11/28/78 Folder Citation: Collection: Office of Staff Secretary; Series: Presidential Files; Folder: 11/28/78; Container 98 To See Complete Finding Aid: http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/library/findingaids/Staff_Secretary.pdf ,, WITHDRAWAl SHEET (PR.ESII!>ENTIAL LIBRARIES) ·FORM OF CORRE;SPONDENTS OR TITLE DATE RESTRICTION DOCUf:viE.NT Memo Bourne to Pres. Carter, 1 pg.,( f( re::personal mat,.ter (9 \~4 (;;, /r <f'l- Memo . Bergland to Pres. Carter, 1 s'i! ·'~~r: 1MC.'f!~11 IU~ . w/attachments 8 pp0 ~in/( ftt~~ ~ 1J Telex Andrew Young to Pres. Carter, w/attachments 4 pp., re;UN activities Memo Brzezinski to Pres. Carter, w/attachments 4 pp., re:recommendat.ions ,. -:,.;:- .t •' ,'" +',,•, •D ' ' .··· ··' ··~- _..,. ·" ... ·-,, ,, ,·'' ~)-!, . ' ·, ' !·~ ~-~/ ~ '·' "o' , '· ·' 't/ . 'e "·~"<:.. :) ~·- .. ie .; . .v ' 't· ·" ... " 1i' '· ' ' ,, ..-i -=:-:-~==~....;,_~-----------~-------~-~:;;..,.._ FILE LOCATION _ __;.. __ ....__;,...---:----:- ., ' ? . Carter Presidential Papers-Staff Offices, Office of Staff ,Sec. -Presidential Handwriting File, 11/28/78 Box 110"... .. RESTRICTION CPDES (A) Closed by Executive Order 1236e'governlng access to national security Information. (B) Closed by statute or· by the agency which originated t!le documenJ. (C) Closed: in accordance with .reStrictions contained in the donor's ~eed of gift~ NATIONAL ARCHIVES AND RECORDS ADMIN IS T RAT I 0 N. N,A FORM. 1429 (8-86) -·· .... c..-.;..~'-.0..:..- ..-:• • ...:·~.;··- •• •• --~.;-t ---· • .t.. • '; i THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON 28 Nov 78 I To Secretary Bergland The attached was returned in the President's outbox today. It is forwarded to you for appropriate handling~ Rick Hutcheson -€0NFIDEN'i'IAL 1·-. .· ....;,.. ~-~-~-~--··- ··------- ---~-.--·---'--·-- .. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON 28 Nov 78 Stu Eiz·enstat Zbig Brzezinski T.he attached was returned in the President's outbox today. It is forwarded to you for your information. Rick Hutcheson ~GWFI:CENTIAL f;,•. ~-. .. ' . FOR STAFFING FOR INFORMATION ~ FROM PRESIDENT'S OUTBOX LOG IN/TO PRESIDENT TODAY IMMEDIATE TURNAROUND NO DEADLINE LAST DAY FOR ACTION ADMIN CONFIDENTIAL z 0 CONFIDENTIAL H SECRET 8 H " C) ·:>-! EYES ONLY ~ 11.!· V.LCt: .PRES.IDENT ARAGON JORDAN BUTLER / EIZENSTAT H. CARTER KRAFT CLOUGH LIPSHUTZ CRUIKSHANK .MOORE FALLOWS POWELL FIRST LADY RAFSHOON GAMMILL WATSON HARD,EN WEXLER HUTCHESON / BRZEZINSKI. LINDER MCINTYRE MARTIN SCHULTZE MOE PETERSON PETTIGREW ADAMS PRESS ANDRUS SANDERS BELL VOORDE / BERGLAND WARREN BLUMENTHAL WISE BROWN CALIFANO HAI:{R..:S KREPS MARSHALL SCHLESINGER STRAUSS VANCE . ' ···- ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY WASHINGTON, D. C. 20250 NOV 2 2 1978 ...CQ~IFIBEfffiAL The President The White House Washington, rr.c. 20500 Dear Mr. President: ·.·· ..... __ -. I have just completed what I regard as a highly successful visit to the P.eople•s Republic of China. During the ten days we spent there, from November 4 to 14, I met with Vice Premier Li Hsien-nien; my host, Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, Yang Li-kung; and Minister of Foreign Trade, Li Chiang. In addition to Peki'ng', we visited the cities of Shanghai, Ch•eng~tu and Canton. Th.e Ch.inese a:re committed to a major effort to .modernize their coumtry 'by the end of the century. With 80 percent of the populati.on primarily engaged f;n production of food: and fiber, the i'mprovement of their agricultural economy is necessarHy the foundation of what they refer to as the long march to modernization. It is due to their realization that the United States has much to offer in the way of technology in agriculture that we were able to score some important breakthroughs in ottr rapidly developing relationship with China. Forewarned of lhe unwtll i ngness of the PRC 1eade,rs'hi p to enter i:nto formal government-to-government ,agreement pdor to the normalization, we sought no signed agreements. We S'ucceeded, however, i'n obtaining, an exchange of l,etters between' Minister YaRg and mysel;f confirming what they described as an 11 oral understanding .. with respect to scientific and educational exchange visits~ facfl.ftation of trade contacts in a number of agribusiness and food processing industries of interest to the Chinese, a:nd exchange visits concerned with agricultural statistics and forecasting methodology. In response to ou:r emphasis on the need for the Chinese to be regular ·. :-.::._.:·; and predictable custome.rs of U.S. agricultural products (if they q-tJDt:/ expected us to be a reliable supplier), Vke Premier Li confided that /' they expected to b~:~y annually from us some 5-6 m.illion tons of grain and .significant q~:.~antities of cotton (we agreed not to divulge publicly this figure). .. --~~ .. •.. • ' .. ,, . :. The President Page 2 The Chinese gave us previously unpublished data on planted area, crop production, and livestock inventory for the year 1977. Stressing that they had not given such data to any other cotmtry, the Chinese did r:tot object to our publish·ing the data as our own esti.mates (i.e., without attribution to them). What is most significant in all of this is an apparent decision by the leadership of the PRC not to permit the absence of normalization to stand_ in the way of expanded trade and cooperaUon in the agricultt:Jral area·.