CURRENT POPtJeAVlfHt/£FEORTS Populatlon~ Estimates and Projections U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE' Social and Economic Statistics Administration· BUREAU OF THE CENSUS Series P-25, No. 604 Issued June 1 ~75 ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF ALASKA CENSUS DIVISIONS AND METROPOLITAN AREAS: JULY 1, 1913 AND 1914 This report presents population estimates for July 1, than the recently developed Administrative Records 1973 and provisional esti mates for July 1, 1974 for method, see Current Population Reports, Series P-26, census divisions and metropolitan areas in Alaska. No. 21, "Federal-State Cooperative Program for Local These estimates were prepared by the Bureau of the Population Estimates: Test Results-April 1, 1970," Census as part of its continuing population estimates April 1973. Results of a test of the Administrative program. They are consistent in methodological Records method are presented in Current Population approach with county or county equivalent estimates Reports, Series P-25, No. 547.! for other States jointly prepared by State agencies and the Bureau of the Census under the auspices of the The esti mates shown for July 1, 1973, are based on Federal-State Cooperative Program and published in an average of the following methods, adjusted to agree Current Population Reports, Series P-26. with the July 1, 1973 State estimate published in Series P-25, No. 533. Census division esti mates for July 1, 1971, July 1, 1972, and provisional estimates for July 1,1973, were 1. The Regression (ratio-correlation) method. In published earlier in Current Population Reports, Series the Regression method a multiple regression equation P-25, Nos. 517 and 531. The provisional estimates in is used to relate changes in a number of different data 2 the last cited report are superseded by the numbers series to change in population distribution. The series published here. of data used in the Regression method for Alaska are: elementary school enrollment in grades 1 through 8 This report introduces an additional estimating pro­ plus elementary special and elementary ungraded (X!) cedure using administrative records, made possible by the availability of a new data source. Because of the resultant change in weighting of methods and changes 1 Results of earlier studies were given in "Use of in input data in other methods used, estimates shown Administrative Records for Small-Area Population Estimates," here may not always be comparable with those for the by Meyer Zitter and David L. Word; a paper presented at the earlier years. Annual Meeting of Population Association of America, New Orleans, Louisiana, April 27, 1974. A copy of this paper can be The methods used have been tested against the 1970 obtained by writing Chief, Population Division, Bureau of the census and recent special censuses. A decision on cur­ Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. rent methodology was made by the Bureau of the 2 Descriptions of methodologies are given in Current Census on the basis of the tests. For a more detailed Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 427 and 520. Modifica­ description of the Federal-State Cooperative Program tions made to the methodologies for the current series will be and an analysis of 1970 test results for methods other given in forthcoming reports in Series P-25. For sate by the Superl~tendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, and U.S. Department of Commerce district offices. Prlce;30 cents. Current Population Reports issued In Series P-20, P-23, P-25, P-26, P-27, P-28 (sum­ manes only), P-60, and P-65 are sold as a Single consolidated subscription at $56.00 per year, $14.00 additional for foreign mailing. 2 and three-year averages of resident births (X 2 ). The estimates of the housing inventory. Changes in the p:r;e,c;liction equation for Alaska for the 1970's is given housing inventory are derived from data on building bY"':' permits issued and demolition records, or on data on /I electric meter connections. The provisional July 1, Y '" 0.2087 + 0.5125X 1 + 0.3309X2 1974 estimates for the remaining census divisions were developed by adding the change between 1973 and 2. Component Method II. This method employs 1974 Component Method II estimates to the 1973 esti­ vital statistics to measure natural increase and school mates. All census divisions were subsequently adjusted enrollment to measure net migration. The estimates to agree with the provisional July 1, 1974 State esti­ made by the Census Bureau's Component Method II mate published in Current Population Reports, Series are specific to the civilian population under 65. To this P-25, No. 533. population is added an esti mate of the population 65 and over based on Medicare statistics and an estimate Table 2 of this report presents estimates of the pop­ of the resident military population based on station ulation of metropolitan areas and metropolitan census strength statistics.2 divisions in the State. The titles and definitions of the standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSA's) are those currently defined by the Office of Management and Budget, Executive Office of the President. 