SPACE SECURITY2009 spacesecurity.org SPACE 2009SECURITY SPACESECURITY.ORG iii Library and Archives Canada Cataloguing in Publications Data Space Security 2009 ISBN : 978-1-895722-74-1 © 2009 SPACESECURITY.ORG Edited by Jessica West Design and layout by Graphics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada Cover image: STS-112 Astronaut Wolf Participates in Extravehicular Activity NASA, 10 December 2002 Printed in Canada Printer: Pandora Press, Kitchener, Ontario First published August 2009 Please direct inquiries to: Project Ploughshares 57 Erb Street West Waterlo, Ontario Canada N2L 6C2 Telephone: 519-888-6541 Fax: 519-888-0018 Email: [email protected] iv Governance Group Jessica West Managing Editor, Project Ploughshares Dr. Wade Huntley Simons Centre for Disarmament and Non-proliferation Research, University of British Columbia Dr. Ram Jakhu Institute of Air and Space Law, McGill University Dr. William Marshall NASA-Ames Research Center/Space Generation Foundation John Siebert Project Ploughshares Dr. Ray Williamson Secure World Foundation Advisory Board Amb. Thomas Graham Jr. Special Assistant to the President for Arms Control, Nonproliferation and Disarmament (ret.) Hon. Philip E. Coyle III Center for Defense Information Richard DalBello Intelsat General Corporation Theresa Hitchens United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research Dr. John Logsdon The George Washington University (Prof. emeritus) Dr. Lucy Stojak M.L. Stojak Consultants/International Space University v Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 1 Acronyms PAGE 5 Introduction PAGE 7 Acknowledgements PAGE 9 Executive Summary PAGE 25 Chapter 1 – The Space Environment: this indicator examines the security and sustainability of the space environment with an emphasis on space debris, space situational awareness, and space resource issues. Trend 1.1: Growing risk to spacecraft as orbital debris continues to increase Trend 1.2: Continued efforts to develop and implement debris mitigation practices Trend 1.3: Space surveillance capabilities to support collision avoidance slowly improving Trend 1.4: Growing demand for radio frequency spectrum and orbital slots PAGE 43 Chapter 2 – Space Laws, Policies, and Doctrines: this indicator examines national and international laws, multilateral institutions, and military policies and doctrines relevant to space security. Trend 2.1: Gradual development of legal framework for outer space activities shifting away from adoption of multilateral treaties Trend 2.2: COPUOS remains active, but the Conference on Disarmament has been unable to agree on an agenda since 1996 Trend 2.3: National space policies consistently emphasize international cooperation and the peaceful uses of outer space Trend 2.4: Growing focus within national policies on the security uses of outer space PAGE 63 Chapter 3 – Civil Space Programs and Global Utilities: this indicator examines the civil space sector comprised of organizations engaged in the exploration of space or scientific research related to space, for non-commercial and non-military purposes as well as space-based global utilities provided by civil, military, or commercial actors. Trend 3.1: Growth in the number of actors with access to space, including dual-use applications Trend 3.2: Changing priorities and funding levels within civil space programs toward large-scale projects Trend 3.3: Continued international cooperation in civil space programs Trend 3.4: Growth in global utilities as states seek to expand applications and accessibility vii Space Security 2009 PAGE 83 Chapter 4 – Commercial Space: this indicator examines the commercial space sector, including the builders and users of space hardware and space information technologies. It also examines the sector’s relationship with governments and militaries. Trend 4.1: Continued overall growth in the global commercial space industry Trend 4.2: Commercial sector supporting increased access to space Trend 4.3: Government’s dependency on the commercial space sector means that subsidies and national security concerns continue to play an important role PAGE 102 Chapter 5 – Space Support for Terrestrial Military Operations: this indicator examines the research, development, testing and deployment of space systems that aim to advance terrestrial based military operations, such as communications, intelligence, navigation, and early warning. Trend 5.1: US and Russia continue to lead in deploying military space systems Trend 5.2: More states developing military and dual-use space capabilities PAGE 124 Chapter 6 – Space Systems Protection: this indicator examines the research, development, testing and deployment of capabilities to better protect space systems from potential negation efforts. Trend 6.1: US and Russia lead in ability to detect rocket launches, while US leads in development of technologies to detect