U. S. Department of Justice Federal Bureau of Investigation Making Prevention a Reality: Identifying, Assessing, and Managing the Threat of Targeted Attacks Behavioral Analysis Unit—National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime Behavioral Threat Assessment Center National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime Critical Incident Response Group Federal Bureau of Investigation ii AUTHORS This publication was authored by members of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Behavioral Analysis Unit: Molly Amman Karie A. Gibson Supervisory Special Agent Supervisory Special Agent Federal Bureau of Investigation Federal Bureau of Investigation Matthew Bowlin Sarah H. Griffin Special Agent Special Agent U.S. Capitol Police Naval Criminal Investigative Service Lesley Buckles Kirk Kennedy Crime Analyst Operational Psychologist Federal Bureau of Investigation Federal Bureau of Investigation Kevin C. Burton Cari J. Robins Unit Chief Supervisory Special Agent Federal Bureau of Investigation Federal Bureau of Investigation Kimberly F. Brunell Supervisory Special Agent Federal Bureau of Investigation iii Table of Contents Message from the FBI Director.................................................................................................................... vii Foreword ...................................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................................... x Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 1 Awareness: Initial Step Toward Change .................................................................................... 3 Violence is gender neutral ......................................................................................................................... 3 Diminishing the violent offender ............................................................................................................... 3 These offenders don’t “snap”—they decide ............................................................................................. 4 Threat assessment ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Research .................................................................................................................................................... 5 Barriers to successful engagement............................................................................................................ 6 Early recognition of barriers .................................................................................................................. 8 Self awareness ....................................................................................................................................... 8 Information sharing ............................................................................................................................... 9 Violence and mental illness ....................................................................................................................... 9 Behavior, not diagnosis ............................................................................................................................. 9 Chapter 2 Identification: An Essential Step for Threat Management ...................................................... 11 Low probability/high impact events ........................................................................................................ 11 Bystanders become upstanders .............................................................................................................. 11 Opportunities for identification .......................................................................................................... 13 Reporting and reporting mechanisms ................................................................................................. 14 Creating a culture of shared responsibility .......................................................................................... 14 Making a threat versus posing a threat ................................................................................................... 15 Intimacy effect ........................................................................................................................................ 16 Anonymous communicated threats ........................................................................................................ 18 Analysis of threatening communications ................................................................................................ 18 First Amendment protected speech .................................................................................................... 19 iv Chapter 3 Assessment: Analysis for Guiding Management...................................................................... 21 There are no “usual suspects” ................................................................................................................. 21 Data interpretation and weighting .......................................................................................................... 21 Bias .......................................................................................................................................................... 21 Triage versus 360° assessment ................................................................................................................ 23 Pathway to violence ................................................................................................................................ 24 The role played by mental illness ............................................................................................................ 25 The “person of concern” ......................................................................................................................... 28 Brittle people ....................................................................................................................................... 28 Conducting the assessment ..................................................................................................................... 29 Threat enhancers .................................................................................................................................... 29 Risk factors .......................................................................................................................................... 29 Warning behaviors .............................................................................................................................. 32 Indicators of potential imminence ...................................................................................................... 36 Triggers and stressors .......................................................................................................................... 37 Mitigators ................................................................................................................................................ 37 Level of concern ...................................................................................................................................... 39 Awareness of scrutiny ............................................................................................................................. 40 Targeting ................................................................................................................................................. 41 Relationship to grievance .................................................................................................................... 41 Relationship to psychosis .................................................................................................................... 42 Family, loved ones, caregivers ............................................................................................................. 42 Information gathering ............................................................................................................................. 43 Data sources ........................................................................................................................................ 45 Relevance of data ................................................................................................................................ 46 Interviews ................................................................................................................................................... 48 Records ................................................................................................................................................ 49 Open source ........................................................................................................................................ 49 Social media and the internet ............................................................................................................. 49 Chapter 4 Management: The Prevention Plan ......................................................................................... 51 Safety and caretaking .............................................................................................................................