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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. A Cost Analysis of the U.S. Air Force Overseas Posture Informing Strategic Choices Patrick Mills, Adam Grissom, Jennifer Kavanagh, Leila Mahnad, Stephen M. Worman C O R P O R A T I O N A Cost Analysis of the U.S. Air Force Overseas Posture Informing Strategic Choices Patrick Mills, Adam Grissom, Jennifer Kavanagh, Leila Mahnad, Stephen M. Worman RAND Project AIR FORCE Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Control Number: 2013948441 ISBN: 978-0-8330-8037-0 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA DOHA, QA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface Overseas military presence has been a central concern of American grand strategy for more than a century, dating to the emergence of the United States as a great power in the aftermath of the Spanish-American War. It is equally central to the contemporary debate on the future of American grand strategy in the 21st century. Three particular policies—the “pivot to Asia,” a drawdown of U.S. troops from Europe, and two more possible rounds of Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)—are presently the topic of much debate by analysts, policymakers, and military officials alike. The RAND Corporation has drilled down on one common element of these policies—overseas U.S. military basing—to answer the following question: What are the potential cost savings associated with altering the U.S. overseas military posture? The analysis in this report estimates the costs associated with Air Force installations and units to provide further insight into the costs and benefits of overseas basing. Our analysis takes three separable elements of overseas basing (force size, force location, and base location), assesses the costs of altering them individually, and then constructs a cost analysis to frame a range of policy options. This document summarizes the findings from our cost calculations, offering a comparison of recurring savings resulting from altering the U.S. overseas presence. The analysis should be of interest to planners, programmers, and policymakers involved in the contemporary debate on grand strategy, particularly those that assess overseas military posture. This research was co-sponsored by the Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force (AF/CV), the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, Plans, and Requirements (AF/A3/5), and the Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Plans and Programs (AF/A8). The study was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2012 study titled “A New American Grand Strategy?” RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................. v Tables ............................................................................................................................................. vi Summary ....................................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................... x Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................. xi The Costs of Commitment: Cost Analysis of Overseas Air Force Basing ..................................... 1 Components of Overseas Presence ........................................................................................................... 2 An Overview of Air Force Spending ........................................................................................................ 5 Cost Categories for Overseas Basing ....................................................................................................... 7 Modeling Installation Support Costs ........................................................................................................ 8 Regression Analysis of Installation Support Costs ................................................................................. 12 Other Cost Categories ............................................................................................................................. 15 Summary of Results ................................................................................................................................ 19 Cost-Sharing Arrangements ................................................................................................................... 19 Applying Cost Factors to Policy Options ............................................................................................... 20 Realigning Forces ............................................................................................................................... 20 Cutting Force Structure ...................................................................................................................... 22 Closing Bases ..................................................................................................................................... 25 Summary Cost Analysis Example ...................................................................................................... 26 Putting Costs in Context ......................................................................................................................... 27 Implications ............................................................................................................................................ 28 Appendix: Details of Regression Analyses ................................................................................... 31 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................