JP2.25 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPWELLING: IS RECENT WEAKENING A RESULT OF GLOBAL WARMING? Steve LaDochy 1*,Pedro Ramirez 2 and William C. Patzert3 Department of Geography & Urban Analysis1 Department of Geological Sciences2 California State University, Los Angeles Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA, Pasadena, CA3 1. BACKGROUND Variations in the coupled oceanic/atmospheric system impact upwelling patterns and influence other climatic elements in the southern California area. Changes in the upwelling system in turn modify sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sea level heights, and coastal climate. This study examines upwelling patterns from 1946 to the present at three coastal locations, 30N, 119W; 33N, 119W; and 36N and 122W, and ties these patterns to variations in air-sea interactions. While upwelling is controlled daily mostly by local characteristics of winds, the California Current (CC), coastal topography and bathymetry, larger atmospheric feature such as El Niño/La Niña episodes dominate local conditions. During strong El Niño events, more southerly winds bring warmer waters northward along the California coast. More anomalous northerly winds dominate during La Niña events. These events persist for Fig 1a. The study area-the southern California months and are often influenced by larger, longer- coast (map source: National Geographic). lasting atmospheric trends, such as the PDO. Atmospheric patterns during the last warm phase of the PDO, from approximately 1977- 1997, were on the whole different than those occurring during the preceding cold phase, from about 1946 to 1976. A recent possible switch back to the cold phase that started in 1998 is more variable and complex (Overland et al. 2000). Our results indicate that air-sea interactions on a large- scale do explain trends and variability of upwelling along the southern California coast. Additionally, these findings also point to the possible influences of global warming. Furthermore, local climatic records, reveal the influence of coastal atmospheric/oceanic variations on southern California climate. 2. INTRODUCTION Upwelling, which is strongest during the spring and summer seasons in the southern Califonia coastal area is associated with the eastern boundary California Current. _________________________________________ Fig 1b. Inset shows upwelling stations A, B and C; *Corresponding author address: Steve LaDochy, climate stations P (Pasadena), and S (Santa Dept. of Geography, California State University, Los Paula); SP, Scripps Pier; and the 3 components of Angeles, CA 90032; email: [email protected] the CCS in southern California. Consequently, upwelling patterns are influenced by Global warming trends, which span variations in the California Current System (CCS). decades, may also be another important factor The strength of the California Current varies influencing upwelling trends in the southern according to wind speed and direction. Variability of California area. Diffenbaugh, et al. (2004) suggest the CC combined with the complex bathymetry that increased land-sea thermal contrast enhances (islands, shallow banks, basins and troughs, and peak and late-season nearshore upwelling in the the irregular coastline) of the southern California northern limb of the California Current and coast results in spatial and temporal changes in decreases peak and late-season near-shore upwelling trends (Lynn and Simpson 1990). Three upwelling in the southern limb. Bakun (1990) major components comprise the CA Current relates the alongshore wind that drives upwelling to System (Fig. 1b). First is the eastern Pacific the strong pressure gradient set by differential boundary current moving cold water equatorward heating between land and sea. However, for from the N. Pacific. Another component is California (at 39N), he related increased upwelling poleward flowing undercurrent generally confined to from 1945 to 1975 to the possible influence of the continental slope and which surfaces as a global warming, but the upwelling trend declined counter-current. A third component of the CCS is back towards the mean since 1975. the Southern California Eddy (SCE) within the Bight, which results when the CA Current turns Di Lorenzo, et al. (2005) state that inshore south of Pt. Conception and poleward warming along the California coast and increased (Bray, et al. 1999). Within Bight circulation is marine stratification from 1950 to recently, reduces complex, often leading to small coastal eddies. the efficiency of upwelling, despite the increase in DiGiacomo and Holt (2001) used SAR satellite upwelling-favorable winds. The authors note that imagery to identify six unique synoptic patterns in SSTs have risen along the southern California the Bight circulation from eddy formations. Any