The Association of Chief Police Officers Project and Design Group EVALUATION OF THE "SECURED BY DESIGN" INITIATIVE: PILOT STUDY, Criminil Jiisticc/NCGD Q-;; • -Til S.I. Nevitoi'cs Ccn-^r !:; '• ^r!^ NJ 0/102 Bv ROGER BONE & ASSOCIATES JUNE 1994 Roger Bone & Associates Osborne House 111 Bartholomew Road London NWS 2BJ Tel: 071-267-2555 Fax: 071:482-2394 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author would like to thank officers of Herts Constabulary for their assistance with information for the study, especially the Architectural Liaison Officer, Crime Analyst, and Statistician. The help is also acknowledged of St Albans District Planning Department who provided maps and census data. The location figure in the report is taken from the District Local Plan Review Draft Written Statement. TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 2 1.1 Research background 2 1.2 Scope and objectives 3 2 SCHEME SELECTION 4 3 EVALUATION METHOD 7 3.1 Analysis steps 7 3.2 Specification of geographic areas, crime types and crime period . 7 3.3 Selection of test procedure 8 4 DATA COLLECTION 10 4.1 Crime statistics 10 4.2 Street and population data 10 4.3 Contextual indicators 11 4.4 SBD scheme costs and benefits 11 5 CALCULATIONS AND FINDINGS 12 5.1 Crime rates in SBD and non-SBD estates 12 5.2 Susceptibility to crime: other factors 13 5.3 Conclusions lb ANNEX A SECURED BY DESIGN AND THE DEVELOPER 18 ANNEX B ILLUSTRATIVE COSTS AND BENEFITS 19 ANNEX C DATA COLLECTION AND RESOURCE ISSUES 21 ANNEX D MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF CRIME TRENDS 23 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 1 Selected crime incidence in SBD and non-SBD areas and Herts County, March 1991-April 1994 10 Figure 1 London Colney Location 5 Figure 2 SBD Estate (part) - Architect's Drawings 6 Figure 3 Domestic Burglary in Herts Police District and St Albans Division 23 Figure 4 Herts Police District Burglary (Dwelling): Seasonally Adjusted and Trend 24 SUMMARY There is a widespread support for the view that much crime is opportunistic and more specifically that certain common cnmes like domestic burglary can be reduced by careful housing design. This prompted the "Secured by Design" (SBD) police initiative to encourage the housebuilding industry to adopt good practice crime prevention measures in home and estate design. A system has been devised and implemented which involves submission of designs and their assessment according to British Standards and other cntena for approval for SBD status, but the initiative has yet to receive a proper evaluation. The Association of Chief Police Officers Project and Design Group accordingly commissioned a pilot study to examine Secured By Design on the ground and develop an appropriate methodology for wider application. Differences in reported crime, expressed as a ratio per dwelling, between a Secured By Design estate and a comparator area were examined after devising a two stage procedure combining statistical and contextual analysis. In the sample areas examined the statistical tests undertaken for burglary incidence alone did not show a statistically significant difference, but those for all crimes considered, i.e. domestic burglary, theft of cars and theft from cars. did. However in a larger exercise crime incidence can be expected to be greater and facilitate statistical testing. The comparison gives encouragement to the Secured By Design concept, especially as the population composition of the SBD development indicated that it would be more rather than less at risk to the specified crimes than the comparator area. The next step should be to apply the methodology to a larger sample of SBD estates to determine the effectiveness of the scheme. A more extensive application could involve either multiple compansons along the same lines as this pilot or possibly aggregation of SBD samples and comparison with appropriate control areas. As a by-product of the research some serious practical issues emerged concerning the operation of the scheme from the standpoint of developers. These issues, which should also be addressed in a subsequent more comprehensive study, are discussed briefly in an annex to the report. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research background An important recent initiative to reduce crime is the police's "Secured by Design" (SBD) scheme, aimed at reducing crime by encouraging builders to meet certain specified design criteria in both house security and estate layout. The scheme was launched by the police at the Guildhall, London in 1989, with the backing of the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) and the Home Office Crime Prevention Unit, as well as Ministers of State at the Home Office, Department of Environment and Welsh Office. The onginal sponsors were the South East Regional Crime Prevention Officers Committee (SERCPOC) but following extension of the scheme to most pans of Britain, subsequent responsibility for the national application of SBD has been taken on by the ACPO Project and Design Group. Although this initiative has been running for more than three years and has been taken up all over Britain - with 408 builders and 