FOLLOW THE PARTY: SUPER PACS AND THE POLITICAL PARTY NETWORK A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy In Government By Justin Alan Koch, M.A. Washington DC January 2, 2019 Copyright 2019 by Justin Alan Koch All Rights Reserved ii FOLLOW THE PARTY: SUPER PACS AND THE POLITICAL PARTY NETWORK Justin Alan Koch, M.A. Thesis Advisor: Hans Noel, Ph.D. ABSTRACT In 2010, two U.S. court decisions enabled political groups to raise and spend money in unlimited amounts. These groups, called Super PACs, are known for the vast sums of money they spend in elections. However, less attention has been paid to the effects that these groups have had on the political party network. This dissertation addresses this disparity by searching for party behavior among Super PACs. It draws on an original qualitative dataset, a social network dataset pairing Super PACs with the candidates they support, and finally a dataset of Super PAC spending in federal elections from 2010 through 2016. I find that “single race” groups, which spend money supporting one candidate for a single election, have steadily increased in frequency over time, and are now the most common type. Such groups exist only as an arm of the candidate they support. However, network analysis determined that party groups tend to be the most central. Finally, I found that party group aid was not sufficient to improve election outcomes, while overall group aid was an excellent predictor of a candidate’s electoral success. This dissertation offers support for recent political party theory, particularly the extended party network, while exploring a heretofore understudied element of U.S. campaign finance. iii Acknowledgments I am thankful for the guidance and support of my dissertation committee: Dan Hopkins, Michael Malbin, Hans Noel, and Clyde Wilcox. Their methodological and theoretical insights were instrumental in refining my ideas and sharpening the finer points of the dissertation. I am particularly thankful to Hans for spurring me to take what was originally an idea for a single article and expanding it into this work. I owe tremendous thanks to Michael Malbin for offering feedback on the more technical aspects of campaign finance. I thank Clyde for pushing me in the direction of focusing on campaign finance in general, particularly during 2 seminars: one in which I was one of 2 students in the class, and the other where I was the only student. Finally, I owe Dan immense gratitude for his methodological tutorials in graduate school, especially for pushing me to learn R and showing me what could be achieved with it. I also want to thank other folks at Georgetown who gave me feedback on the project at various points, especially Diane Zovighian, Mike Bailey, Jon Ladd, Andy Bennett, Chris Schorr, and Alex Podkul. Special thanks go to Paula Evans, Ph.D. Programs Officer, who helped me navigate so much of this process. My wife, Wenting Tong, has my eternal gratitude for believing in me and persuading me to believe in myself as I completed this work. Finally, I want to thank my family. My brother Bryan has been my role model from a young age. My mother, Gloria Moore-Koch, taught me the meaning of hard work. The passion of my late father, Alan Koch, inspires me every day to do what I love. iv Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 0.1 A new approach in the study of political networks ............................................................. 1 0.2 Concepts and theory ............................................................................................................ 7 0.3 Argument and structure of the dissertation ....................................................................... 13 Chapter 1 A Typology of Super PACs: 2010-2016 .................................................................... 15 1.1 Introduction: Campaign finance and Super PACs ............................................................ 15 1.2 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 19 1.3 Results ............................................................................................................................... 25 1.4 Implications for party theory............................................................................................. 38 1.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 40 Chapter 2 Super PAC Network Analysis .................................................................................... 43 2.1 Introduction: Party networks ............................................................................................. 43 2.2 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 51 2.3 Network results ................................................................................................................. 65 2.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 79 Chapter 3 Super PAC Regression Analysis ............................................................................... 81 3.1 Introduction: Campaign finance and electoral success in U.S. elections .......................... 81 3.2 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 89 3.3 Regression results ............................................................................................................. 99 3.4 Implications for party networks ...................................................................................... 109 3.5 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 110 Chapter 4 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 113 4.1 Theoretical implications .................................................................................................. 113 4.2 Electoral implications ..................................................................................................... 115 4.3 Policy implications .......................................................................................................... 117 v 4.4 Future research ................................................................................................................ 119 Appendix: Supplemental materials for Chapters 1-3 ................................................................ 121 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 141 vi List of Figures Figure 1.1: Super PAC Typology, Sample ................................................................................ 25 Figure 1.2: Bi-Partite Sample Network, 2010-2016 .................................................................. 27 Figure 1.3: Unipartite Sample Candidate Network, 2010-2016 ................................................ 29 Figure 1.4: Super PAC Typology, Full ...................................................................................... 31 Figure 1.5: Party vs. Ideological Group Distribution ................................................................. 34 Figure 1.6: Candidate Distribution by Number of Groups Supporting (Single race only) ........ 35 Figure 1.7: Candidate Distribution (3+ groups per candidate only) .......................................... 36 Figure 1.8: Issue Group Distribution ......................................................................................... 37 Figure 1.9: Total Independent Expenditures over time, by Group Type ................................... 38 Figure 2.1: Bipartite Networks, Midterm Elections ................................................................... 66 Figure 2.2: Bipartite Networks, Presidential Elections .............................................................. 66 Figure 2.3: Unipartite Networks (Candidates, by cycle) ............................................................ 68 Figure 2.4: Bipartite Network (Party Groups only, all years) .................................................... 71 Figure 2.5: Bipartite Network (Ideological Groups only, all years) .......................................... 71 Figure 2.6: Community Detection (Unipartite Candidate Network, Infomap) .......................... 72 Figure 2.7: Community Detection (Bipartite Network, Clustered Edge Betweenness) ............. 73 Figure 2.8: Community Detection (Bipartite Network, CEB, 2010 with labels) ....................... 73 Figure 2.9: Community Detection (Unipartite Network, Infomap, 2016 with labels) ................ 74 Figure A.1: Sample FEC Form 1, Statement of Organization .................................................. 122 Figure A.2: Super PAC Typology, Opp. Groups Only ............................................................. 123 Figure A.3: Community Detection (Bipartite, Infomap) .......................................................... 125 Figure A.4: Community Detection (Unipartite Candidate Network, LPA) .............................