CIFOR Transforming REDD+ Lessons and new directions Edited by Arild Angelsen, Christopher Martius, Veronique De Sy, Amy E Duchelle, Anne M Larson and Pham Thu Thuy Transforming REDD+ Lessons and new directions Editor Arild Angelsen Co-editors Christopher Martius Veronique De Sy Amy E Duchelle Anne M Larson Pham Thu Thuy Editorial assistant Sarah Carter Lead language editor Erin O’Connell Foreword by Fabiola Muñoz Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) © 2018 by the Center for International Forestry Research. All rights reserved. Printed in Bonn ISBN: 978-602-387-079-0 Second impression. Errata can be found at: www.cifor.org/library/7045/ Content in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0), http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Angelsen A, Martius C, De Sy V, Duchelle AE, Larson AM and Pham TT (eds). 2018. Transforming REDD+: Lessons and new directions. Bogor, Indonesia: CIFOR. Photo credits: Cover: Neil Palmer/CIAT Chapters: 1 and 9: Patrick Shepherd/CIFOR; 2,6 and 8: Ulet Ifansasti/CIFOR; 3: Terry Sunderland/CIFOR; 4 and 15: Yoly Gutierrez/CIFOR; 5: Deanna Ramsay/CIFOR; 7: Mokhamad Edliadi/CIFOR; 10 and 14: Aulia Erlangga/CIFOR; 11: Icaro Cooke Vieira/CIFOR; 12: Aris Sanjaya/CIFOR; 13: Juan Carlos Huayllapuma/CIFOR; 16: Nanang Sujana/CIFOR Designed by Publication Team, Digital and Editorial Services, COE, CIFOR Infographics by Dharmi Bradley CIFOR Jl. CIFOR, Situ Gede Bogor Barat 16115 Indonesia T +62 (251) 8622-622 F +62 (251) 8622-100 E [email protected] cifor.org/gcs Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) CIFOR advances human well-being, equity and environmental integrity by conducting innovative research, developing partners’ capacity, and actively engaging in dialogue with all stakeholders to inform policies and practices that affect forests and people. CIFOR is a CGIAR Research Center, and leads the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA). Our headquarters are in Bogor, Indonesia, with offices in Nairobi, Kenya; Yaounde, Cameroon; Lima, Peru and Bonn, Germany. Contents List of authors vii Foreword xiii Acknowledgements xvi Summary xviii 1 Introduction 1 REDD+ enters its second decade Arild Angelsen, Christopher Martius, Veronique De Sy, Amy E Duchelle, Anne M Larson and Pham Thu Thuy Part 1 REDD+ finance and building blocks 2 Pathway to impact 17 Is REDD+ a viable theory of change? Christopher Martius, Arild Angelsen, Anne M Larson, Pham Thu Thuy, Denis J Sonwa and Brian Belcher 3 Financing REDD+ 29 A transaction among equals, or an uneven playing field? Stibniati S Atmadja, Shintia Arwida, Christopher Martius and Pham Thu Thuy 4 Results-based payment 41 Who should be paid, and for what? Arild Angelsen, Erlend AT Hermansen, Raoni Rajão and Richard van der Hoff 5 Information and policy change 55 Data on drivers can drive change – if used wisely Veronique De Sy, Martin Herold, Maria Brockhaus, Monica Di Gregorio and Robert M Ochieng Part 2 National politics 6 Strategic alignment 69 Integrating REDD+ in NDCs and national climate policies Pham Thu Thuy, Moira Moeliono, Arild Angelsen, Maria Brockhaus, Patricia Gallo, Hoang Tuan Long, Dao Thi Linh Chi, Claudia Ochoa and Katherine Bocanegra 7 Multi-level governance 81 Some coordination problems cannot be solved through coordination Anne M Larson, Juan Pablo Sarmiento Barletti, Ashwin Ravikumar and Kaisa Korhonen-Kurki 8 Land and carbon tenure 93 Some – but insufficient – progress William D Sunderlin, Anne M Larson and Juan Pablo Sarmiento Barletti iv | Contents Part 3 Assessing impacts 9 National and subnational forest conservation policies 105 What works, what doesn’t Jan Börner and Thales AP West, with Allen Blackman, Daniela A Miteva, Katharine RE Sims and Sven Wunder 10 Forests and carbon 117 The impacts of local REDD+ initiatives Gabriela Simonet, Astrid B Bos, Amy E Duchelle, Ida Aju Pradnja Resosudarmo, Julie Subervie and Sven Wunder 11 People and communities 131 Well-being impacts of REDD+ on the ground Amy E Duchelle, Claudio de Sassi, Erin O Sills and Sven Wunder Part 4 Evolving initiatives 12 Subnational jurisdictional approaches 145 Policy innovation and partnerships for change Claudia Stickler, Amy E Duchelle, Daniel Nepstad and Juan Pablo Ardila 13 The private sector 161 Can zero deforestation commitments save tropical forests? Pablo Pacheco, Haseebullah Bakhtary, Marisa Camargo, Stephen Donofrio, Isabel Drigo and Dagmar Mithöfer 14 Climate-smart agriculture 175 Will higher yields lead to lower deforestation? Hambulo Ngoma, Arild Angelsen, Sarah Carter and Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta 15 Forest restoration 189 Getting serious about the ‘plus’ in REDD+ Louis Verchot, Veronique De Sy, Erika Romijn, Martin Herold and Ruben Coppus 16 Conclusions 203 