Atlantic Council DINU PATRICIU EURASIA CENTER A Roadmap for Ukraine Delivering on the Promise of the Maidan A Roadmap for Ukraine Delivering on the Promise of the Maidan © 2014 The Atlantic Council of the United States. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Atlantic Council, except in the case of brief quotations in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. Please direct inquiries to: Atlantic Council 1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor Washington, DC 20005 ISBN: 978-1-61977-064-5 Cover photo credit: Mstyslav Chernov/Unframe, licensed under Creative Commons. July 2014 FOREWORD Last fall, as Ukrainians massed on the Maidan to build a “Team Ukraine.” We quickly buttressed our effort demand a better government and closer ties to Europe, by bringing on board former US Ambassador to Ukraine the Atlantic Council began to mobilize on Ukraine. An Atlantic Council delegation visited Warsaw and Kyiv Center and the leader of our Ukraine in Europe Initiative. in March to map out our strategy, and during the visit John Herbst as the director of the Dinu Patriciu Eurasia of Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk to the Deputy Director David Koranyi played an instrumental Council that same month, we launched a one hundred- role serving both as acting director of our Dinu Patriciu day campaign to galvanize the transatlantic community Eurasia Center while also leading our energy tiger team behind Ukraine’s democratic future in Europe. on Ukraine. Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security Senior Fellow Ian Brzezinski, who once worked As the crisis worsened, we convened at the highest in Ukraine’s parliament as well as the US Congress, levels, making vital connections between Ukrainian, led our security-focused policy team. Board Director American, and European policymakers and thought and former Undersecretary of Defense Walt Slocombe leaders. We deployed our substantial expertise to led our red team exercises with the support of US launch “red team” exercises that anticipated Russia’s Navy Senior Fellow Chris Musselman. Irena Chalupa, actions and outlined strategies to respond to likely the former head of the Ukrainian service at Radio scenarios. Our rapid response working groups (“tiger Free Europe/Radio Liberty, joined as an editor of the teams”) made recommendations on issues fundamental UkraineAlert and coordinator of our public diplomacy to Ukraine’s success. An Atlantic Council delegation reported on and from Ukraine for the Washington Post, together, to Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and other leaders tigerwrote team. and edited Our online a tremendous editor Jim number Rupert, ofwho insightful once delivered this report, which brings all of these findings articles and blogs for the UkraineAlert. And throughout, shared with American and European policymakers. Senior Adviser Diane Zeleny has provided strategic in Kyiv the first week of July. The findings are also being guidance to help magnify the impact of our work. The Council’s enduring commitment to Europe and the transatlantic relationship has been the focal point of None of this would have been possible without the generous support of the Atlantic Council Board of Europe Initiative to harness the opportunities Ukraine ournow work has to this become year. Ina sovereign,June, we launched prosperous, the Ukraineand united in to his fellow board members to support the Council’s Directors,response to especially historic developmentsGeorge Lund, whoin Europe’s issued anEast. appeal Kerry, and many Congressional and European leaders nation.have selected Vice President the Atlantic Joe CouncilBiden, Secretary as a platform of State to reach John Americans and Europeans concerned about the setbacks We offer a special thanks to George and his colleagues Adrienne Arsht, Robert Gelbard, Paula Dobriansky, Julie in Poland, we honored the people of the Maidan with Finley,Andrew Bahaa Prozes, Hariri, and W.Ian DeVier Hague, Pierson Stephen for Hadley, their support.Brian ina Freedom the region. Award, At our which fifth annualwas accepted Wrocław by Globaldemocracy Forum Henderson, Martin van Heuven, Alexander Mirtchev, activists Ruslana Lyzhychko and Kateryna Kruk. To keep Our Ukraine work will be sustained beyond this report Ukraine on the agenda in Western capitals, we launched by the generous support of many others including a high-impact biweekly newsletter, UkraineAlert, which has become a must-read for its thoughtful, in-depth analysis of developments on the ground. theFurthermore, Smith Richardson the Council Foundation, is working the to George expand the Chopivskyimpact and Foundation, reach of our James Ukraine C. Temerty, in Europe and Initiative Chevron. To accomplish all of