coast 1.3oC between 1950 and 1999, but that this investigation of upwelling trends in the southern warming could as easily be attributed to large-scale California area must address the complexities of changes in the Pacific basin, such as the PDO, the California Current System. rather than by global warming or changes in the Ultimately, the California Current System, trend in surface heat flux. Similarly, coastal and consequently, upwelling trends are controlled temperature records correlate significantly to the by regional winds along the west coast control. monthly and annual PDO values, while precipitation Coastal winds are used to calculate upwelling and amounts correlate well to the Southern Oscillation upwelling indices. Local winds, such as the offshore Index (SOI) levels (LaDochy et al 2004). blowing Santa Ana’s prevalent during the fall, Upwelling trends and patterns at three coastal propel surface water away from the coast towards locations for the past 60 years are examined and deep ocean area thereby intensifying upwelling (Hu related to local winds, sea level heights, SSTs and and Lui 2003). Pacific climatic indices to establish trends and mechanisms responsible for changes observed. Large scale atmospheric/oceanographic Possible ties of upwelling to global warming and changes related to annual occurrences of El climate change are also investigated and Niño\La Niña events and decadal shifts associated speculation of their future impacts on southern with the PDO impact wind speeds, sea surface California upwelling presented. Finally, we relate temperatures, and, consequently, upwelling coastal variability to changes in southern California patterns. For example, warmer waters and climate and speculate how trends will impact future decreased upwelling is associated with El Niño climatic variability. events and the opposite occurs during a La Niña. Similarly, a negative phase of PDO should result in 3. PARAMETERS EXAMINED increased upwelling while decreased upwelling occurs with positive PDO. PDO regime shifts occur on the scale of ocean basins (Mantua et al., 1977). 3.1 Upwelling Indices. Monthly upwelling indices As previously mentioned, these atmospheric for northern Baja (station C), southern California changes should manifest themselves in the Bight (station B) and Monterey Bay, station A (30N, upwelling record. For example, Bograd and Lynn 119W; 33N, 119W and 36N, 122W) for 1946 to (2003) note significant change in the nearshore 2005 were obtained from the Pacific Fisheries CCS after the 1976-77 N. Pacific climate regime Environmental Laboratory (PFEL), NOAA shift. They show significant sea level height (http://www.pfel.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/i increases within the Bight, warming and increased ndices/upwelling /upwelling.html). These three stratification of ocean waters along with decreased sites are closest to our study area. upwelling particularly during the late spring and summer. 3.2 Sea Surface Temperatures. Sea surface temperature data used in the analyses were derived from measurements made from buoys off of Scripps Pier, LaJolla and the Santa Monica Pier. The Scripps buoy is maintained by U.C. San Diego bin/Timeseries/timeseries1.pl for 1950-present, to and the data extend from 1917-present, while look at impacts of oceanic conditions on southern Santa Monica Pier data runs 1948-present. Sea California climate variability. Precipitation data for surface temperature data from buoys centered at Pasadena and Santa Paula from 1948-2005 are 35N, 125W and operated by NOAA were also used from Western Regional Climate Center, Desert in this study (NOAA NCEP Reynolds-Smith Research Institute, Reno, NV at: Reanalysis). Monthly and annual temperatures and http://www.wrcc.dri.edu . anomalies were calculated for each location. These locations were chosen as they overlapped the 3.7 Streamflow (Discharge) Data. upwelling sites and provided continuous, long-term In the southern California area, numerous rivers data. and streams drain the San Gabriel and Santa Monica Mountains. Urbanization and the need for 3.3 Mean Sea Level. Mean monthly sea level data water storage and flood control has resulted in the for Los Angeles, Santa Monica and Scripps Pier, modification of many of these rivers. Only two LaJolla, were available from Proudman rivers we examined, Arroyo Seco near Pasadena Oceanographic Laboratory, Permanent Service for and Sespe Creek near Santa Paula, meet the Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) (http://www.pol.ac.uk) USGS definition of remaining unadulterated and are and for recent data from NOAA Center for used in this study relating to climate variability. Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, Stream flow discharge anomalies were calculated Tides & Currents website: and plotted, in water