WILDLIFE MONOGRAPHS WILDLIFE A PUBLICATION OF THE WILDLIFE SOCIETY M O ONOGRAPHSNOGRAPHS Vol. 197, May 2017 n The Wildlife Society (TWS), is an international, non-profi t organization founded in 1937 to represent and service wildlife professionals in all areas of conservation and resource management. The primary goal of The Wildlife Society is to create a worldwide community of networked experts and practitioners who together promote excellence in wildlife stewardship through science and education. The Wildlife Society is committed to a world where human beings and wildlife co-exist, where the decisions that infl uence the management and conservation of wildlife and their habitats are made after careful consideration of the relevant scientifi c information and data, with the active involvement of professional wildlife managers, and with the political support of an informed citizenry. 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Hellgren, Editor Professor and Chair Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation University of Florida Gainesville, FL 32611-0430 Consulting Editors: Patrik Byholm, Novia University of Applied Sciences Anonymous Editorial Assistants: Allison Cox, Gainesville, FL Anna Knipps, Lakewood, CO Funding was provided by USDA Forest Service, Southwestern Region USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Joint Fire Science Program Arizona Game and Fish Department Publication costs were provided by USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station For submission instructions, subscription and all other information visit: http://www.wildlifejournals.org. Submit manuscripts via our online manuscript submission website: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/jwm. The Wildlife Society believes that increased awareness and appreciation of wildlife values is an important objective. Society publications are one means of doing this. 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Authorization to photocopy items for internal and personal use is granted by the copyright holder for libraries and other users registered with their local Reproduction Rights Organisation (RRO), e.g. Copyright Clearance Center (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA (www.copyright.com), provided the appropriate fee is paid directly to the RRO. This consent does not extend to other kinds of copying such as copying for general distribution, for advertising or promotional purposes, for creating new collective works or for resale. Special requests should be addressed to: [email protected] Production Editor: Karen Harmon (email: [email protected]). This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Wiley’s Corporate Citizenship initiative seeks to address the environmental, social, economic, and ethical challenges faced in our business and which are important to our diverse stakeholder groups. Since launching the initiative, we have focused on sharing our content with those in need, enhancing community philanthropy, reducing our carbon impact, creating global guidelines and best practices for paper use, establishing a vendor code of ethics, and engaging our colleagues and other stakeholders in our efforts. Follow our progress at www.wiley.com/go/citizenship View this journal online at wileyonlinelibrary.com Printed in USA by The Sheridan Group Cover Image: Adult female (band code R6) northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), one of the longer-lived and more reproductive females on the Kaibab Plateau, Arizona, USA. R6 was banded on the Kaibab Plateau as a nestling in 1998 and recruited into the local breeding population in 2000. She was unusual in that she nested in 4 different territories (the great majority of Kaibab goshawks nested on 1 territory only), had 5 sequentially different mates (the majority of females had 1 or 2 lifetime mates), and laid eggs in 9 years. However, 5 of her 9 nest attempts failed. Still she produced 7 fl edglings, a lifetime reproduction in the 70th percentile of 250 breeding females on the Kaibab Plateau. Photo by Christie Van Cleave. WWMON_197MON_197 ((1)_COVER2_3.indd1)_COVER2_3.indd 1 227/03/177/03/17 44:56:56 ppmm Wildlife Monographs 197:1–40; 2017; DOI: 10.1002/wmon.1023 Long-Term Demography of the Northern Goshawk in a Variable Environment RICHARD T. REYNOLDS,1 Rocky Mountain Research Station, 240 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA JEFFREY S. LAMBERT, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 240 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA CURTIS H. FLATHER, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 240 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA GARY C. WHITE, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA BENJAMIN J. BIRD, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 240 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA L. SCOTT BAGGETT, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 240 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA CARRIE LAMBERT, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 240 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA SHELLEY BAYARD DE VOLO, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 240 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA ABSTRACT The Nearctic northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillis) is a resident of conifer, broadleaf, and mixed forests from the boreal to the southwestern montane regions of North America. We report on a 20-year mark-recapture investigation (1991–2010) of the distribution and density of breeders, temporal and spatial variability in breeding, nestling sex ratios, local versus immigrant recruitment of breeders, breeding age structure, age-specific survival rates, and rate of population change (l) of this species on the Kaibab Plateau, a forested sky island in northern Arizona, USA. We used an information-theoretic approach to rank models representing alternative hypotheses about the influence of annual fluctuations in precipitation on the annual frequency of goshawk breeding and fledgling production. We studied 125 goshawk breeding territories, representing approximately 87% of an estimated 144 total territories based on a mean distance of 3.8 km between territory centers in a 1,728-km2 study area. The salient demographic feature of the population was extensive annual variation in breeding, which manifested as large inter-annual variation in proportions of pairs laying eggs, brood sizes, nest failure rates, and fledgling production. The percent of territories known in a prior year in which eggs were laid in a current year ranged from 8% to 86% (x ¼ 37%, SE ¼ 4.51), annual mean nest failure rate (active nests that failed) ranged from 12% to 48% (overall x ¼ 23%, SE ¼ 2.48), and mean annual brood size of successful nests (fledged 1 fledgling) ranged from 1.5 young to 2.5 young (overall x ¼ 2.0 young, SE ¼ 0.03). Inter-annual variationinreproductioncloselytracked inter-annual variation in precipitation, which we hypothesize influenced primary forest productivity and bird and mammal prey abundance. The best breeding years (1992–1993, 77–87% of pairs laid eggs) were coincident with a record- long El Nino-Southern~ Oscillation (ENSO) wet period and the worst breeding year (2003; 8% of pairs laid eggs) was the