charterkc.com.au ADVISORY. RESEARCH. VALUATIONS. PROJECTS. INTRODUCTION Melbourne continues to emerge as a city of international significance. It was ranked as the world’s most liveable city for seven consecutive years between 2011-2017 and was ranked second in 2018 and 2019. Melbourne contains two universities ranked in the top 100 global universities. Victoria, the second-largest economy in Australia, contracted by -0.5% over FY 19/20 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Over the year to October 2020 the total number of people employed in Victoria fell by 124,600. Broad based industry shutdowns over the August – October period as a result of a second wave of COVID-19 infections caused a further contraction in the Victorian economy. As a result Victoria’s economic recovery is likely to be slower than that of other Australian states. DEMAND CONSIDERATIONS Victoria is the fastest-growing state in Australia and has recorded the highest population growth rate since Q3-2015. The majority of this growth has occurred within metropolitan Melbourne. Victoria in Future 2019 projections forecast that over the 2016 – 2051 period metropolitan Melbourne will house an additional 1.57 million households. Recent population growth across metropolitan Melbourne has been underpinned by high levels of overseas migration. The current border restrictions in place as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will result in population growth falling below that forecast in the short term. SUPPLY CONSIDERATIONS Melbourne’s housing stock is predominantly represented by detached housing; however, policy aspirations aim to achieve greater levels of higher density dwellings to accommodate future population growth. House price growth in Melbourne has been high over the last decade and supported the development of higher-density stock. House prices have recently moderated though remain high by historical standards. Melbourne continues to remain the leading supplier of new greenfield lots across Australia with an average of 14,400 greenfield lot sales recorded per annum over the 2010 – 2019 period. *Refer to end of report for all sources used in compiling this report. KEY CONSIDERATIONS MARKET INDICATORS DEMAND INDICATORS SUPPLY INDICATORS HOUSING MARKET GROWTH: Mambourin’s future population growth is expected to create 2019 median house price in The predominant age cohort Average annual vacant lot sales in significant demand for new housing Wyndham Vale. across Wyndham Vale, accounting Werribee and Wyndham Vale since for 36% of all residents. supply. With declining land supply in (Metro Melbourne = $690,000). 2014. the surrounding suburbs, Mambourin will be an attractive option for 10-year average annual house potential new home buyers. Largest household type, price growth in Wyndham Vale. 97% of dwellings in Wyndham Vale accounting for 45 % of all (Metro Melbourne = 5.8% p.a.). are detached houses. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT: A proposed households in Wyndham Vale. (Metro Melbourne = 68%) train station in Mambourin on the Geelong line is expected to provide access to the CBD. Adjacent to the station a proposed town centre is Median weekly rent for 3- Younger age demographic across bedroom houses in the local 72% of detached houses are owned expected to include 25,000 sq.m. of Wyndham Vale, with a median age area. 5 years younger than Metro outright or owned with a mortgage. retail floor space. A non-government (Metro Melbourne = 80%) (Metro Melbourne = $400 per Melbourne. P-12 school is also proposed. week). *Due to the limited data availability for Mambourin, the neighbouring suburbs of Werribee and Wyndham Vale are used as proxies to address market, demand & supply indicators in the area. LIVEABILITY AND LIFESTYLE CONNECTIVITY SUBURB CONTEXT & FUNDAMENTALS 33km southwest of the » Mambourin is a suburb within the Wetlands and District Park is currently under construction Melbourne CBD. City of Wyndham Local Government within Mambourin. Presidents Area (LGA). Located approximately Direct connectivity to the Park is a large recreational space Melbourne CBD, via Princes 33km south-west of the Melbourne located in Wyndham Vale. The Freeway. CBD and approximately 6km west of Werribee Park & Mansion and Werribee City Centre. Werribee Open Range Zoo are Proximity to the Geelong CBD, popular leisure options, located in Melbourne CBD, Sunshine & » Over recent years the Wyndham LGA the nearby suburb of Werribee. Parkville Employment precincts. has recorded significant levels of The Geelong Line provides greenfield development with many A new town centre is proposed connections to the Melbourne new suburbs being developed. within Mambourin. Manor Lakes CBD and Greater Geelong from Central, Wyndham Vale Square » The suburb of Mambourin is bound Wyndham Vale Station with a Pacific Werribee