665 estates approved for "Secured by Design" at the time of the study - there has been no evaluation of its effectiveness. The ACPO Project and Design Group consider that this is urgently required. This has been underlined officially with the recent issue by the Department of the Environment of advice on planning and crime prevention1 promulgating the principles of SBD through the planning and development process. SBD applications have increased to include design guidelines for car parking, dwelling refurbishment and commercial property, but the proposed subject of examination is estate design, where development consists of more than four houses. The ramifications of proven effectiveness of SBD are considerable. Apart from the social benefits of reduced burglary etc. there are additional opportunities for builders to market SBD. Longer term SBD can contribute to more intelligent overall design for development, in which energy and transport efficiency, security and other desirable features are integrated. However, apart from the fact that a comprehensive study would be a major undertaking, it is prudent to examine the problems of appraisal of a diverse range of developments and test methodologies before devoting substantial resources on research. Thus it was agreed that the ACPO Project and Design Group would support a pilot exercise to define and assess evaluation methodology to provide the basis for a more detailed study. The area chosen for the test was the Hertfordshire Constabulary area (Herts Police District), which is coterminous with Herts County area bar part of the Borough of Broxbourne and the whole of the District of Hertsmere. Planning Out Crime, Department of the Environment Circular 5/94 HMSO February 1994. 1.2 Scope and objectives The proposed approach to the pilot study was to undertake a comparative analysis of crime figures for two housing developments, one an "SBD approved" estate the other an adjacent or nearby area not subject to this design process. The intention was to concentrate on domestic burglary, for which the SBD initiative has a particular relevance, although other crime could also be examined. The study sought specifically to do two things: i develop a useable methodological approach; ii identify data collection issues; However although not strictly part of the study it was thought useful, time permitting, if it could provide information on three other aspects; iii the SBD developer's views on the scheme; iv potential costs and benefits; v the time and resource effort required to prepare data, particularly the extraction of data from police records. The main body of this report deals with items (i)-(ii) above. Discussion of (iii)-(v) is set out in Annexes A-C. A supplementary note on crime trends analysis is found in Annex D. An investigation of this nature has to tackle the issue of comparability, such as the population mix of different areas, which can influence the incidence of crime. These are considered in the report but they are also factors which can only be fully addressed in a more comprehensive study. Nor was it possible within the limits of this exercise to carry out any general prior examination of local crime patterns. The extent to which the chosen study area and context area might be atypical in terms of their crime patterns or in respect of other parameters was not of primary relevance to the exercise. 2 SCHEME SELECTION The Consultant visited the Hertfordshire police headquarters Crime Management Department to identify candidate SBD developments. The main criteria were establishment for a reasonable period of time, to allow the estate to settle down, and size. Too small a development could mean no crimes recorded at all. which would not facilitate analysis. After a review of schemes in the county with the Architectural Liaison Officer, two developments were selected for closer inspection. These were located in St Albans and Watford Districts and had about 80 and 120 dwellings respectively. After driving out to see the developments it was clear that both composed similar small modern houses. However, adjacent to the Watford estate was a large area of public housing, indicating a different social mix. The St Albans estate was therefore chosen as the preferred SBD appraisal scheme. The location of the development (see Figure 1) is at London Colney, a small suburb south of St Albans. Figure 2 shows a part of the scheme from the architect's drawings. The estate was certificated for SBD in September 1990. The development was completed in the latter part of 1991, the first homes being sold in September. By the middle of 1992 most dwellings were sold and occupied. Figure 1 London Colney Location 1 n=^? Mmpton -QRDSHIRF s^-"-. \CORUM WELWYN HATFIELD /THREE RIVERS ark Strem/ Frcjgmoip Figure 2 SBD Estate (part) - Architect's Drawings r4 6 15 « ^"T^ 17 £&£&& ^SSS^SSSSX?&£^ "^ 18 3 EVALUATION METHOD 3.1 Analysis steps The approach to the appraisal is summarised in the following sequence of tasks: i define geographic comparison areas; ii define crime types; iii define crime period; iv extract data for (i) x (ii) x (iii) from police records; v set up analysis/test procedure; vi carry out tests.