ALLIED SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATIONS PROGRAM Chicago, IL January 6–8, 2012 Contract negotiations, management and meeting arrangements for ASSA meetings are conducted by the American Economic Association. Participants should be aware that the media has open access to all sessions and events at the meetings. i ASSA2012.indb 1 11/16/11 3:52 PM Thanks to the 2012 American Economic Association Program Committee Members Kyle Bagwell Timothy Bresnahan Dora Costa Barry Eichengreen Charles Engel Lars Peter Hansen Erik Hurst Laurence Kotlikoff David Lee Eric Leeper Adriana Lleras-Muney Stephen Morris Monika Piazzezi Robert Townsend Kenneth Wolpin Michael Woodford Cover Art—“Chicago—Skyline in Snow” painted by Kevin E. Cahill (Oil on Canvas, 12 x 16 ) based on a photograph by Jerry Driendl (copyright ′′ ′′ 2008). Kevin is a fellow economist and Investigator for the Sloan Center on Aging and Work at Boston College. Kevin invites you to visit his website at www.kcahillstudios.com. Jerry Driendl is a professional photographer who specializes in skylines. Jerry’s pictures are represented for licensing by Panoramic Images at www.panoramicimages.com, his posters are available at http://www.worldskylines.com, and his photographic prints are at www. fillprints.com. ii ASSA2012.indb 2 11/16/11 3:52 PM Contents General Information................................iv Hotels and Meeting Rooms ......................... ix Listing of Advertisers and Exhibitors ...............xxvii Allied Social Science Associations ..................xxx Summary of Sessions by Organization ............. xxxiii Daily Program of Events ............................1 Program of Sessions Thursday, January 5 .........................27 Friday, January 6 ...........................28 Saturday, January 7 ........................140 Sunday, January 8 .........................249 Subject Area Index...............................324 Index of Participants . 327 iii ASSA2012.indb 3 11/16/11 3:52 PM General Information PROGRAM SCHEDULES A listing of sessions where papers will be presented and another covering activities such as business meetings and receptions are provided in this program. Admittance is limited to those wearing badges. Each listing is arranged chronologically by date and time of the activity; the hotel and room location for each session and function are indicated. CONVENTION FACILITIES Ten hotels are being used for all housing. Sessions and other convention functions are in the Hyatt Regency Chicago, Swissotel, and Palmer House Hilton. A map of Chicago indicating the locations of the hotels, an alphabetical listing of function rooms within the hotels, and hotel floor plans are in the next section of this book. Headquarters hotel is the Hyatt Regency Chicago. Central convention facilities such as registration, exhibits and message and information are all located in the Hyatt Regency. Details follow. The $25 per night premium for the headquarters hotel is rebated to ASSA to help cover the cost of the meetings. REGISTRATION Everyone must register including speakers and discussions. Identification badges are required for admission to all sessions and activities. On-site and Pre-registrants may pick up their registration packets at the Hyatt Regency Chicago, Gold Level/ East Tower, Grand Ballroom Foyer. On-site registration fee is $125. Full time stu- dent registration fee is $55. Pre-registration and On-site registration booths are open as follows: Thursday, January 5 2:00 pm to 9:00 pm* Friday, January 6 7:45 am to 5:00 pm* Saturday, January 7 8:00 am to 5:00 pm* Sunday, January 8 8:00 am to 1:00 pm Group Office ( ) *On-site registration line closes fifteen minutes prior to closing each day. See labor dispute for other options. SPOUSES There is no spouse program. Spouses wishing to attend any of the meetings may register for $55. If your spouse needs an affiliation on his her badge, he she must register separately and pay the full fee. / / PROFESSIONAL PLACEMENT SERVICE Interview tables are located in the Palmer House Hilton, State/Grand Ballrooms and Red Lacquer Room, Fourth Floor. Hours are four full days, from 8:00 am to 5:00 pm. Everyone admitted to the interviewing tables (including interviewers) must register. There is no on-site placement registration nor will there be an on- site message exchange center. All correspondence should take place using email, including interview scheduling, prior to your arrival in Chicago. However, on-site iv ASSA2012.indb 4 11/16/11 3:52 PM contact can be conducted by using the ASSA Printed Hotel Directory available at the registration counter. For those registering after the December 1st deadline, check the on-line hotel directory at www.vanderbilt.edu/AEA and click on Annual