NL A T I N A MERICAN o PROGRAM t N EWS iL ETTER c i aFA sll 2 0 0 6 Mexico’s 2006 Elections On July 2, 2006, Mexicans went to the polls to elect a new president and con- gress for the first time since President Vicente Fox became the first opposition can- didate to end 71 years of uninterrupted rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). This highly anticipated election received media cover- age worldwide. To analyze the important changes taking place in Mexico’s democratic process and the role of Mexico in world affairs, the Mexico Institute initiated an ongoing series on the elec- tions that has included conferences and semi- nars in Washington, DC, New York, Tijuana, and Mexico City, as well as a website updated daily with summaries and links to the most important daily news, polls, and analysis of the elections by Clockwise from top left: Alejandro Moreno, María Amparo Casar, James Jones, Andrew Selee, Andrés leading scholars and commentators. Rozental and Javier Treviño On March 1, 2006, the Mexico Institute hosted Andrés Rozental, president of the Mexican after the July presidential election because no Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss the matter who won, the new chief executive would issues on the bilateral agenda, and what chal- be far less willing than Fox to nurture Mexico’s lenges the two governments would face over the relationship with the United States. next few months as both countries went through On March 31, 2006, the conference an election year. Rozental predicted that rela- “Institutions and Political Actors in Mexico’s tions between the two nations would deteriorate 2006 Elections” brought together fourteen Mexico’s 2006 Elections 1-5 Junior Scholars in the Study of Democracy in Latin America 18 Latin America and the United States: Public Security in Latin America 20-22 The Future of the Relationship 5-7 Enforcing the Rule of Law: Social Accountability in the Comparative Peace Processes in Latin America 7-11 New Latin American Democracies 22-23 International Trade and Biotechnology in Brazil 11-13 Poverty and Social Inclusion in Argentina 23-24 The International Relations of Latin America 13 Elections in Peru 24-25 The Future of the Andean Region 13-15 Cultural Dynamics and Future Innovative Prospects NSIDE for the U.S.-Mexican Border NAFTA and the Future of Trade Governance 15-16 25-26 Vanguardia Latina: Visions for the Hemisphere 26 I Brazil Institute Awards Dinner and Scholars 16-17 Unsilencing the Victims Colombia’s Peace Processes: Multiple Negotiations, 26-27 Multiple Actors 17-19 Staff Notes 28 Recent Publications 29-30 N o t i c i a s speakers from both sides of the border to discuss allowing Congress to exercise representation and changes in the political party system, govern- oversight of the executive power for the first time. ing institutions, and the role of citizens and social Since then no party has been able to win a majo- actors in Mexican society. On the first panel, rity in the Chamber of Deputies, and, as a result, “Political Party System in Transition,” Alejandro the lawmaking process has become not only more Moreno of the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo cumbersome, but prone to open conflict. Tonatiuh de México (ITAM) and the Mexican newspaper Guillén of El Colegio de la Frontera Norte stated Reforma pointed out that the election had been that democratization has opened up new paths for characterized by a competition between the indi- institutional actors, especially governors and mayors. vidual candidates rather than the parties they rep- However, he pointed out that while democratiza- resented. Voters supporting Andrés Manuel López tion makes room for more participation, it also cre- Obrador of the Democratic Revolutionary Party ates a fragmented federal agenda with weak policial (PRD) were generally liberal in social values and actors who cannot implement policy effectively. left-of-center on economic issues. Voters inclined He argued that Mexico needed a major reform of toward Felipe Calderón of the National Action its federal system to empower subnational govern- Party (PAN) were more likely to be conservative ments, especially municipalities, to be effective. in social values and right-of- On the same panel, Jacqueline Peschard of the center on economic issues. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Jean François Prud’homme of El (UNAM) noted that electoral institutions have Colegio de México described played a key role in the Mexican democratization Mexico’s party system as “fro- process, by pushing forward mechanisms to ensure zen.” He pointed out that in accountability for political parties. She mentioned 2006 the system’s configura- that since the electoral reforms of 1996 there has tion still is similar to what it been a growing citizen confidence in the electo- was in 2000, with small par- ral system. Although the Federal Electoral Institute ties searching for protection (IFE) has carried out its tasks effectively, its general from the three large parties by council has become overly sensitive to public opi- forming alliances. Pamela Starr nion. Jonathan Fox of the University of California, of the Eurasia Group noted Santa Cruz, addressed the issue of transparency. He that the problem President noted that the access to information law was an Fox’s administration faced important advance, but noted that there were still was that people’s perception major threats to its survival and there are no natio- of presidential power did not nal standards for access to information laws at the Jesús Silva-Herzog Márquez decline while his actual power state and local level. Francisco González of the School had, leading to high expecta- of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins tions of his administration that went unmet. Starr University observed that there is still a clear divide pointed out that unlike presidents who ruled between judicial reforms and the trustworthiness during the years of PRI dominance, who main- of the justice system. While the supreme court has tained majorities in Congress, President Fox did become increasingly independent, other courts have not have the power to pass his reforms and deliver improved much less. As a result, the Mexican public on his promises for fiscal and energy reform. She still does not trust its judges. estimated that Mexico’s structural problems for In the third panel, “Citzens and Social Actors,” achieving more fluid governance were not likely Mariclaire Acosta, director of the Department to go away after these elections. for the Promotion of Good Governance in the In the second panel, “Change & Continuity Secretariat for Political Affairs at the Organization in Institutions of Governance,” María Amparo of American States (OAS), questioned the pre- Casar of the Centro de Investigación y Docencia paredness of Mexico’s social actors to face their role Económicas (CIDE) argued that electoral reforms in a fully democratized society. Jesús Silva-Herzog had put an end to the hegemonic party system, Márquez of ITAM argued that civil society actors Fa l l 0 0 6 now play a different role from what they have tra- Mexico’s relationship with the United States would ditionally in that their focus is primarily on the likely become more strained, and predicted that the campaigns and party platforms. He also noted that cooperative disposition that characterized Fox’s pres- the parties have each developed a different strategy idency will come to an end once he leaves office. for relating to civil society. Chappell Lawson of the James Jones of Manatt Jones Global Strategies sug- Massachusetts Institute of Technology explained gested that Mexico’s relationship with the United the changes that took place in the mass media States, which is firmly rooted in economic interests, during Mexico’s transition to democracy; there has would not be significantly affected by the outcome been a new inclination towards equity in the cov- of the election. He predicted that migration would erage of political campaigns. continue to be a major issue in the relationship On May 26, 2006, the Mexico Institute hosted because the U.S. Congress is unlikely to be able to a conference on “The 2006 Mexican Presidential pass an immigration reform bill this year. Javier Treviño Elections and the Future of U.S.-Mexico Relations.” of CEMEX argued that PRI candidate Roberto Cynthia Arnson, director of the Latin American Madrazo would be more prudent and cautious than Program at the Wilson Center, and Mexico Institute the current Fox administration, and López Obrador Advisory Board co-chairs Roger W. Wallace and José would present the biggest change; Calderón would Antonio Fernández gave welcoming remarks. On likely present the greatest con- the first panel, Enrique Krauze, editor-in-chief of tinuity. However, he added the Mexican magazine Letras Libres, argued that that the degree of attention to Andrés Manuel López Obrador represents a form Mexico from the United States of “political messianism,” reflected in his belief that would vary depending on the he embodies the will of the people and in his disre- outcome of the midterm elec- gard for institutions. If López Obrador were to win, tions for the U.S. Congress. Krauze anticipated that a messianic leader would Susan Kaufman Purcell of the present a “historic challenge” to Mexican democ- University of Miami specu- racy, even though he was confident that Mexican lated that the direction of U.S. institutions were strong enough to contend with public opinion, midterm elec- this. Lorenzo Meyer of El Colegio de México took tions, and the focus of U.S. exception to the statements made by Krauze about foreign policy could affect the López Obrador. In response to concern that López U.S.-Mexico relationship. She Obrador might not respect Mexican institutions, asserted that while a coopera- Meyer cited a need for a more complete demo- tive, business-friendly energy cratic transition in Mexico because the institutional policy would only emerge framework in place has not changed sufficiently.