Quantitative Assessment of Future Net Oil Exports by the Top Five Net Oil Exporters ASPO-USA 2007 Houston World Oil Conference October 17-20, 2007 Jeffrey J. Brown & Samuel Foucher, Ph.D. UK Production and Net Exports Predicted Production 95% Confidence Interval Exports 1 Export Land Model ELM, UK and Indonesia, Year over Year Changes in Net Exports 2 Conventional Wisdom - the Economist Quote About Saudi Arabia « Saudi Aramco's proved reserves alone could keep the world supplied for several decades. But it is only exploiting ten of its 80 or so fields, so will be able to pump at the present rate for about 70 years even if it never discovers another drop of oil ». Economist Magazine, August 10, 2006 Saudi Arabia: Constant Production at 11 mbpd, Versus Consumption Increasing at +5.7%/year 3 Saudi Arabia, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast URR=224 ± 24 Gb -2.7 ± 2%/year 4.4% ± 2%/year Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption Confidence Interval 2015 Saudi Arabia, Net Exports Actual Forecast Exports Forecast Confidence Interval -4.73 ±4%/year 2015 4 Russia, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast URR=204 ± 7 Gb Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption Confidence Interval -5.1 ± 2%/year 0.3% ± 0.8%/year 2015 Russia, Exports Actual Forecast Exports Forecast Confidence Interval -8.2 ± 4%/year 2015 5 Norway, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast URR=29 ± 1 Gb Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption Confidence Interval -11.0 ±2%/year 0.7% ± 2.7%/year 2015 Norway, Exports Actual Forecast Exports Forecast Confidence Interval -12.1 ± 2.5%/year 2015 6 Iran, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast URR=124 ± 12 Gb -1.5 ± 2%/year Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption 2.9% ± 1.8%/year Confidence Interval 2015 Iran, Exports Actual Forecast Exports Forecast Confidence Interval -4.9 ± 7%/year 2015 7 UAE, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast URR=49 ± 9 Gb Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption Confidence Interval -2.9 ± 4%/year 5.0% ± 5.0%/year 2015 UAE, Exports Actual Forecast Exports Forecast Confidence Interval -4.0 ± 7%/year 2015 8 Top Five, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast URR=680 ± 55 Gb Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption Confidence Interval -3.8 ± 2%/year 1.8% ± 0.9%/year 2015 Top Five, Exports Actual Forecast -6.2 ± 4%/year 2015 9 Top Five Net Exports, With US Total Imports Electrified Transportation in San Angelo, Texas, Circa 1908 10 2007 Houston World Oil Conference Proceedings • Conference Program • Conference DVD • Video Highlights • Peak Oil Review • ASPO-USA.