Focal Resource: ALPINE/SUBALPINE CWHR Types: SCN SENSITIVITY RESULTS…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….6 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY RESULTS…………………………………………………………………………………………………………9 EXPOSURE RESULTS………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………11 LITERATURE CITED………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……14 SENSITIVITY QUESTION RANK CONFIDENCE 1. Direct sensitivities to changes in temperature and precipitation. a. How sensitive is the system to temperature (means and High High extremes)? b. How sensitive is the system to precipitation (means and High Mod extremes)? 2. Sensitivity of component species. a. How sensitive are the component species of the system to High Mod climate change? 3. Sensitivity to changes in disturbance regimes. a. How sensitive is the system to one or more disturbance High Mod regimes? (Includes: wildfire, drought, wind, disease, insects, other – ecosystem species shifted) 4. Sensitivity to other types of climate and climate-driven changes. a. How sensitive is the system to one or more climate and High Mod climate-driven changes? (Includes: altered hydrology regimes, evapotranspiration and soil moisture, extreme temperature) 5. Sensitivity to impacts of other non-climate stressors. a. To what degree do other stressors currently affect the Low Mod system? (Includes: commercial development, human intrusions and disturbance, other – outdoor recreation) b. To what degree do these non-climate stressors make the system more sensitive to climate change? Mod No answer 6. Other sensitivities. a. Are there other critical factors that have not been addressed Soils Mod that will likely make the system more sensitive to climate change? b. Collectively, to what degree to these factors make the system High sensitive to climate change? 7. Overall user ranking. a. In your opinion, how would you rank the overall sensitivity of High Mod this system to climate change? Climate Adaptation Project for the Sierra Nevada. EcoAdapt (2013). ALPINE/SUBALPINE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY QUESTION RANK CONFIDENCE 1. Extent and integrity. a. How widespread is the system across the Sierra Nevada? Mod High b. How fragmented is the system across the Sierra Nevada? Mod and High (alpine more fragmented than subalpine) High 2. Resistance, recovery, and refugia. a. To what degree has the system been able to resist or recover Low High from the impacts of stressors? b. Are there microclimates within the ecosystem range that See N/A could support refugial communities? section below 3. Landscape permeability. a. To what degree is the landscape permeable? Low-Mod Low b. What general types of barriers to dispersal apply? (Includes: geologic features) 4. System diversity. a. How diverse are the physical and topographical Low-Mod Mod-High characteristics of the system? b. What is the level of diversity of component species and No answer No answer functional groups in the system? c. Describe the level of diversity. See N/A section below 5. Management potential. a. How much do people value this system (e.g., because of High Mod-High services it provides such as water, recreation opportunities, aesthetic value, etc.) b. How rigid or specific are the rules governing management of High High the system? c. Are there any use conflicts for this ecosystem in specific regions? See section N/A d. What is the potential for managing or alleviating climate below impacts? 6. Other adaptive capacity factors. a. Are there other critical factors that have not been addressed, Artificial No answer which may affect the system’s adaptive capacity? snowpack b. Collectively, to what degree do these factors affect the No answer adaptive capacity of the system? 7. Overall user ranking. a. In your opinion, how would you rank the overall adaptive Low Mod capacity of the system to climate change? 2 Climate Adaptation Project for the Sierra Nevada. EcoAdapt (2013). ALPINE/SUBALPINE EXPOSURE QUESTION RANK CONFIDENCE 1. Elements of exposure. a. What elements of climate exposure are likely to be most N/A relevant to the ecosystem and in which regions? i. Temperature – Sierra Nevada wide Mod ii. Precipitation – Sierra Nevada wide Mod iii. Dominant vegetation type – Sierra Nevada wide Low-Mod iv. Climatic water deficit – Sierra Nevada wide; less Low important in North Low v. Wildfire – Subalpine; West vi. Snowpack – Sierra Nevada wide; especially North Mod vii. Runoff – Sierra Nevada wide; possibly more West Low-Mod viii. Timing of flows – Sierra Nevada wide; possibly more West Low-Mod ix. Low flows – Alpine (flow or not); Subalpine Low-N/A (somewhat important) x. High flows – Alpine (flow or not); Subalpine Low-N/A (somewhat important) Low xi. Other: Type of precip (rain on snow events) – Sierra Nevada wide 3 Climate