Somalia 2020 Post Deyr Food Security and Nutrition Outcomes and Projections A Virtual Briefing for All Stakeholders 4 February 2021 Funding for the 2020 Post FSNAU Donors Deyr Assessments and subsequent IPC analyses was provided by: 2020 Post-Deyr Assessment, Analysis and Vetting Process Planning, assessment, analysis and vetting of the results were conducted in collaboration with government, UN agencies, local and international NGOs and technical partners. • Briefing of partners on 2020 Post Deyr assessment plan • Participation in the 2020 Post Deyr IPC Analysis: and survey protocol – Oct/Nov 2020 • Total number of participants: 103 participants • Regional Planning Workshop/Training for rural food • Government institutions: 33 participants security assessment: Hargeisa, Garowe, Galkacyo, • Federal Government of Somalia Dhusamareb, Beletweyne, Mogadishu, Baidoa, Dollow and • Galmudug Kismayo: Dec 2020 • Hirshabelle • Southwest • Fieldwork (data collection): Nov-Dec 2020 • Jubaland • Puntland • Regional Analyses Workshops: 6-10 January 2021 • Somaliland • IPC Analyses Workshops and Technical Vetting: 11-19 Jan • NGOs/INGOs: 25 participants • Local Universities (Puntland State University): 2 • Technical Briefing for Government (virtual): 1 Feb participants • Technical partners (FEWS NET, IPC GSU and): 5 • Briefing for UN Heads of Humanitarian Agencies (virtual): 2 participants Feb • UN (FAO/FSNAU, WFP and UNICEF): 35 participants • Briefing for Senior Government Officials: (virtual): 3 Feb • Food Security and Nutrition Clusters - 3 • Final Dissemination to All Stakeholders (virtual): 4 Feb 2020 Deyr Season Rainfall and Temperature Forecast Oct-Dec 2020 Rainfall Outlook Oct-Dec 2020 Temperature Outlook • Forecast issued by the Greater (Probabilistic Forecast) (Probabilistic Forecast) Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF56) through IGAD/ICPAC in late August 2020 indicated a greater likelihood of below normal to normal Deyr season (Oct-Dec 2020) rainfall in most parts of Somalia and average to below average rainfall in northeast regions. • Below average Xays (Dec-Jan) rainfall were also considered likely in northwestern Somalia. • Warmer than usual temperatures were expected over most of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region, including Somalia. 2020 Deyr Season Rainfall Performance Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall Deviation from Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall in • Ineffective rainfall establishment in the North, MM (CHIRPS), Oct-Dec 2020 Average in MM (CHIRPS), Oct-Dec 2020 erratic distribution across many areas. • Cyclone Gati with torrential rains which hit coastal areas of Bari (late November) caused significant damages although it also brought favorable rainfall to coastal and adjacent pastoral areas of Sanaag, Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal. • Rainfall totals in most northern and southern areas below average. • Average to above average totals in many areas • The 2020 Deyr season rainfall was characterized by delays and erratic of central regions, parts of Bay, Bakool and distribution Overall, the 2020 Deyr season rainfall was below average in most Hiiraan and in Cyclone GATI affected areas in parts of the country with adverse impact on replenishment of pasture and the northeast and adjacent parts of northwest, water resources and on Deyr season crop production. • Floods continued in Hiiraan, Shabelle and Juba • Mixed 2020 Deyr onset; delays in most of North and large parts of the South regions from late October to early November (Gedo, Shabelle, and Juba regions); 2021 Gu Season Rainfall Forecast March-May 2021 Rainfall Outlook • In the Horn of Africa (GHA) region, La Niña is usually associated with drought conditions and El Niño with flooding. GHA climate is also influenced by the Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD). • Latest forecasts from CPC/NCEP/NWS/IRI indicates that La Niña is expected to continue during Jilaal (~95% chance between January and March 2021), with a potential transition to ENSO-neutral (i.e. neither La Niña, nor El Niño) during the forthcoming Gu (55% between April and June 2021). • Based on assumptions of waning La Niña conditions, warm western Pacific Ocean gradients, and a neutral IOD, there is greater likelihood of below-average to average April to June 2021 Gu season rainfall in central and southern Somalia and below average rainfall in the northern regions. Market Prices July-December 2020 January-June 2021 Outlook • Somali/Somaliland Shilling was stable over the past six months, except • The SOSH/SLSH exchange rate against USD is in Puntland where the local Somali Shilling continued to depreciate likely to be stable in most markets, partly against the US Dollar. boosted by expected increases in livestock • Prices of imported food