direct attacks on satellites Trend 6.2: Efforts to protect satellite communications links but ground stations remain vulnerable Trend 6.3: Protection of satellites against some direct threats is improving but remains limited Trend 6.4: Efforts to develop capacity to rapidly rebuild space systems following direct attacks, but no operational capabilities PAGE 142 Chapter 7 – Space Systems Negation: this indicator examines the research, development, testing and deployment of capabilities designed to negate the capabilities of space systems from Earth or from space. Trend 7.1: Capabilities to attack ground stations and communications links are widely spread Trend 7.2: US leads in the development of space surveillance capabilities that can support negation Trend 7.3: Ongoing proliferation of ground-based capabilities to attack satellites Trend 7.4: Increased access to space-based negation enabling capabilities viii Table of Contents PAGE 160 Chapter 8 – Space-Based Strike Capabilities: this indicator examines the research, development, testing, and deployment of capabilities that could enable space- based strike systems, which operate from Earth orbit to damage or destroy either terrestrial targets or terrestrially launched objects passing through space. Trend 8.1: While no space-based strike systems have been tested or deployed, the US continues to develop technologies behind space-based interceptors for its missile defense system Trend 8.2: More countries are developing advanced space-based strike-enabling technologies through civil, commercial, and military programs PAGE 170 Annex 1: Expert Participation PAGE 172 Annex 2: Types of Earth Orbits PAGE 173 Annex 3: Worldwide Launch Vehicles PAGE 175 Annex 4: Spacecraft Launched in 2008 PAGE 179 Endnotes ix Acronyms 3GIRS Third Generation Infrared Surveillance Program (formerly AIRSS — US) ACRONYMS ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile ABL Airborne Laser (US) AEHF Advanced Extremely High Frequency system (US) ANGELS Autonomous Nanosatellite Guardian for Evaluating Local Space (US) ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASAT Anti-Satellite Weapon ASI Italian Space Agency ATV Automated Transfer Vehicle or Jules Verne (Europe) BASIC Broad Area Satellite Imagery Collection program (US) BMD Ballistic Missile Defense BNSC British National Space Centre BOC Besoin Operationnel Commun (Europe) BX-1 BinXiang-1 (China) CASC China Aerospace Corporation CD Conference on Disarmament CFE Commercial and Foreign Entities CFSP Common Security and Foreign Policy (Europe) CNES Centre National d’Études Spatiales (France) CNSA Chinese National Space Administration COPUOS United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space COSPAS-SARSAT International Satellite System for Search and Rescue COTS Commercial Orbital Transportation System (US) CSA Canadian Space Agency CSSI Center for Space Standards & Innovation DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (US) DART Demonstration of Autonomous Rendezvous Technology (US) DBS Direct Broadcasting by Satellite DGA Délégation Générale pour l’Armement (French Agency for Defense Development) DISCOS Database and Information System Characterising Objects in Space (Europe) DLR German Aerospace Center DOD Department of Defense (US) DRDO Defence Research and Development Organization (India) DSCS Defense Satellite Communications System (US) DSP Defense Support Program (US) EADS European Aeronautics Defence and Space Company EC European Commission EELV Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (US) EHF Extremely High Frequency EKV Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle ELINT Electronic Intelligence EMP Electromagnetic pulse (or HEMP for High Altitude EMP) EORSAT Electronic Intelligence Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (Russia) 1 Space Security 2009 ESA European Space Agency ESDP European Security and Defence Policy EUMETSAT European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites FAA Federal Aviation Administration (US) FAST Fast Access Spacecraft Testbed (US) FCC Federal Communications Commission (US) FMCT Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty FOBS Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (Russia) FREND Front-End Robotics Enabling Near-Term Demonstration (US) FSS Fixed Satellite Service GAGAN GPS and GEO Augmented Navigation (India) GEO Geostationary Orbit GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of Systems GLONASS Global Navigation Satellite System (Russia) GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (Europe) GNSS Global Navigator Satellite System GPS Global Positioning System (US) GRAVES Grande Réseau Adapté à la Veille Spatiale (France) GSLV Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (India) HAND High Altitude Nuclear Detonation HAARP High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program