Durham E-Theses The Natural Gas Geopolitics of Turkey ARINC, IBRAHIM,SAID How to cite: ARINC, IBRAHIM,SAID (2014) The Natural Gas Geopolitics of Turkey, Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/10837/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk THE NATURAL GAS GEOPOLITICS OF TURKEY by İBRAHİM SAİD ARINÇ This Thesis is submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of the Doctor of Philosophy at Durham University School of Government and International Affairs Durham University 2014 THE NATURAL GAS GEOPOLITICS OF TURKEY ABSTRACT This thesis investigates the natural gas geopolitics of Turkey and explores its interaction with the Turkish foreign policy making of the Justice and Development Party (JDP). Whilst Turkey does not have enough indigenous natural gas reserves to meet the existing and growing demand, the country does have great advantages, as it is located between the major supplier countries in the Middle East and Eurasia and is placed at the crossroads of an energy hungry European natural gas market. Therefore, the major aim of this research is to explore capacity building in the creation of relationships of interdependence between Turkey and supplier and demanding countries. Rather than introducing a dependency energy mechanism, this thesis offers the interaction capacity of the country with natural gas suppliers and consuming countries. In order to explain the relationship between politics and energy variables, the thesis establishes the theoretical framework of the study through the use of a pluralistic and integrated model, by combining International Relations Theories, the foreign policy making process of Turkey and a conceptualisation of the relations of energy interdependence. The descriptive analysis of Eurasia and the energy profile of Turkey provide detailed information about the existing energy trade and dependency relations in the Eurasian space. Hence, it explains the importance of Turkey in Europe’s diversification of energy corridors and Turkey’s natural gas market, which is considered to be the second biggest market in Europe. The significance and role of Turkey in the construction of pipeline projects (ITGI, TANAP, Nabucco, Nabucco-West and TAP) that go through Turkey to Europe, a route which is called the Southern Corridor, are analysed in the thesis. On the other hand, this thesis offers certain perspectives for the Caspian-Turkey- Europe natural gas corridor, focusing on Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan’s role in the natural gas trade for the energy security of Europe. Moreover, the natural gas potential of Iran, Iraq (including KRG), Qatar, Egypt and Israel, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are viewed as major natural gas sources for Turkey and Europe in this thesis. Turkey has historical and economic ties with the Caspian Sea and Middle East regions, which hold immense natural gas reserves that can be marketed to Turkey and to the European Union (EU). Mapping Turkey’s energy relations with consuming and producing countries, and defining Turkey’s geopolitical space, will not only help to develop its energy policy to secure its own energy consumption but also to manage interdependence relations between Eurasia and Europe. This is a new conceptualisation of energy supply and transit management of Turkey in the context of a new model called the Anatolian Gas Centre (AGS). ii DECLARATION None of the material contained in this thesis has previously been submitted for a degree at the University of Durham or any other university. None of the material contained in this thesis is based on joint research. The content of this thesis consists of the author’s original individual contribution with appropriate recognition of any references being indicated throughout. iii COPYRIGHT The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. No quotation from it should be published without prior written consent, and information derived from it should be acknowledged. iv DEDICATION TO MY FAMILY v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deep gratitude to my supervisor Prof. Anoush EHTESHAMI. Without his guidance and encouragement, this thesis could never have been realized. I am grateful to H.E. Abdullah GÜL, who has encouraged me to attend the PhD program and supported me throughout my education at Durham University. I would like to thank H.E. Ahmet DAVUTOĞLU, who accepted me as his apprentice-çırak for two years, which deeply affected my intellectual and professional career. I am very thankful to H.E. Taner YILDIZ, who gave me a great opportunity to expand my expertise on the natural gas business. I would also like to express my special thanks to my ex-director Mr. Mehmet BİLGİÇ, Mr. O. Saim DİNÇ and Dr. Cenk PALA for guiding my learning in the natural gas business and international natural gas politics. This dissertation would not be possible without the encouragement and support of my father Prof. Ümit Doğay ARINÇ Furthermore, I would like to thank Prof. Bill PARK, Mr. John NORTON, Dr. Colin TURNER, Dr. Mehmet ASUTAY, Prof. Bülent ARAS, Dr. Şaban KARDAŞ and Dr. Süleyman ELİK, as their academic insights and visions helped me construct my thesis. I am also grateful to my friend Levent ÖZGÜL from BOTAŞ for sharing his expertise and intelligence with me regarding the technical dynamics of global and local natural gas markets. Finally, I will never forget the enormous support and patience of my wife, Leyla. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................. ii DECLARATION ..................................................................................................................................... iii COPYRIGHT .......................................................................................................................................... iv DEDICATION ......................................................................................................................................... v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS..................................................................................................................... vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................... vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................. xi LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................ xvi LIST OF MAPS .................................................................................................................................... xvii INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 1 1. THE AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ........................................................................ 2 2. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY ................................................................................................. 2 3. LITERATURE REVIEW OF TURKEY’S ENERGY GEOPOLITICS .......................................... 3 4. CONTRIBUTION OF THE STUDY ............................................................................................ 12 5. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY................................................................................................... 13 5.1. Data Collection Method .......................................................................................................... 13 5.2. Methodology for Data Analysis .............................................................................................. 14 5.3. The Level of Analysis ............................................................................................................. 17 6. THE HYPOTHESIS OF THE THESIS ......................................................................................... 18 7. THE OUTLINE OF THE THESIS ................................................................................................ 19 Chapter 1 ................................................................................................................................................ 22 A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR TURKEY’S ENERGY POLITICS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS .......................................................................................................................................... 22 1.1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 22 1.2. OVERVIEW OF GEOPOLITICAL THEORIES ....................................................................... 23 1.2.1. Traditional Geopolitical Approaches ..................................................................................