3. The Administrative Records method. This newly vEiloped component method uses administrative The 1973 esti mates published in th is report repre­ recO'r'ds (in this instance individual, Federal income'tax sent revisions to census division esti mates shown in returns) to measure civil ian intercounty migration and Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 547. reported vital statistics to estimate natural iricrease.3 They reflect more current data on population change The tax returns are matched for the successive periods than were available at the ti me that the Series P-25 to determine the number of persons whose county of report was prepared. The estimates for census divisions, residence changed during the estimating period. A net incorporated places, and other general purpose govern­ migration rate based on the number of taxpayers ments published in the Series P-25 report were used as changing residence is derived; this rate is then assumed the basis for the distri bution of funds under the State to apply to the total population. This estimate is made and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972. See that specific to the civilian population under age 65 byex­ report for a description of methods, assumptions, and cluding from the migration computations data relating Ii mitations of the esti mates. to persons 65 years and over. These estimates are then combined with independent estimates of the popula­ Corresponding esti mates for other States in the pro­ tion 65 and over based on Medicare statistics. The gram will be published as they become available. The other components of population change-births, appendix table shows reports published to date for deaths, immigration, net movement between the States in the 1973-74 series, together with those pub­ Armed Forces and civilian population, and resident military population-are identical with Component lished earlier in the decade. Method I I (described above). The 1970 census total for the State shown on the The provisional July 1, 1974 estimate for Anchor­ table may differ slightly from the sum of the census age Census Division was developed by adding the divisions because of corrections made subsequent to average change between 1973 and 1974 estimates the release of the official State figure. All census divi­ based on Component Method I I and the Housing Unit sion populations for 1970 reflect the most recent cor­ method to the 1973 estimate. In the Housing Unit rections in the census count. The only census division method the esti mates of the population are based on with a correction of more than 500 is Anchorage. The estimates presented in the table have been 2 See footnote 2 on page 1. 3 For a discussion of this methodology see Donald E. rounded to the nearest hundred without being adjusted ,Starsinic, "Development of Population Estimates for Revenue to the State total, which was independently rounded to Sharing Areas," in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census Tract the nearest thousand. Percentages are based on un· Papers, Series GE-40, No. 10; and Zitter and Word, op cit. rounded numbers. 3 Table 1. ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF ALASKA CENSUS DIVISIONS: JULY 1, 1973 AND JULY 1, 1974 (State estimates are shown to the nearest thousand, census division estimates to the nearest hundred) Components of change, Change 1 1970 19742 to 1974 1970 to July 1, April 1, 1974 July 1, 1970 Net migration Census division ( provi- 1973 (census )' Deaths sional) Number Percent Births Number Percent 11.6 30,000 6,000 11,000 3.6 Alaska ..••.•...••.. :J37,000 330,000 302,173 35,000 -1,200 -14.8 7,400 7,400 8,221 -800 -9.5 500 100 Aleutian Islands .....••.. 9.0 145,800 126,385 22,400 , 17.8 13,200 2,100 11,400 Anchorage. 0 ............... 148,800 (Z) (2) -100 -13.9 Angoon •••.••.•.•••••••.•. 400 500 503 -100 -11.3 47.1 300 100 1,400 40.9 Barrow-North Slope .....•• 5,100 3,700 3,451 1,600 800 9.8 900 200 (Z) 0.5 Bethel. •.•••..•.••..••... 8,500 8,400 7,767 I (Z) -1. 8 100 (2) -100 -4.4 Bristol Bay Borough •••••• 1,100 1,100 1,147 200 6.7 300 100 (Z) (Z) Bristol Bay ...•....•...•• 3,700 3,700 3,485 2.6 100 10O (Z) -0.4 Cordova-McCarthy ••••••••• 1,900 2, 000 1,857 (Z) 1.1 5,000 700 -3,800 -S.3 Fairbanks .. , .. , ..•.•..•.• 46,300 46,800 45,864 500 30.1 100 100 400 25.5 Haines ..•••.••.•...••.. · . 2,000 1,700 1,504 500 1,100 400 1,500 11.0 Juneau, .•..•..•.••...••.