and Werribee by Wyndham Vale to the north and future Mambourin Station also City Centre are in close proximity. proposed. The Werribee line north-east, Werribee to the south provides metro services to the and east and Little River to the west. A proposed P-12 non-government Melbourne CBD from Werribee » Mambourin and other developing school is planned for Mambourin. Station. Wyndham Vale and Werribee areas of Wyndham LGA are forecast contain numerous primary and Approximately 45 minutes drive to house more than 29,000 residents secondary schools. Victoria to Melbourne Airport via the by 2036. University’s Werribee Campus is Princes Freeway and the also in close proximity. Western Ring Road. Avalon » Unlike other areas of the Wyndham Airport is approximately 25 LGA, only the initial stages of Club Mambourin is a proposed minutes drive via the Princes residential development have recreation centre with facilities to Freeway. occurred in the area surrounding include: Swimming Pools, Spa, Werribee Mercy & St. Vincent Mambourin. Café, Gymnasium, Function Room, Barbecue and Picnic Area. Private Hospitals anchor a major medical precinct. PRICE INDICATORS MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE TIME SERIES – WERRIBEE &WYNDHAM VALE (1995 - 2019) The 2019 median house prices across Wyndham Vale ($462,500) and Werribee ($505,000), were lower than that of both the Wyndham LGA ($560,000) and metropolitan Melbourne ($690,000). Housing price growth across both Wyndham Vale (+7.7% p.a) and Werribee (+10% p.a) has significantly outperformed that of metropolitan Melbourne (2.5% p.a) over the last three years. The consistent price growth observed across the region over the last decade is evidence of growing demand for housing across the local area. In contrast to metropolitan Melbourne, Wyndham Vale and Werribee have been less impacted by the recent *These are the figures from APM and reflect the transacted and settled sales recorded by APM. softening of the broader metropolitan housing market. PRICE RELATIVITY 2019 MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE (ALL BEDROOMS) – MAMBOURIN & SURROUNDING SUBURBS In comparison to other surrounding suburbs in the south western growth corridor of metropolitan Melbourne, Wyndham Vale represented the most affordable suburb, with a median house price of $462,500. In comparison, Point Cook represents the most expensive, with a median house price of $628,000. Across Melbourne’s south western growth corridor, the more mature greenfield locations, with established lifestyle and retail amenity (Point Cook & Tarneit), have recorded the highest median house prices followed by the older established suburbs of Hoppers Crossing and Werribee. Wyndham Vale, being a less mature suburb located further from the Melbourne CBD, recorded the lowest median house price across the south western growth corridor. RENTAL MARKET INDICATORS MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTS & AVERAGE ANNUAL % CHANGE (HOUSES - 3 BEDROOMS)* As at the end of Q2-2020, the median weekly rent for a 3-bedroom house within the Werribee – Hoppers Crossing district ($350 per week) was less than the metropolitan Melbourne equivalent ($400 per week). Median weekly rental price growth for 3- bedroom houses across the Werribee – Hoppers Crossing district outperformed that of metropolitan Melbourne over the last 3,5 and 10 years. Despite the higher rental price growth observed over the last 3 years, 3-bedroom houses across the Werribee – Hoppers Crossing district continue to be rented for below the metropolitan Melbourne average. As at Q2 2020 the median weekly rent for 3- *These rents are taken from the Department of Health and Human Services (DHS), and are based on the DHHS bedroom houses within the Werribee- geographies. The DHS does not separately classify Wyndham Vale or Mambourin in its data and so the district of Hoppers Crossing District was $50 per week ‘Werribee – Hoppers Crossing’ has been used as a proxy for market rents. below that of metropolitan Melbourne. POPULATION INDICATORS POPULATION GROWTH – WERRIBEE – WYNDHAM VALE DISTRICT* (2018-2036) Based on the Victoria in Future (VIF) 2019 population projections, the population in the Werribee – Wyndham Vale VIFSA* is forecast to grow from 57,000 in 2016 to 140,000 by 2036 at an average annual rate of + 4.5% p.a. The population was estimated to be 63,000 as at 2018. Population growth in Western Melbourne will continue to increase, due to the vast availability of new housing opportunities throughout the corridor. Wyndham Vale’s location in one of Melbourne’s primary growth corridors will see the population grow significantly over the short term. The availability of *Werribee-Wyndham Vale district includes the suburbs of Werribee, Wyndham Vale, Mambourin, Little River & undeveloped residential land in the local Quandong. area