this, we turned to a committed and by working more closely with the Ukrainian World talented team. Executive Vice President Damon Wilson Congress. and Senior Fellow Adrian Karatnycky, who both have long experience dealing with Ukraine, joined forces With the support of these friends, the Atlantic Council to launch the Council’s new initiative, connecting our is doing its part to help Ukraine succeed and to ensure knowledge of the situation on the ground with our North American and European policy plays an effective ability to navigate policy circles in Washington and supporting role. Through this work, the Council Europe. Building on the Ukraine work initiated by Vice continues to mark our commitment to a vibrant, effective President Fran Burwell in previous years, we set out to transatlantic community and a Europe whole, free, and at peace. Frederick Kempe President & CEO Atlantic Council TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ..................................................................... 1 ENSURING UKRAINE’S PROSPEROUS FUTURE ........................................ 2 STRENGTHENING UKRAINE’S NATIONAL DEFENSE ................................... 4 SECURING UKRAINE’S ENERGY SECTOR ............................................. 7 TELLING UKRAINE’S STORY AT HOME AND ABROAD ................................. 11 UKRAINE CRISIS RED TEAM EXERCISES ............................................ 15 UKRAINE CRISIS RED TEAM OVERVIEW. 15 OVERT SCENARIO .......................................................... 16 COVERT/DENIABLE SCENARIO .............................................. 18 OSTENSIBLY LEGITIMATE SCENARIO ......................................... 20 DELAY/DE-ESCALATE SCENARIO ............................................ 22 A Roadmap for Ukraine INTRODUCTION Ukraine is once again at a potential turning point relationships and a Europe whole, free, and at peace, the in its young history. It missed the opportunity at Council is uniquely positioned to address this critical independence and during the Orange Revolution to make issue and provide the necessary guidance and expertise a decisive break with an authoritarian past and move for these ends. decisively toward an open, market-oriented society. Yet Ukrainian civil society remained vibrant and late last year once again spoke out against the country’s UKRAINE IS authoritarian and corrupt leaders. As a result of the protests from an enraged citizenry, then-President ONCE AGAIN AT ViktorAt that Yanukovychpoint, a severe fled domestic the country crisis for in Russia. Ukraine became A POTENTIAL an international one. Angry that its preferred Ukrainian politician was no longer in power, the Kremlin took steps TURNING POINT IN that was done, Moscow began an insurgency in Ukraine’s to seize Crimea, first clandestinely and then openly. Once ITS YOUNG HISTORY. Ukrainian volunteers to take up the struggle against their Broadly speaking, the new Ukrainian government of owneast. government,Having trouble the finding Kremlin a sufficient sent in special number forces of and President Petro Poroshenko must do two things to intelligence operatives to run an insurgency and to hire create a secure, democratic, and market-based society. any locals willing to join. When those numbers did not First, the new government must stave off the Russian prove adequate, Moscow sent in its own mercenaries. aggression and take back full control of eastern Ukraine, while continuing to call the world’s attention to Russia’s The Russian aggression against Ukraine was a major “annexation” of Crimea. Second, it must undertake the violation of the post-Cold War order in Europe. It explicitly major reforms needed to end corruption and remove the violated Russia’s obligation in the 1994 Budapest oppressive hand of government on the economy, and to Memorandum—under which Ukraine gave up its nuclear ensure the rule of law and the unobstructed activities of weapons—to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This a wide spectrum of political parties and civil society. prompted the United States and the European Union (EU) to level limited sanctions on Russia and to threaten major To help Ukraine in this effort, the Council assembled sanctions against whole sectors of the Russian economy if an eminent group of experts to look at key problems the Kremlin’s aggression continued. facing Poroshenko. The papers on the economy, energy sector, the security sector, public diplomacy, The Atlantic Council was drawn to this issue not just by and various scenarios for Russian activities in Ukraine the inspiring story of a still young nation trying to throw presented in this report are the result of their work. off the shackles of its past and face down a much larger These papers serve as an invitation