C OUNTRY INDICATORS FOR FOREIGN POLICY D EMOCRACY & G OVERNANCE No. 1/ Spring 2007 This document expresses the views and opinions of the authors, and not necessarily those of CIDA, of Pakistan other departments of the Government of Canada or of other Pakistan faces seven fundamental challenges on the path toward organizations or individuals democracy and good governance. Insecurity continues to be a major consulted during its preparation. issue, with regular clashes between the Pakistani military and tribesmen. The government has become increasingly autocratic, using the global war Protected by on terror (GWOT) as a pretext for arbitrarily arresting and detaining copyright CIFP @ 2007. opponents and dissidents. The increasing number of bomb blasts also This report is produced as part of indicates that frustration is on the rise, and that the government needs to the CIFP governance and engage disgruntled factions if any meaningful reduction in violent incidents democratic processes project. It is is to be accomplished. Poverty and unemployment continue to be massive a baseline analysis, a preliminary problems for the country, with a significant portion of the population living attempt to identify and assess below the poverty line, in spite of record growth rates. Corruption and emerging trends in democratic disregard for the rule of law impede development progress and also pose governance in the country using an obstacle for foreign investors. Democratic participation is severely both structural and dynamic event- limited, and the actions of dissidents are closely monitored. Criticizing the based data. The overall project aims regime has almost become unacceptable. The rise in Islamic radicalism to support informed, evidence- based decision making for Canadian can be attributed to the government’s de facto support for religious parties foreign policy and development as a means to alienate mainstream secular parties. assistance related to democratization and good MAIN CHALLENGES TABLE 1: KEY FINDINGS governance. This report is one in a One of Pakistan’s main series on governance and challenges is the unrest and • Insurgencies in Baluchistan and democracy in developing states. insurgency in the restive North West Frontier Province (NWFP) continue to threaten stability provinces of Baluchistan and NWFP, and the Islamist and • The government is becoming increasingly autocratic, as TABLE OF CONTENTS secessionist threat that demonstrated by the controversy resonates from these regions. Executive Summary 2 over the issue of “enforced The use of excessive force by disappearances” Country Profile 5 the government has also • Frustration and discontentment with Stakeholders 6 resulted in a backlash against the government is on the rise Summary: Structure & Trends 9 the government, and generated • Poverty, unemployment, crime and Primary Drivers 11 even greater instability in inflation continue unabated volatile regions. The • Corruption and disregard for the rule Secondary Drivers 23 government’s heavy-handed Appendix: Democratic Backgrounder 26 of law continue to be significant tactics and human rights problems Appendix: Acronym List 28 abuses have further galvanized • Democratic participation and anti-government rhetoric and freedoms are severely limited activity. Entrenched corruption and lack of transparency also • Religious radicalism is gaining momentum, mainly due to the hinder the country’s government’s marginalization of development progress. mainstream parties © CIFP With the generous support of the Canadian International Development Agency PAKISTAN 1. Executive Summary n assessment of Pakistan’s structural baseline performance using the CIFP governance and democracy indexing methodology reveals that Pakistan is still a high-risk nation A that faces a number of key governance and democratization challenges. Poor performance in Political Stability and Violence, Human Rights, and Accountability and Transparency clusters remain the greatest concern. DYNAMIC EVENTS ANALYSIS TABLE 2: SUMMARY UNDERLYING CONDITIONS CIFP monitoring of key events covers the period Political Government & Rule of Law 1 August 2006 to 10 February 2007. During that Stability & Market Efficiency period 740 events covering the range of Violence political, economic and social interactions have been collected, weighted and assessed. The 6.32 5.04 7.25 average event score is slightly negative at -0.48, indicating that the situation in Pakistan is Human Rights Government Democratic deteriorating. A large number of stabilizing Transparency & Participation events in the Government and Market Efficiency Accountability cluster, counterbalanced by an even larger number of destabilizing events in the Human 7.48 7.05 6.87 and Political Stability and Violence clusters