commodities were generally stable, except in in export in the lead up to and during Ramadan northeast (Puntland) where prices increased sharply due to and Hajj (March-May). However, some exchange depreciation of the local currency. rate fluctuations is expected in northeast • Cereal food prices (maize and sorghum) were generally stable and close markets. to the five-year average apart from the northeast region that has been • A below average 2020 Deyr harvest and affected by inflationary pressures caused by depreciation of the local expected below average 2021 Gu season rainfall currency. will likely tighten domestic cereal supply and put • Significant increase in the cost of the Minimum Expenditure Basket upward pressure on prices starting in April. (MEB) was observed in the Puntland regions. • Sorghum and maize imports from Ethiopia will • Livestock exports declined sharply between August to December 2020 supplement supplies to adjacent markets in compared to average. northern, central and southern regions. Livestock Exports • Food import (rice, flour and sugar) prices are 800,000 2010-2019 2020 expected to be stable through mid-2021 from 700,000 promising global export availabilities, sluggish 600,000 500,000 demand and low oil price. 400,000 • Livestock prices will likely follow seasonally 300,000 trend through June from improved livestock 200,000 No of Heads No condition and productivity as well as increased 100,000 exports. Prices are expected to be close - or above the average in most markets with Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec regional differences. Impact on Agriculture (Maize and Sorghum Production) • In northwest regions, the 2020 Gu/Karan cereal production was previously estimated at 22 500 MT (September 2020), based on mid-season crop • In southern Somalia, the 2020 Deyr season cereal production is assessment. estimated at 78 600 tons, including 4 100 tons of off-season harvest expected in March 2021. The 2020 Deyr harvest is 20 • However, based on crop harvest assessments conducted percent lower than the long-term average for 1995-2019. in November, the revised production estimate is 17 100 MT. This is 58 percent lower than the average for 2010- • Main factors for the reported production decline include: erratic 2019, mainly due to erratic rainfall, Desert Locust and rainfall, successive and severe flooding, Desert Locust and stalk borer infestation on both sorghum and maize crops. insecurity/conflict. Impact on Pasture and Water Availability 2019 Gu 2019 Deyr 2020 Gu 2020 Deyr • Carryover water and pasture from the 2020 Gu season supported livestock through late October. Despite Desert Locust damage in northern and central and parts of south regions, average to near average 2020 Dey rainfall in November have moderated the impact and replenished pasture and browse in south/central and parts of north. • In late November, tropical cyclone GATI was experienced in northern regions mainly, Hafuun/Iskushuban, Alula, Bederbeyla, Bossasso, Qandala, Erigavo and Laasqoray districts. Although the cyclone caused significant damage, it also improved pasture and water in the affected areas. • Harsh Jiilaal (January-March 2021) is expected particularly in rain deficit areas of northern and central regions, leading to water scarcity, increased water trucking and early and atypical livestock migration and increased abortion among small ruminants in some regions. Impact on Livestock Production and Productivity • Conception during the 2020 Deyr was medium among small ruminants. Among large ruminants, conception was low to medium during the 2020 Deyr due to long gestation periods (most of them conceived 2020 Gu seasons or have given birth during the 2020 Deyr). Livestock births during the 2020 Deyr were also medium for small ruminants. • Milk availability is average to above average in southern Somalia, except in Gedo where milk availability is low due to less favorable pasture and browse conditions. • Although milk production has improved in northern and central regions, availability remains low due to (1) low ownership of milking/lactating animals as herd sizes have not yet fully recovered from the extended cumulative impact of previous droughts (2) most livestock have migrated to distant grazing areas in search of water and pasture. • Milk availability is expected to decline through mid-2021 due to harsh conditions during Jilaal and a likely below average 2021 Gu (April-June) season rainfall, particularly in northern and central regions. • Livestock holding among poor pastoral households continued to increase during the 2020 Deyr season. Further increases are expected towards mid-2021 year due to anticipated medium births between now and mid-2021 in southern regions. • However, livestock holding among poor pastoral households will still remain below baseline in