ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE SERENGETI ECOSYSTEM OF THE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MARA RIVER CATCHMENT IN KENYA E.J. Gereta, E. Wolanski and E.A.T. Chiombola JANUARY, 2003 Amala Project Acknowledgement Very sincere gratitudes and appreciation are extended to all individuals and organisations that offered direct or indirect assistance to this study and preparation of the report especially the district authorities of Serengeti, Musoma Rural and Tarime Districts. It will be impossible to mention everybody who has contributed to this work. However, without the support of the following, this work could not be done. Dr. Markus Borner of Frankfurt Zoological Society for funding and supporting the study. Dr. Simon Mduma for his contribution in the preparation of the text based on his rich knowledge and experience of the Serengeti ecosystem. Mr. G. Bigurube, the Acting Director General of Tanzania National Parks for his encouragement in supporting the study. Prof. Tony Sinclair for his comments based on his many years of research in the Serengeti ecosystem on the study and his encouragement. Special thanks should also go to the Chief Park Warden, Serengeti National Park and his staff especially Mr. Chuwa, Park Warden, Outreach Programme for their tireless support to the study and provision of logistics to visit various District Authorities when collecting data. Also not to be forgotten Mr. David Mattaka of Lighthouse Group for taking his time to go through the report and edit it to the perfection needed. Last but not least, Mr. Festo of FZS for handling all administrative logistics in the facilitation of the study. This study is dedicated to TANAPA in trying to conserve and manage the Serengeti ecosystem sustainably. i Amala Project TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................ 1 AMALA PROJECT............................................................................................................ 1 DEGAZETTEMENT OF THE MAU FOREST....................................................................... 1 DISLOCATION OF SURROUNDING ECOSYSTEMS.......................................................... 2 SERENGETI – MARA ECOSYSTEM .................................................................................. 2 LAKES NATRON, NAKURU AND BOGORIA ECOSYSTEMS............................................. 2 THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT TO TANZANIA.................................................... 3 AS NOTED ABOVE, THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THESE PROJECTS IN KENYA WILL OBVIOUSLY AFFECT THE ECOSYSTEMS OF THE SURROUNDING REGION, AND WITH IT, THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DYNAMICS OF THE PEOPLE OF THE REGION. TOURISM INDUSTRY WILL ALSO BE SERIOUSLY AFFECTED AS DESCRIBED BELOW. ............... 3 TOURISM SECTOR .......................................................................................................... 3 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ............................................................................................... 3 RECOMMENDATION ........................................................................................................ 3 CHAPTER 1.................................................................................................................................. 5 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND.............................................................................. 5 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 5 BACKGROUND INFORMATION........................................................................................ 7 TANZANIA’S GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................. 7 TANZANIA’S ECONOMIC OVERVIEW .............................................................................. 7 GOVERNMENT PLANS AND PRIORITIES ........................................................................ 8 CHAPTER 2.................................................................................................................................. 9 USE OF AN ECOHYDROLOGY MODEL TO PREDICT THE IMPACT ON THE SERENGETI ECOSYSTEM OF DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MARA RIVER CATCHMENT IN KENYA, INCLUDING DEFORESTATION, IRRIGATION AND THE PROPOSED AMALA WEIR WATER DIVERSION PROJECT ........................................................................................ 9 ii Amala Project SITE DESCRIPTION ......................................................................................................... 9 HYDROLOGY OF THE SERENGETI ECOSYSTEM ............................................................ 9 IMPACT OF DEFORESTATION, IRRIGATION AND THE AMALA WEIR ON THE WATER BUDGET: HYDROLOGIC PREDICTIONS ........................................................................ 11 IMPACT OF THE AMALA WEIR ON THE SERENGETI ECOSYSTEM: ECOHYDROLOGY MODEL PREDICTIONS ................................................................................................... 12 DISCUSSION.................................................................................................................. 17 CHAPTER 3................................................................................................................................ 19 THE SERENGETI ECOSYSTEM AS IT EXISTS NOW ...................................................... 19 GRASSLAND STABLE STATE....................................................................................... 20 ELEPHANT NUMBERS AND DISTRIBUTION .................................................................. 20 THE IMPORTANCE OF WATER QUALITY IN DRIVING THE SERENGETI-MARA WILDEBEEST MIGRATION............................................................................................. 21 LESSER FLAMINGOS (PHOENICONAIAS MINOR)......................................................... 22 DISTRIBUTION OF FLAMINGOS .................................................................................... 22 FLAMINGOS FOOD AND FEEDING BEHAVIOUR........................................................... 23 THE IMPACT OF AMALA PROJECT TO FLAMINGOS..................................................... 24 CHAPTER 4................................................................................................................................ 27 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS TO TANZANIA OF IMPLEMENTING THE PROPOSED AMALA WEIR WATER PROJECT IN KENYA .................................................................. 27 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF THE AMALA PROJECT ON TOURISM.............. 27 TOURISM INDUSTRY: A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE.......................................................... 27 TOURIST ARRIVALS AND TOURISM RECEIPTS............................................................ 27 WORLD HOTEL CAPACITY............................................................................................ 27 THE TOURISM INDUSTRY IN TANZANIA....................................................................... 28 AN OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................... 28 iii Amala Project THE ROLE OF THE SERENGETI TO THE TOURISM SECTOR........................................ 31 OVERVIEW..................................................................................................................... 31 SOCIO-ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE OF THE SERENGETI .............................................. 31 TOURIST VISITORS ....................................................................................................... 31 REVENUE GENERATION ............................................................................................... 31 EMPLOYMENT ............................................................................................................... 32 ASSISTANCE TO COMMUNITIES ................................................................................... 33 ASSISTANCE TO TOURISM ........................................................................................... 34 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF AMALA PROJECT ON AGRICULTURE ............ 35 THE IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURE IN TANZANIA.................................................... 35 FEATURES OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR..................................................................... 36 LAND AREA................................................................................................................... 36 FARM SIZE..................................................................................................................... 36 ASSETS AND PRODUCTIVITY ....................................................................................... 37 LIVESTOCK (WATER AND PASTURE)........................................................................... 37 AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGIES (IRRIGATION)................................................................. 37 AGRICULTURAL LABOUR FORCE ................................................................................ 37 LITERACY RATES (EDUCATION)................................................................................... 37 PERFORMANCE OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR..................................................... 37 FOOD CROPS ................................................................................................................ 37 CASH CROPS ................................................................................................................ 38 NON-TRADITIONAL CROPS..........................................................................................