account for the overall extremely negative trend. CENTRAL EVENTS TABLE 3: AVERAGE EVENTS SCORE AND TENDENCY Women’s Protection Bill: The Women’ Protection Bill was passed by the +3 National Assembly of Pakistan on 15 November 2006. It replaced the controversial Hudood Ordinance, which had been enacted during Zia- ul-Haq’s reign as part of the Islamization agenda. The Hudood Ordinance basically 0 criminalized adultery and non-marital consensual sex as per Sharia law. In a bold and unprecedented move, the Musharraf government pushed through the Women’s Protection Bill, which is grounded in civil law under the Pakistan -3 Penal Code. Even though the government was harshly criticized by Islamists and lost the support of certain elements due the Women’s Protection Bill, the government remained firm to Average Score: -0.48 its commitment to advance women’s rights. Under the new law, adultery and non-marital Trend Score: -1.49 consensual sex is still a crime, but the onerous witness requirements and severe punishments have changed. As well, rape cases are not restricted to Islamic courts and can be tried in criminal courts. Human rights groups have hailed the Women’s Protection Bill the biggest victory of Musharraf’s regime. 2 GOVERNANCE & DEMOCRATIC PROCESSES Bugti’s killing is important claiming that the dead were because it has aggravated the mostly children and innocent feeling of marginalization students. The opposition reacted amongst Baluchis and caused in an angry manner as well, with the security situation in two provincial ministers resigning Baluchistan to deteriorate from their posts. significantly. By making Bugti a martyr for Baluch nationalism, Exactly who was killed remains the military government has unclear, as the military has denied reinforced nationalist struggles the media and human rights in other parts of the country and groups any access to the site. The earned the permanent enmity of controversy has been fuelled many. Bugti’s death is certainly further by suggestions that the air the lowest point of Musharraf’s strike was conducted at the government. behest of the US. The affair increased the feeling of Bajaur Agency Air Strike: victimisation amongst Pashtuns, Killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti: The Bajaur Agency air strike, and has proved to be damming Nawab Akbar Bugti, the veteran which took place on 30 October for the credibility of the Baluch leader, was killed on 27 2006, left 80 dead and government. There is speculation August 2006 in a military operation thousands up in arms against that several violent incidents that that left 30 soldiers and over 20 the government in the followed the air strike were in rebels dead. Pundits have hailed aftermath. retaliation to the Bajaur attacks. Bugti’s killing the biggest blunder made by a military government The operation was conducted since Bhutto’s execution. The using US drones to take out killing led to unprecedented Taliban and Al-Qaeda elements violence and unrest in Baluchistan, that were believed to be hiding and generated harsh criticism from in a madrassa in the Bajaur the opposition. The Pakistani agency. Local tribesmen population and Diaspora expressed seethed with anger and outrage against the government’s resentment against the action. government after the attack, COUNTRY INDICATORS FOR FOREIGN POLICY 3 PAKISTAN SCENARIO FORECASTING Scenario analysis is one of the primary analytical tools used by CIFP to set the stage for policy evaluation. Scenarios evaluate interactions between stakeholder agendas and grievances, baseline structural features, and dynamic events. Each scenario is an assessment based on hypothetical projections (positive or negative) of stakeholder behaviour and events. The best-case assumes that the and human rights violations will security establishment’s resources strongest positive trends will continue to be areas of concern. to address the deteriorating law dominate over any negative trends The threat from Islamist factions and order situation in urban in the near future. Conversely, the and separatist groups will centres. Following the election, worst-case scenario assumes the increase in the face of the the new government will able to opposite. Finally, the most likely government’s refusal to address push through legislation aimed at case scenario extrapolates future their grievances. The people will improving the rights of women tendencies based on the overall become increasingly dissatisfied and minorities, building on the trend within the state. with the corrupt government, success of the Women’s and protests will become Protection Bill. Most Likely Scenario commonplace. To suppress Our assessment of these three government opposition, human Worst-Case Scenario information sources suggests that rights