Adaptation Project for the Sierra Nevada. EcoAdapt (2013). ALPINE/SUBALPINE b. For selected elements of exposure, at what time frames and spatial resolution are most relevant? N/A N/A xii. Temperature – Yearly, Seasonal (Summer/Winter) xiii. Precipitation – Yearly, Seasonal (Spring/Fall) xiv. Dominant vegetation type – Yearly, Decadal xv. Climatic water deficit – Seasonal (Late Summer) xvi. Wildfire – Wildfire Season xvii. Snowpack – Seasonal xviii. Runoff – Seasonal xix. Timing of flows – Seasonal xx. Low flows – N/A xxi. High flows – N/A xxii. Other: Type of precip (rain on snow events) – Seasonal ‘Climatic water deficit’ is less important in the northern Sierra due to higher potential for groundwater storage, but very little alpine/subalpine areas exist is the north. ‘Snowpack’ is especially important to consider in the north, because snow is projected to diminish more and headwaters if state water project. Same with Eastern Sierra (DWP water). 2. Expressing exposure. a. How should exposure for the ecosystem be expressed? N/A N/A i. Only the most important variables (those selected above) ii. Maps comparing existing ecosystem locations with specific climate variables iii. Other – map showing dominant vegetation shift; map showing current and projected snowpack to runoff; map showing cool air pools; refugia maps showing exposure (northern and southern) b. Variables to be combined? See above. 4 Climate Adaptation Project for the Sierra Nevada. EcoAdapt (2013). ALPINE/SUBALPINE 3. Exposure assessment for different regions. a. Please indicate the overall exposure the system is likely to experience in each of the different regions over the three time periods. i. North 1. 2010-2029 Mod 2. 2030-2049 Mod-High High 3. 2060-2079 High ii. Central 1. 2010-2029 Low-Mod High 2. 2030-2049 Mod 3. 2060-2079 High iii. South 1. 2010-2029 Low High 2. 2030-2049 Low-Mod 3. 2060-2079 High Low, moderate, and high rankings were given in relation to expected exposure to fire. 4. Overall user ranking. a. In your opinion, how would you rank the overall exposure of High High this system to climate change? 5 Climate Adaptation Project for the Sierra Nevada. EcoAdapt (2013). ALPINE/SUBALPINE SENSITIVITY 1. Direct sensitivities to changes in temperature and precipitation. a. Sensitivity to temperature (means & extremes): High i. Participant confidence: High b. Sensitivity to precipitation (means & extremes): High i. Participant confidence: Mod Participant comments to support conclusions: Sensitivity to precipitation related to type and timing of precipitation, more than amount. Subalpine zone is considered doing well / very protective, as per Hugh Stafford and Sarah Sawyer with USFS. The confidence ratings of high and moderate are a result of participant discussion, based on existing science and literature. Peer-review references: Temperature: High elevation temperatures tend to be cool year round with an average ranging from -11.5 – 1.5oC (11-35oF) in January and 5.5 – 19.5oC (42-67oF) in July. Over the past century, high elevation forests have seen pronounced increases in temperature. In the Central Sierra Nevada, daily minimum temperature has increased by 1.2oC since 1929-34 (Dolanc et al. 2012). From 1910-20, average minimum temperature was 3.8oC; in 1990-2000, average minimum temperature increased to 7.5oC in upper elevation forests of the central Sierra Nevada (Millar et al. 2004). Precipitation: Averages 750-1250 mm (30-50 in) per year, most of which falls as snow (Fites-Kaufman et al. 2007). In the Central Sierra Nevada, precipitation has increased by 15-48% since 1929-34 (Dolanc et al. 2012). From 1910-20, precipitation averaged 41.7 cm; in 1990-2000, average precipitation increased to 63.2 cm in upper elevation forests of the central Sierra Nevada (Millar et al. 2004). Water supply may be an important factor dictating the response of high elevation forests (Fites-Kaufman et al. 2007). The establishment of Jeffrey pine, sugar pine, and red fir are significantly associated with El Nino events, which cause wetter and warmer average conditions and a deep snowpack in the winter (North et al. 2005). 2. Sensitivity of component species. a. Sensitivity of component species to climate change: High i. Participant confidence: Mod Participant comments to support conclusions: Overall, subalpine and alpine species are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation, although many species have been tolerant of climate fluctuations during the late Holocene. Limber pine is more tolerant of drier and steeper landscapes. Whitebark pine and limber pine are likely less sensitive to drought stress in less dense and short-statured (e.g., krumholtz) stands. A critical research question is that the higher elevation topography in the southern Sierra Nevada may have the potential to accommodate an elevation