· Beca,use of the 1 en.gth of the visit and the broad area we were able to cover, my delegation (listing attached) was able to form a number .of conclusions about the status and prospects for Chinese agdcultt:Jre: 1. The Chinese appear t6 have reached a high level of yields per acre per year by intensive use ef land, krigaUor:r, a:nd massive labor inputs. They recognize,- and we agree, that further .growth from these sources is 1 imi ted. 2. Despite the huge and intensively used labor force, the low level of mechani-zation Hmi:ts increase ir:t agricultural output. 3. The application o.f modern plant and ani:mal breed'ing can be a si:gnificant factor in furtherfncrea·ses in agriculture output. Substantial gains also could be achieved by the use of modern dhemical ferti'lizer, :pesticides, and herMctdes. 4. The sci:entifi'c base i:n Chinese agriculture has been severe.ly eroded by i'nattention and isolatien from outside contacts. It will require a large effort in retraining and new training to build an adequate scientific and technic·al base in agriculture to undergird their development efforts. 5. If the Chinese are to feed their city population increased quantities of meat and' poultry products they must turn to U.S. type industrial' production of broilers, pigs, and layi;ng. hens. This ·will requi:re mixed feeds and quality control, a·nd will like l:y have to depend in pa•rt on i:mported feeds. 6. To reach their goa 1 of 400 mi 11 ion metri·c tons of g.ra ill by 1985 will require a .sustained growth rate of 4.5 percent compounded .. No country has done this for a significant period. · .. ..... The President Page 3 7. The Chinese appear to be awed by the IJ'.S. agricultural productivity and thus may have unr.eal i s,ti c expectations about ihe value of our technology to their conditions. · Finally, I would ·note that we were treated with extraordinary friend­ liness and hospitality. The Chinese Ministers were exceptionally candid about both their aspiraUons and their many weaknesses. While repeatedly emphasizing tt:leir determination to remain self-sufficient and i:ndependent, they look to the U.S., almost naively, as holding the key to their objectives for modernizing their agriculture. This faces us wHh opportunities as w.ell as serious challenges. The Chinese are unleashing for.ces which involve new freedoms for thei'r people as well as rising expectations of material well-being. Where all of this will take them is difficult to predict. But I believe that it i's very important that we establish i'n our relations with them a record of dependability and reliability·; that we not over-promise, but that we delive.r on whatever we undertake to do. Sincerely, Eoo Berglanci Secretary cc: Honorable Cyrus .R. Vance Secreta:ry of State (Attachment) Secretar~ Be,rTHind: Vi si't iPeopl e 's r epub fc of Chiina October 31 - NoMember 16, 1978 Bob Bergland', Secretary of Agriculture Dale E. Hathaway, Assistant Secreta.ry for Internattonal Affairs and Commod'ity Progr~ms, USDA Julius L. Katz, Assistant Sec,retarifor Economk and Business Affairs, Department of State · M;. Ruper.t Cutler, .Assistant Secretary for Conservatiion, ·Research and Education, 'tJSDA Thoma·s R. Hughes, Administrator Foreign Agri cul tura·l Servi c.e, .USDA L~nn M. Daft, Associate Director for AgricuHmral and Rural Development Domestic Policy Staff, The White House Anson R. Bertrand, Director Science and Education Adm:ini'stration,, USDA Tom Sand, Asststant to the Secreta,ry Quentin M. West, Director, Office of International Coope,ration and Development, USDA Jimmy D. Minyard·, Deputy Assi:stant Administ,rator for Market Hevelopment, Foreign Agricultural Service, 1t:JSDA David Schoonover, Director, Centrally 'Planned Economies Di vision, Foreign Ag.ricultural Service, USDA · Scott Hallford, Country Officer for Peop~·e's R~public of Chi·na and Mongolia Affairs, IDepartment of State Roger J. Gerrits, Staff Scientist,, Livestock and Vete:rinary Sciences Science and Education Administrati.on, :USDA Quenti:n Jones, Staff Sci;entist, Pliant and Entomological Sciences Science a·nd Education Admini:stration, USDA Charles Y. tiu:, Project teader, Economics, Statistics, a,nd Cooperatives Servke,. Centra Uy Plan ned Countri:es Program Area, USDA '· Louis H. McElroy, ·Chief, Administrati've. Services Branch Foreign Agricultural Service (Admiinistrati:ve Control Offker for Visit) PRESS Miss Coleen Geraghty, Commodity News Service Jim Risser,, Des Moines. Register Axel Krause, B.us.i ness Week GONFifJEN'fiAL MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT c / FROM: Peter Bourne ?.B. November 27th 1978 Following our discussion last week I have been able to narrow my optlons and think out a little more specifically what I want to do.