Assessing the Future of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles: The xEV Industry Insider Report Based on private onsite interviews with leading technologists and executives advanced automotive batteries Company Visits Assessing the Future of Automakers/Automotive Systems: Hybrid and Electric Vehicles • Audi • Opel AG A comprehensive analysis of the plans of major • AVL • Porsche automakers and regional market conditions • BMW • PSA Peugeot • Chrysler Citroën worldwide, set against the cost-benefit ratios of • Continental AG • Renault emerging vehicles and battery technologies • Daimler • Robert Bosch • Ford • Toyota Key Topics • General Motors • Valeo • Honda • Volkswagen • Low and high-voltage hybrid market challenges • Hyundai • ZF Sachs for EV-PHEV • Magna E-Car • The market challenges for EV-PHEV • Mitsubishi Motors • Future technology and market positions of automotive Lead-Acid and Nickel-Metal Hydride batteries and ultracapacitors Battery Producers: • Vehicle- and battery-market projections • A123 Systems • LG Chem • Cell and pack technology • AESC • Li Energy Japan • Deutsche Accumotive • Primearth EV Energy Benefits • Dow Kokam • Panasonic-Sanyo Automakers: • Exide • Robert Bosch Benefit from the Report balanced analysis of • GS Yuasa • Samsung the future cost, performance, and durability of • Hitachi • SK Innovation • Johnson Controls • Toshiba advanced automotive batteries Battery producers: Other Participants: Gain insights into the direction of both the advanced automotive market and individual • California Air • NEC Devices carmakers Resources Board • Showa Denko Material producers: • Hitachi Chemical • Umicore • Mitsubishi Chemical Learn about the prospects of battery materials in the xEV market Energy providers: Stay abreast of the technology and trends behind “We consider AAB the leading industry organization for automotive batteries; I always find great insight in Dr. vehicle electrification Anderman’s conclusions and outlook” William J. Wallace, Director of Global Battery Systems, Corporate and financial investors: General Motors Profit from this comprehensive assessment of the technology and market challenges to better guide “Dr. Anderman is one of the most knowledgeable people your investment decisions I have met in the battery field, particularly with regards to automotive applications. He exhibits a rare blend in his deep understanding of the technology and the Published markets. He is a consultant of the highest value.” Richard A. Clark, New Technology Business Director, Morgan First edition May 2013 Advanced Materials and Technology Second edition September 2013 Will the advances in battery technology Table of Contents be sufficient to sustain market growth, Executive Summary 1. xEV Vehicle Technology independent of government incentives 2. HEV Battery Technology 3. Battery Requirements and Battery Selection for Each and regulations? Hybrid-Vehicle Category 4. Batteries for EVs & PHEVs 5. xEV Vehicle Market HEV 6. Battery Market for xEVs • What are the new opportunities for low-voltage CHAPTER I: Introduction and Hybrid-Vehicle Technologies hybrids? 1. Introduction 2. Powertrain Technology • Where is the market headed for moderate and 3. Electrical Power on Board Vehicles strong hybrids? 4. The Stop/Start Function 5. Hybrid-Vehicle Powertrain Architectures • What are the crucial challenges for Lead-Acid 6. Levels of Powertrain Hybridization and ultracapacitor technologies? 7. Hybridization of Specialty Vehicles • Does the Nickel-Metal Hydride technology have 8. Hybridization Summary lasting potential? CHAPTER II: Energy Storage Technologies for HEVs 1. High-Power Battery Technology Key Attributes • What are the winning Lithium-Ion battery 2. Energy-Storage Systems and Module/Pack Technology designs for each of the hybrid architectures? 3. Lead-Acid Batteries 4. Nickel-Metal Hydride Batteries 5. Lithium-Ion Batteries PHEVs 6. Ultracapacitors 7. Summary and Comparison • What is the ideal electric range? CHAPTER III: Battery Requirements and the Choice of • What battery cost is needed for a positive Battery for Each Hybrid Vehicle Category business case and is it feasible? 1. Overview 2. Basic Requirements and Conventional SLI Applications • Which vehicles and battery makers will take 3. Micro-1 – Stop/Start Vehicles with No Regenerative Braking significant market share? 4. Micro-2 – Stop/Start Vehicles with Regenerative Braking 5. Mild-1 – 48V Systems 6. Mild-2 Hybrid Vehicles EVs 7. Moderate Power-Assist Hybrids 8. Strong-Hybrid Vehicles • Where is the EV market and who are the 9. Summary long-term players? 