Lessons for the path to a transformational REDD+ Arild Angelsen, Christopher Martius, Amy E Duchelle, Anne M Larson, Pham Thu Thuy and Sven Wunder Terms and abbreviations 215 Glossary 219 References 229 List of figures, tables and boxes Figures 1.1 Annual tropical forest cover loss 2001–2017 4 1.2 CIFOR’s Global Comparative Study on REDD+ research countries 8 2.1 A theory of change for the original concept of REDD+ 21 2.2 The UNFCCC REDD+ decisions in a theory of change (Warsaw Framework) 24 3.1 ODA cumulative commitments and disbursements for activities labelled as REDD+, 2008–2015 32 3.2 Year of REDD+ Readiness Preparation Grant Agreement from FCPF by country, countries mentioning REDD+ in their INDCs or participating in UN-REDD+ 36 3.3 Assessment of REDD+ effectiveness and capacity to access international REDD+ funds across 41 countries 37 4.1 Relation between payment years (horizontal) and reference years (vertical) 45 4.2 Deforestation and different reference levels (baselines) for the Brazilian Amazon 47 5.1 Direct drivers of deforestation in the tropics (1990–2005): Forest area (in ha) lost to different subsequent land uses 59 6.1 Share of (I)NDCs that mention REDD+ as a percentage of the total submitted (I)NDCs per region (N= 197) 72 6.2 REDD+ strategies mentioned in countries’ NDCs or INDCs 73 7.1 Complexity of government responsibilities across levels and sectors 84 9.1 Effect sizes of national policies 115 10.1 Density of REDD+ projects, defined as the area covered by REDD+ projects divided by country’s (2015) forest area. 120 10.2 Illustration of the difference-in-difference (DID) approach 122 10.3 Methods and data used in the REDD+ and forest carbon impact literature 126 10.4 Impact of REDD+ on deforestation in Transamazon project 129 11.1 Studies (ex post) of REDD+ impacts on participation and non-carbon (mostly well-being) outcomes 133 11.2 Theory of change for positive outputs and outcomes in local REDD+ initiatives 134 11.3 Change in household income after REDD+ initiatives were introduced (intervention) and in non-REDD+ (control) areas 136 12.1 Key indicators related to forests and drivers of deforestation in the 39 studied jurisdictions 151 12.2 Number of jurisdictions with defined commitments and performance targets that correspond to their international-level commitments 153 12.3 Progress on elements of jurisdictional sustainability (E = early; I = intermediate; A = advanced) indicated by percentage of 33 sample jurisdictions achieving each of the three rating levels 154 14.1 Area and yield changes to cereal production in sub-Saharan Africa (upper) and Asia (lower), starting from a baseline of 1961 = 100% 178 15.1 Estimates of the relative proportions of degradation resulting from four proximate drivers, by continent (A) and by phase of forest transition (B), for the period 2000–2010 195 vi | List of figures, tables and boxes 15.2 Map of 154 restoration projects in Latin America and the Caribbean 197 15.3 Overview of project goals of the 154 restoration projects, displayed for the initiatives 198 Tables 1.1 Research and dissemination components of the Global Comparative Study on REDD+ (GCS REDD+) 10 2.1 Main rationales underlying REDD+ theories of change 26 5.1 The role of information on drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in REDD+ policy processes and main obstacles to effective information use 62 6.1 Inclusion of forests in current (I)NDCs 74 6.2 Examples on how to enhance the role of forests in climate change policies 78 9.1 Impact of national policies on deforestation (selected studies) 113 10.1 Impact of REDD+ projects and programmes on forests 124 12.1 Comparison of approaches to reduce tropical deforestation 148 13.1 Dominant approaches to zero deforestation in forest-risk commodities 165 13.2 Scope and type of key commodity commitments to zero deforestation 167 15.1 Obstacles encountered during monitoring of project progress 200 Boxes 1.1 Tropical deforestation trends 4 1.2 The Global Comparative Study on REDD+ 8 2.1 What is a theory of change? 19 3.1 Accounting of REDD+ finance in Vietnam 33 3.2 Case study: Indonesia’s Environmental Fund Management Agency 38 4.1 The Green Climate Fund: USD 500 million for REDD+ 43 4.2 The Emission Reduction Program Buffer: Supporting both mitigation and non-carbon benefits 44 4.3 The Amazon Fund: To reward past or future results? 45 4.4 A calculated approach to calculating reference levels 46 5.1 Tracing soy supply chains in Brazil with Trase 61 5.2 Shifting cultivation: The importance of information and perception 65 6.1 Global and national green development strategies 72 7.1 Bargaining vs. cooperation vs. coordination problems 85 7.2 Multilevel coordination challenges in Mexico 86 7.3 Multisectoral coordination challenges in Indonesia: