WestminsterResearch http://www.westminster.ac.uk/westminsterresearch A comparative analysis of agenda-setting and political communication: a case study of the 2004 Cyprus Referendum Unvan Atas School of Media, Arts and Design This is an electronic version of a PhD thesis awarded by the University of Westminster. © The Author, 2010. This is an exact reproduction of the paper copy held by the University of Westminster library. The WestminsterResearch online digital archive at the University of Westminster aims to make the research output of the University available to a wider audience. Copyright and Moral Rights remain with the authors and/or copyright owners. Users are permitted to download and/or print one copy for non-commercial private study or research. Further distribution and any use of material from within this archive for profit-making enterprises or for commercial gain is strictly forbidden. Whilst further distribution of specific materials from within this archive is forbidden, you may freely distribute the URL of WestminsterResearch: (http://westminsterresearch.wmin.ac.uk/). In case of abuse or copyright appearing without permission e-mail [email protected] A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF AGENDA‐SETTING AND POLITICAL COMMUNICATION: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2004 CYPRUS REFERENDUM UNVAN ATAS A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the University of Westminster for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy May 2010 WESTMINSTER UNIVERSITY MEDIA, ART AND DESIGN DEPARTMENT 1 ABSTRACT This study is an investigation of cross‐national comparative analysis of agenda‐ setting and political communication process during the 2004 Cyprus Referendum. The main aim of the study is to explore the dynamics amongst political campaigners and news media in the agenda‐setting process in the referendum that was proposed by the United Nations General Secretary Kofi Annan to reunify the island after 50 years of division. This research is a unique subject to study as it has not been scrutinised by academics from a mass media and political communication perspective. There have only been a few attempts to compare the contents of election communication in different societies, particularly for referendum campaigns communication. To scrutinise the dynamics and discretionary power between the media professionals and political campaigners, I have employed the framework of the pioneering study of Semetko et al. (1991) The Formation of Campaign Agendas: A Comparative Analysis of Party and Media Roles in Recent American and British Elections. In this study I have explored the dynamics between the political campaigners, politicians and the news media over the agenda‐setting process and I have also investigated to what extent cultural and political factors influenced the political campaign design and the agenda‐setting power of the political actors. Additionally, the influence of media systems ‐ in particular print media on the agenda‐setting process has been examined. So, this study analysis not only contributes to the comparative studies, where there is a dearth of research scope, but it also contributes particularly to the literature of agenda‐setting research within the context of referendum elections, an area in which scholarly research is also neglected. Perhaps, most importantly, this study will also create a body of knowledge for likely future referendum studies in Cyprus on reunification 2 TABLE OF CONTENT ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..2 LIST OF FIGURES & TABLES…………………………………………………………………………………….5 LIST OF ABBREVIATION………………………………………………………………………………………….6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT……………………………………………………………………………………………8 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………………..10 CHAPTER 2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: AGENDA‐SETTING THEORY Agenda‐Setting as Political Communication Effects……………………………………………. 20 Agenda‐Setting; What it means & Why it is important to study…………………………..22 How Agenda‐Setting Works?……………………………………………………………………………… 24 MEDIA AGENDA‐SETTING…………………………………………………………………………………….36 How It Works……………………………………………………………………………………………………….37 INTERMEDIA AGENDA‐SETTING……………………………………………………………………………43 Further Consideration on Future Media Agenda‐Setting Studies………………………….44 CHAPTER 3 REFERENDUMS AROUND THE WORLD & POLITICAL CAMPAIGN COMMUNICATION Referendums……………………………………………………………………………………………………….49 Classification of Referendum Studies…………………………………………………………………..50 The Evolution of Political Campaigning………………………………………………………………..56 Theories of Political Communication Effects………………………………………………………..60 Agenda‐Setting Effects in Referendums……………………………………………………………….64 CHAPTER 4 THE CYPRUS ISSUE & ITS REFERENDUM CONTEXT A Historical Background of the Cyprus Issue………………………………………………………..67 The Development Process of the Annan Plan………………………………………………………72 CHAPTER 5 THE 2004 CYPRUS REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN CONTEXT Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………82 Setting the Scene of the Campaign………………………………………………………………………85 The Yes Camps.……………………………….…………………………………………………………………..88 The No Camps.……………………………….……………………………………….…………………………..90 Public Opinion Polls……………………………………….…………………………………………………….92 CHAPTER 6 POLITICAL SYSTEMS AND MASS MEDIA OF CYPRUS Cypriot Politics……………………………………….……………………………………………………………96 The Republic of Cyprus……………………………………….……………………………………………….98 3 Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus……………………………………….………………………….99 Political Parties in Cyprus……………………………………….………………………………………….102 Mass Media in Cyprus……………………………………….……………………………………………….110 The Press During the Referendum Election………………………………………………………..119 The Legal Framework & Regulatory Framework…………………………………………………131 CHAPTER 7 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Aim of the Study……………………………………….……………………………………………………….137 Objectives of the Study……………………………………….……………………………………….......137 Employed Research Method……………………………………….……………………………………..139 Employed Data Collection Techniques……………………………………………………………….141 An Original Contribution to Knowledge…………………………………………………………..…151 CHAPTER 8 ANALYSIS OF NEWS PRODUCTION PROCESS: INTERVIEWS 1. The Position of Politics & Politicians in Society: The Valuation of Politics……..155 2. News Media Professionals’ Orientations Toward Politics and Politicians: Pragmatic vs. Sacerdotal Orientation…………………………………………………………….... 157 3. Variation of Media Competition……………………………………….………………………….167 4. The Degree of Professionalisation of Election Campaign………………………….….177 CHAPTER 9 ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS’ ACTIVITIES Political Campaign Communication in North Cyprus………………………………………….186 Political Campaign Communication in South Cyprus………………………………………….203 CHAPTER 10 NEWSPAPERS’ CONTENT ANALYSIS The Scenario of the 2004 Referendum Election News Coverage………………………..227 The Prominence of the Referendum Election in the Press………………………………….228 The 2004 Referendum Election News in the Front‐Page Headlines…………………… 230 Types of Referendum Election Stories………………………………………………………………. 233 Partial or Impartial Press? ……………………………………….………………………………………..237 Media Agenda‐Setting Analysis……………………………………….…………………………………240 Intermedia Agenda‐Setting Analysis…………………………………………………………………..243 The Public Agendas……………………………………….…………………………………………………..248 The Press Agendas at the Referendum Election…………………………………………………250 CHAPTER 11 CONCLUSION……………………………………….……………………………………….258 REFERENCES ……………………………………….……………………………………….……………………276 APPENDIX 1……………………………………….……………………………………….……………………..288 APPENDIX 2……………………………………….……………………………………….……………………..289 APPENDIX 3……………………………………….……………………………………….……………………..292 4 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 The Acapulco Typology: Four Perspectives on Agenda‐Setting .............. 26 Figure 2.2 THEORETICAL MAP OF AGENDA‐SETTING ............................................... 31 Figure 2.3 Peeling an Onion ...................................................................................... 39 Figure 3.1 A Typology of Political Communication...…………………………………………….58 Figure 3.2 Variations in campaign effects ............................................................... 59 Figure 10.1 The Total Amount of News Items Published in the Four Analysed Newspapers ............................................................................................................ 228 Figure 10.2 The Total Amount of News in Turkish Language and Greek Cypriot Press ........................................................................................................................ 232 Figure 10.3 A Total View of the Positive, Negative & Balanced Headline News in Turkish Cypriot Newspapers………………………………………………………………………..…232 Figure 10.4 The Tone of News Analysis in the Turkish Language Press ................ 238 Figure 10.5 The Tone of News Analysis in the Greek Cypriot Press ....................... 238 Figure 10.6 The Frequency of the Use of Other News Sources in the Four Papers ................................................................................................... 244 Figure 10.7 Greek Cypriot Electorates’ Referendum Agenda: Reasons for No ..... 249 Figure 10.8 Turkish Cypriot Publics’ Referendum Agenda: Reasons for Yes .......... 250 LIST OF TABLES Table 4.1 The Result of the Referendum .................................................................. 70 Table 5.1 An Overview of the Political Parties and Movements Stances on the Annan Plan .................................................................................................... 91 Table 6.1 Votes and Seats in the 2001 Greek Cypriot Parliamentary Election…….109 Table 6.2 Votes and Seats in the 2003 Turkish Cypriot Parliamentary Election..…109