City of Redlands - Redlands Crossing Center Draft EIR Appendix J: Urban Decay Michael Brandman Associates H:\Client (PN-JN)\0629\06290016\EIR\06290016 Sec99-00 Appendices Title TOC Dividers.doc City of Redlands - Redlands Crossing Center Draft EIR J.1 - Urban Decay Analysis Michael Brandman Associates H:\Client (PN-JN)\0629\06290016\EIR\06290016 Sec99-00 Appendices Title TOC Dividers.doc DRAFT URBAN DECAY ANALYSIS FOR REDLANDS CROSSING RETAIL CENTER April 12, 2011 Prepared for: Michael Brandman Associates Prepared by: THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC. 24835 E. La Palma Avenue, Suite I Yorba Linda, California 92887 Telephone: (714) 692-9596 Fax: (714) 692-9597 www.natelsondale.com TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................1 II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................6 II-A. Summary Conclusions Regarding Potential for Urban Decay............................................6 II-B. Overview of Existing Retail Market in Redlands ...............................................................10 II-C. Impact of Walmart Grocery Component ...........................................................................13 II-D. Impact of Proposed Project’s “GAFO” Sales ....................................................................15 II-E. Impact of Proposed Project’s Restaurant Space ..............................................................16 II-F. Impact of proposed Fuel Facility.......................................................................................16 II-G. Potential for Reuse of Existing Wal-Mart Site...................................................................17 II-H. Potential Impacts to Redlands Downtown Area................................................................19 II-I. Cumulative Impacts of Planned/Pending Retail Projects..................................................20 II-J. Cumulative Urban Decay Analysis....................................................................................29 III. RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY – SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS .......................32 III-A. Market Area Boundaries ...................................................................................................32 III-B. Population and Income Levels..........................................................................................34 III-C. Food Sales Demand .........................................................................................................35 III-D. Supermarket Sales Demand.............................................................................................35 III-E. Potential Supermarket Sales in CRTA..............................................................................36 III-F. Potential Sales Impacts to Existing Supermarkets in the CRTA ......................................36 III-G. Potential Cumulative Sales Impacts to Existing Supermarkets in the CRTA ...................38 IV. RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY – REGIONAL RETAIL ANALYSIS ..................40 IV-A. Market Area Boundaries ...................................................................................................40 IV-B. Population and Income Levels..........................................................................................43 IV-C. Retail Sales Demand ........................................................................................................44 IV-D. Distribution of Resident Retail Expenditures ....................................................................45 IV-E. Capture Rate Analysis ......................................................................................................46 IV-F. Potential Retail Sales Volumes.........................................................................................48 IV-G. Supportable Retail Space .................................................................................................50 APPENDIX A: COMMUNITY RETAIL TRADE AREA – RETAIL DEMAND MODEL APPENDIX B: DERIVATION OF GROCERY DEMAND FACTORS APPENDIX C: REGIONAL RETAIL TRADE AREA – RETAIL DEMAND MODEL APPENDIX D: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS (SCAG) DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS APPENDIX E: RETAIL INVENTORY APPENDIX F: PLANNED / PENDING RETAIL PROJECTS – SECONDARY MARKET AREAS LIST OF TABLES Table II-1: Summary Retail Supply/Demand Projections Based on Cumulative Projects Analysis City of Redlands .....8 Table II-2: Grocery-anchored Shopping Centers Community Retail Trade Area .........................................................11 Table II-3: Summary of Retail Space by Type Regional Retail Trade Area – PMA (City of Redlands) ........................12 Table II-4: Potential Sales Impacts to Existing Supermarkets Community Retail Trade Area In thousands of Constant Dollars ....................................................................................................................................................14 Table II-5: Potential Demand for NEW Retail Space Regional Retail Trade Area – PMA GAFO Retail Categories ....15 Table II-6: Potential Demand for NEW Retail Space (Expressed in Square Feet) Redlands Regional Trade Area - PMA........................................................................................................................................................18 Table II-7: Planned and Pending Supermarket Projects Community Retail Trade Area ..............................................20 Table II-8: Potential Cumulative Sales Impacts to Existing Supermarkets Based on Opening of Planned and Pending Supermarkets Community Retail Trade Area .........................................................................................22 Table II-9: Planned and Pending Retail Projects – Non-Supermarket Regional Retail Trade Area – PMA..................24 Table II-10: Potential Demand for NEW Retail Space by Retail Category (non-supermarket) .....................................25 Table II-11: Projected Vacancy Rate – HIGH SCENARIO Regional Retail Trade Area – City of Redlands Based on Planned and Pending Projects ...............................................................................................................27 Table II-12: Projected Vacancy Rate – LOW SCENARIO Regional Retail Trade Area – City of Redlands Based on Planned and Pending Projects ...............................................................................................................28 Table III-1: Population Projections by Year Community Retail Trade Area ..................................................................34 Table III-2: Per Capita Income Community Retail Trade Area .....................................................................................34 Table III-3: Income and Food Sales Demand Community Retail Trade Area In thousands of 2010 constant dollars ..35 Table III-4: Total Demand for Supermarket Sales Community Retail Trade Area In thousands of 2010 constant dollars ................................................................................................................................................................36 Table III-5: Existing Supermarkets’ Sales Potential Community Retail Trade Area In thousands of 2010 constant dollars .....................................................................................................................................................36 Table III-6: Potential Capture of Market Area Demand – Supermarket Sales (post Walmart) Community Retail Trade Area In thousands of 2010 constant dollars............................................................................................37 Table III-7: Potential Sales Impacts to Existing Supermarkets Community Retail Trade Area In thousands of 2010 constant dollars ......................................................................................................................................38 Table III-8: Potential Sales Impacts to Existing Supermarkets – Cumulative Analysis Community Retail Trade Area.39 Table IV-1: Population Projections by Year Regional Retail Trade Area......................................................................43 Table IV-2: Per Capita Income Levels Regional Retail Trade Area..............................................................................43 Table IV-3: Total Retail Sales As a Percentage of Aggregate Personal Income San Bernardino County....................44 Table IV-4: Total Retail Sales As a Percentage of Aggregate Personal Income Redlands Regional Trade Area........45 Table IV-5: Income and Retail Demand Regional Retail Trade Area In thousands of constant dollars........................45 Table IV-6: Distribution of Retail Sales by Category Regional Retail Trade Area ........................................................46 Table IV-7: Capture Rates of Primary Market Area Demand Regional Retail Trade Area ...........................................47 Table IV-8: Capture Rate of Secondary Market Area Demand Regional Retail Trade Area ........................................48 Table IV-9: Comparison of Potential Demand with Actual Sales Non-Grocery Retail Categories City of Redlands In thousands of dollars................................................................................................................................49 Table IV-10: Total Potential Capture of Demand for New Retail Sales City of Redlands In thousands of constant