C REDIT LIBANAIS S.A.L. CAPITAL INVESTMENT PROGRAM: ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT CREDIT LIBANAIS HEADQUARTERS A FOCUS ON THE TRANSPORTATION ADLIEH ECTOR S BEIRUT, LEBANON TEL +961.1.608000 JULY 2018 FAX +961.1.608231 [email protected] CAPITAL INVESTMENT PROGRAM: A FOCUS ON THE TRANSPORT SECTOR TABLE OF CONTENTS I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................ 3 II. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 5 III. OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................... 6 A. Existing Road Plans ........................................................................................... 6 i. Description & Conditions ........................................................................................ 6 B. Car Congestion ................................................................................................ 7 i. Evolution & Forecasts ............................................................................................. 7 ii. Impact of Syrian Crisis ........................................................................................... 8 IV. COSTS ............................................................................................................ 9 A. Economic Bill ................................................................................................... 9 B. Environmental Bill .......................................................................................... 10 V. PROJECTS & PLANS ......................................................................................... 11 A. Projects in the Transport Sector ........................................................................ 11 B. Expected Benefits ........................................................................................... 13 i. Economic Impact ................................................................................................. 13 ii. Environmental Impact .......................................................................................... 15 CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 1 CAPITAL INVESTMENT PROGRAM: A FOCUS ON THE TRANSPORT SECTOR SYNOPSIS OF TERMS “BRHIA” Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport “CDR” Council of Development and Reconstruction “CEDRE” Conférence Économique pour le Développement par les Réformes et avec les Entreprises “CTE” Center for Transport Excellence “CH4” Methane ‘‘CIP’’ Capital Investment Program “CO2” Carbon Dioxide “CO2eq.” Carbon Dioxide Equivalent “DGLMT” Directorate General of Land and Maritime Transport “ESIA” Environmental and Social Impact Analysis “GBA” Greater Beirut Area “GDP” Gross Domestic Product “GCI” Global Competitiveness Index “GEF” Global Environment Facility “Gg” Gigagram “GHG” Greenhouse Gas “HCP” Higher Council for Privatization “km” Kilometers “” Square Kilometers “km/hr” Kilometers per Hour “MoE” Ministry of Environment “MoPWT” Ministry of Public Works & Transport “N2O” Nitrous Oxide “PPP” Public Private Partnership “RTA” Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority “UITP” International Association of Public Transportation “UNDP” United Nations Development Programme “UNFCCC” United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change “UNHCR” United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees “UNRWA” United Nations Relief and Works Agency “WEF” World Economic Forum “WHO” World Health Organization CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 2 CAPITAL INVESTMENT PROGRAM: A FOCUS ON THE TRANSPORT SECTOR I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY During April of the current year, the Lebanese government adopted a “Capital Investment Program” (CIP) that focuses on the development and rehabilitation of major infrastructure projects in Lebanon, with a total estimated cost of around $23 billion, extending over a period of 12 years (2018-2030) divided into three phases of 4 years each, and including a total of over 280 projects. This report, drafted by the Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit, presents a brief overview of the transportation sector projects within the CIP, which detain the lion’s share of allocated funds, amounting to $7.38 billion or the equivalence of 32% of the total CIP envisaged cost. Transportation-related investments will be allocated over 24 separate projects, the potential economic and environmental impact of which are highlighted in this paper. Lebanon suffers from severe congestion conditions due to years of neglect and lack of urban planning and major investments in basic infrastructure. Furthermore, in the absence of alternatives such as a comprehensive national public transportation system or railway services, the current fleet of transportation means is largely dominated by private vehicles which account for more than 86% of the entire fleet. Daily entrant vehicles to Beirut via the Northern Highway are estimated at 300,000 according to the World Bank, while around 200,000 and 150,000 vehicles arrive via the Southern and Eastern axes respectively per workday. Moreover, the vehicle stock in Lebanon has been significantly growing over the years whereby in 1997, the total number of vehicles circulating across the road network was almost 783,000 at a time when the population was 3.1 million or 0.25 vehicle per capita, reaching an estimated 1.4 million in 2015, according to the Ministry of Environment, against a total population of 5.85 million (including Syrian refugees), the equivalence of 0.24 car per capita (a ratio that would rise to 0.32 were Syrian refugees excluded). To further aggravate the situation, the Syrian refugee crisis has imposed large burdens on the social, political, environmental, and economic levels, most tangible of which can be spotted on the level of the country’s already decaying infrastructure. Lebanon’s traffic problem imposes heavy burdens and large direct and indirect costs on the country’s economy, setting huge constraints on its growth prospects and hindering it from realizing its potential. Overall, various studies conducted by Lebanese ministries and other international organizations estimate that the economic cost of traffic in Lebanon ranges between 5% and 10% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a ratio that is considered very high, according to the World Bank, when compared to other nations. These costs along with associated opportunity costs display themselves on various levels such as: trade and transport of goods and services, transportation costs (whereby surveys indicate that, generally-speaking, transportation costs constitute an estimated 15% of a regular Lebanese household’s total expenditures, a share that is extensively high when compared to peers in the region), the tragedy of commuting, road safety (whereby the World Health Organization’s (WHO) “Global Status Report on Road Safety 2015” estimated road traffic fatalities at 1,088 in 2015 and GDP loss due to road traffic crashes between 3.2% and 4.8%, higher than most countries around the globe), and investment. Besides the many negative effects traffic conditions and the state of the transportation sector in Lebanon have on its economy, there can be detected additional significant repercussions as well on the country’s environment. According to a study conducted by the Ministry of Environment (MoE) in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the transport sector has a very high contribution to air pollution, accounting alone for over 40% of national oil consumption and almost 23.6% of total Greenhouse Gas (GHGs) emissions in Lebanon. The assessment of the CIP takes into consideration and attempts to depict the extent to which investment in infrastructure influences national performance on the level of both overall CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 3 CAPITAL INVESTMENT PROGRAM: A FOCUS ON THE TRANSPORT SECTOR productivity in the economy and the geographic distribution and spread of economic activity. Moreover, the approach of the proposed CIP is not limited to generally boosting economic growth and developing local infrastructure, but also accounts for the risks and drawbacks of prevailing regional conflicts on the overall economy and the opportunities that will potentially arise in the aftermath of the termination of said conflicts. Undoubtedly, the CIP will have a direct and indirect impact on the Lebanese economy through its positive contribution to: employment (expected to generate an estimated 62.65 million labor days of employment according to the Lebanese government, equivalent to a total of 248,611 job opportunities ~ 20,718 job opportunities per year over the entire period of implementation which spans over 12 years), investment, trade and transport of goods and services, and social cohesion and inequality and poverty reduction. Finally, this research document illustrates the positive repercussions of CIP-related projects on the environment. More specifically, roads rehabilitation and expansion will certainly ease the traffic on major and minor routes outside, at the entrances, and inside the Greater Beirut Area (GBA). As a consequence, less congestion will contribute to decreased GHGs emissions and hence to an improved air quality. Moreover, World Bank estimates reveal that the new public transport scheme proposed under the umbrella of the CIP is projected to decrease congestion by around 16% in the GBA, accounting for a 45,000+ decline in circulating cars per day, equivalent to a reduction in associated