10. Power-assist Fuel-Cell Hybrid Vehicles 11. Hybridization of Specialized Heavy Vehicles • Cell and pack cost, how far down can they go? CHAPTER IV: Lithium-Ion EV and PHEV Battery Technology • Where are the business opportunities for 1. Battery Manufacturing and Cost existing and new players? 2. Battery Design and Key Attributes 3. Battery Durability and Safety 4. Technology Enhancement Roadmap CHAPTER V: xEV Vehicle Market Ordering Information 1. Market Drivers and Challenges for xEVs Report price includes 2. Market Conditions in Key Regions 3. Market Forecast for xEVs two encrypted electronic copies and 4. Activities of Key Automakers one hardbound copy: ......................................$7,600 CHAPTER VI: Battery Market for xEVs 1. Batteries for Micro-Hybrids Upgrade to a corporate network license .......$4,800 2. Mild, Moderate, and Strong HEV Battery Market One day consulting visit 3. PHEV Battery Market 4. EV Battery Market (including travel expenses): ...................................$2,800 5. The xEV Battery Market Summary 6. Advanced Automotive Li-Ion Cell Materials Market Additional copies: ..............................................$125 7. Cell and Pack Business Structure 8. Notes on Key xEV Battery Producers The Vision Reducing the harmful impact of vehicles on the environment is a vital task for the industrial world. With the introduction of advanced electrical and hybrid functions in vehicles, the automotive industry is now approaching cost-effective ways to reduce fuel consumption and emissions. Energy storage technology is the key to the commercial success of these advanced vehicles. The objective of the Report is to make available to industry professionals around the world infor- mation that will help them focus their financial and human resources on the most technologically viable and economically affordable solutions to the future needs of automotive energy storage. It will thus contribute to the development and support of more eco-friendly vehicles, a cleaner environment, and more responsible usage of our planet’s resources. The Author Dr. Menahem Anderman, President Total Battery Consulting, Inc. Menahem Anderman has directed development programs for high-power nickel-based and Li-Ion batteries as well as electrochemical capacitors. His corporate experience ranges from materials research, cell design, and product develop- ment, to battery-product application, market development, technology and business assessment and general management. He holds a PhD with honors in Physical Chemistry from the University of California, and founded Total Battery Consulting in 1996 to offer consulting services in lithium- and nickel-based battery development and application, intellectual property issues in battery-related markets, and investment assessment. Dr. Anderman provides technology and market assessments to international clients and government agencies including the U.S. Senate, the California Air Resources Board, the National Research Council, the U.S. Department of Energy, and others. As the world’s leading independent expert on advanced automo- tive batteries, Dr. Anderman is routinely quoted in news and business journals including The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and The New York Times. The Company In 2000, Dr. Anderman founded Advanced Automotive Batteries (AAB) to pro- vide up-to-date technology and market assessments of the rapidly growing field of energy storage for advanced automotive applications. Advanced Automotive Batteries published the 2002 and 2007 Advanced Automotive Battery Industry Reports, the 2005 Ultracapacitor Report and the 2010 Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Opportunity Report. Advanced Automotive Batteries also organizes the main international event in the industry: the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC), with Dr. Anderman serving as Chairman. For over a decade, the annual AABC has attracted professionals from the hybrid and electric vehicle world and the three tiers of the battery supply chain. Renowned as a global meeting place, AABC features presentations and discussions that address the most pivotal issues affecting the technology and market of advanced vehicles and the batteries that will power them. In 2010, to keep pace with the rapidly expanding technology and market development, AAB started hosting two conferences annually, in the U.S. and Europe for the first four years (together attracting an average of 1,400 participants). AABC 2014 will take place in Atlanta, Georgia, February 3 – 7 and the first AABC Asia will take place in Kyoto, Japan, May 19-23, 2014. advanced automotive batteries P.O. Box 1059 Oregon House, CA 95962 tel: 1 (530) 692 0140 fax: 1 (530) 692 0142 [email protected] www.advancedautobat.com.