s onwards and what has actually happened and importantly, some comment on why it has happened with a view to helping improve methodology for further projections. 1.2 The Population Being Measured Since 1976, estimated residential populations have been available and this analysis is based on this population measure. 1.3 Regional Boundaries Changes in boundaries being used complicates comparisons of projections with outcomes over time. It should be noted that the regional boundaries used in the three sections of this paper vary. Section 2: Actual Compared with Past Projections – This uses the old “Statistical Division” boundaries as defined by Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and used up to 2011. Over the period under review, there were some changes in boundaries. We believe we have identified and adjusted for the major boundary changes and any not identified wold not significantly affect conclusions. Section 3: Actual Growth Rates – Because of the availability of series on consistent boundaries, this analysis is on post 2011 SA4 boundaries. It should be noted that in most cases, the SA4 boundary coincides with the old Statistical Division boundaries or represents the bulk of the population covered by the old Statistical Division boundaries. Section 5: Dealing with Volatility – Long Term Trends – This analysis is based on some previous work carried out for Cairns Regional Council and is based on commercial regions of the relevant major regional cities. These regions are built up initially using the old Statistical Division boundaries based on the regional cities and adding in the case of Cairns, Townsville, Rockhampton and Toowoomba, the remote areas that looked to those cities for commercial services. It should be noted that in terms of long-term trends, the different boundaries used would not drastically change the comparative patterns exhibited. CE Ref J3210 March 2019 Page 4/22 POPULATION PROJECTIONS IN REGIONAL QUEENSLAND From the 1970s Onwards 2. ACTUAL COMPARED WITH PAST PROJECTIONS 2.1 The 1970s Projections Cairns/Mulgrave Projections of population prepared by W D Scott as part of a review of the Cairns economy c 1976, for, and adopted by the Coordinator Generals Department, indicate just how unexpected the continuing growth of Cairns was in State Government’s official circles at that time. The following table compares the projections against what actually occurred. Table #1: Population Growth Projections adopted by Coordinator Generals Department mid 70s Cairns & Mulgrave LGAs (now Cairns Regional Council LGA) COG Projections Actual Year No. Change on 1976 No. Change on 1976 1976 57,060 57,060 1985 Low 54,420 (-2,640) 75,720 +18,660 High 63,930 +6,330 2000 Low 63,930 +6,870 122,609 +65,544 High 89,690 +32,630 Source: Cummings Economics from Coordinator Generals Department. The low projection had Cairns/Mulgrave going backwards by 1985 and growing only 12% over the 24 years to 2000. High projection had a growth of 57% (1.9% pa) over the 24 years to 2000. Actual growth was 65,000 or 149% (ie. 3.2% pa). These projections were made despite the fact that Cairns/Mulgrave had grown from 27,127 (Census) in 1947 to 57,000 (ERP) in 1976 ie. by 110% over the previous 29 years, ie. an average of 2.6% per annum. Clearly, there was a belief that the long-term population growth rate of the past would not continue into the future. This view was probably influenced by the fact that the growth had fluctuated and went through a slower period between the 1966 to 1971. Clearly, if the long-term growth rate had been used, the forward projection would have been much more accurate and put the 2000 population at 106,000. 2.2 The Early 80s projections The following gives population projections prepared by Premiers Department in 1984 covering the period 1981 – 2006 for Queensland Statistical Divisions. Table #2: Population Growth Projections prepared by Premiers Department for Queensland Statistical Divisions, 1981 - 2006 Statistical Actual Projected 2006 Actual Difference Actual Divisions 1981 (Medium Series) 2006 minus Projected Brisbane 1,096,196 1,635,846 1,820,400 +184,554 Moreton 312,662 679,162 885,897 +206,735 Darling Downs 168,641 231,441 227,074 (-4,367) South West 28,184 36,165 26,408 (-9,757) Wide Bay 153,079 214,628 269,340 +54,712 Fitzroy 145,522 230,652 200,604 (-30,048) Central West 14,324 19,586 11,565 (-8,021) Mackay 89,763 173,615 (1) 146,729 (-26,886) Northern 156,501 229,321 (1) 222,830 (-6,391) North West 40,167 52,417 33,212 (-19,205) Far North 140,165 243,633 247,589 +3,956 Note (1): Adjusted to take Bowen out of Mackay and back into Northern. CE Ref J3210 March