Meeting. You may also check with the Disclosure Code Booth at the Hyatt Regency and Palmer House Hilton or on the AEA website at www.vanderbilt.edu/AEA and click on Annual Meeting. ASSA does not provide computers on-site. The Profes- sional Placement Service is conducted and sponsored free of charge through the efforts of the Illinois Department of Employment Security and AEA. EXHIBITS Exhibits are located in Hyatt Regency Chicago, East Tower/Riverside Center West. The Exhibit area may be visited during the following hours: Friday, January 6 9:00 am to 6:00 pm Saturday, January 7 9:00 am to 5:00 pm Sunday, January 8 9:00 am to 1:00 pm MESSAGE AND INFORMATION CENTER The Message and Information Center is located in the Hyatt Regency, Gold Level/ East Tower, Grand Ballroom Foyer and is open during the following hours: Thursday, January 5 2:00 pm to 9:00 pm Friday, January 6 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Saturday, January 7 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Sunday, January 8 8:00 am to 2:00 pm Messages may be transmitted in person or by telephone during these hours. The number to call is 312-239-4846. A list of all persons who pre-registered, and are staying in one of the convention hotels, is listed in the hotel directory available at the registration counters. For hotel of participants registering after the deadline go to www.vanderbilt.edu/AEA and click on Annual Meeting/on-line hotel directory. FEE AND INVITATION EVENTS The “Daily Program of Events” section of this program lists fee and invitation events, membership meetings, and other social functions in chronological order. Events for which a fee is charged or which may be attended by invitation only are noted in. Tickets were sold to the following open events: AEA AFA Joint Luncheon Friday, January 6, 12:30 pm / Hyatt Regency Chicago, Grand Ballroom F ASE Presidential Breakfast Saturday, January 7, 7:45 am Swissotel, Grand Ballroom Salon I AEA Luncheon Honoring Saturday, January 7, 12:30 pm the 2010 Nobel Laureates Hyatt Regency Chicago, Grand Ballroom F AREUEA Presidential Saturday, January 7, 12:30 pm Luncheon Swissotel, Grand Ballroom Salons II & III LERA Presidential Luncheon Saturday, January 7, 12:30 pm Palmer House Hilton, Empire Room Tickets to each of these events were ordered on the pre-registration form. Tickets may be available at the door if an event is not sold out. v ASSA2012.indb 5 11/16/11 3:52 PM CONVENTION STAFF HEADQUARTERS Headquarters for the ASSA Convention is located in the Hyatt Regency Chicago, Gold Level/East Tower, near Grand Ballroom F. The hours of operation are: Thursday, January 5 2:00 pm to 5:00 pm Friday, January 6 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Saturday, January 7 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Sunday, January 8 8:00 am to 1:00 pm Headquarters staff should be alerted to any problems associated with the operation of the convention. Special notices concerning the program and room changes will be posted there. To reach Convention Headquarters by phone call 312-239-4845. An Information Desk is located in the Swissotel, Concourse Level, outside Gene va Restaurant and the Palmer House Hilton, Salons 4-5, Third Floor. Information tables are open Friday and Saturday from 8:00 am until 3:00 pm and on Sunday from 8:00 am until 1:00 pm. PRESS Press Registration is located in the Group Office, Gold Level, East Tower, near Grand Ballroom F. Grand Suite 1 is available for lounging and Grand Suite 2 is available to use for interviewing. Press must schedule an appointment to use Grand Suite 2 at the Group Office. Press Registration is open during the following hours: Thursday, January 5 2:00 pm to 5:00 pm Friday, January 6 7:30 am to 5:00 pm Saturday, January 7 7:30 am to 5:00 pm Sunday, January 8 7:30 am to 12:00 noon BUSINESS CENTERS Amalfi Hotel Chicago Fourth Floor 24 hours with key Embassy Suites ML Level 24 hours with key Chicago Lakefront Fairmont Chicago B1 Level M–F 7 am–7 pm, S&S 8 am– 4 pm Hard Rock Hotel Chicago Third Floor 24 hours with key Hilton Chicago Lobby Level/ M–F 7 am–7 pm, FedEx Kinkos S&S 8 am–5 pm Hyatt Regency Chicago Purple Level- M–F 6 am–7 pm, East Tower S&S 7 am–6 pm InterContinental Chicago Lobby-Historic M–F 8 am–5:30 pm, Tower S&S 9 am–3 pm Palmer House Hilton Street Level- M–F 6 am–9 pm, Wabash Side S&S 8 am– 4 pm Renaissance Chicago Lobby/ M–F 7 am–10 pm, FedEx Kinkos S&S Closed Swissotel Chicago Business Centre M–F 7 am–7 pm, Level S&S 8 am–3 pm Above hours are subject to change. vi ASSA2012.indb 6 11/16/11 3:52 PM DISCLOSURE CODES The Disclosure Code Information Booths are located in the Hyatt Regency Chi- cago, Gold Level/East Tower, Grand Ballroom Foyer and the Palmer House Hilton, State Ballroom Foyer, Fourth Floor.