US Army Corps of Engineers® Brekke and others Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective —Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective— —Climate Change and Water Circular 1331 Circular 1331 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective By Levi D. Brekke, Julie E. Kiang, J. Rolf Olsen, Roger S. Pulwarty, David A. Raff, D. Phil Turnipseed, Robert S. Webb, and Kathleen D. White Circular 1331 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior DIRK KEMPTHORNE, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Mark D. Myers, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2009 For product and ordering information: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod Telephone: 1–888–ASK–USGS For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov Telephone: 1–888–ASK–USGS Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted material contained within this report. Cover: Photograph showing Parker Dam in Arizona and California. Photograph courtesy Bureau of Reclamation. Back cover (clockwise from top left corner): U.S. Geological Survey suspended sediment sampling at Little Colorado River in Arizona; Salt-Gila project in Arizona (courtesy Bureau of Reclamation); U.S. Geological Survey discharge measurement at Goose River in North Dakota; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers pump and levee at Davenport, Iowa (courtesy U.S. Army Corps of Engineers); sandbags and a temporary floodwall in Hannibal, Mo. (courtesy U.S. Army Corps of Engineers); and Mark Twain Lake and Clarence Cannon Dam in Missouri (courtesy U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). Suggested citation: Brekke, L.D., Kiang, J.E., Olsen, J.R., Pulwarty, R.S., Raff, D.A., Turnipseed, D.P., Webb, R.S., and White, K.D., 2009, Climate change and water resources management—A federal perspective: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1331, 65 p. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/.) ISBN 978–1–4113–2325–4 iii Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................1 Chapter 1—Introduction ......................................................................................................................1 Chapter 2—Tracking Climate Change Impacts ................................................................................1 Chapter 3—Anticipating Climate Change: Available Climate Information for Decisionmaking in Long-Range Planning ...........................................................................2 Chapter 4—Anticipating Climate Change: Approaches for Decisionmaking .............................2 Chapter 5—Responding to Climate Change: Adaptation Options ................................................2 Chapter 6—Opportunities for Advancing Planning Capabilities ..................................................3 1 Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................5 1.1 Is Climate Changing? ....................................................................................................................5 1.2 What Climate Changes are of Most Concern to Water Resources Management? ...........6 1.3 How is Climate Information Used in Water Resources Management? ................................7 1.4 Other Changes Affecting Water Resources Management .....................................................8 1.5 Sector Impacts Due to Climate Change ....................................................................................9 2 Tracking Climate Change Impacts ........................................................................................................13 2.1 Tracking Hydrologic Change: Monitoring Networks .............................................................13 2.2 Tracking Hydrologic Change: Trend Analysis .........................................................................13 2.3 Improving Process Understanding and Modeling Capabilities ..........................................15 3 Anticipating Climate Change: Available Climate Information for Decisionmaking in Long-Range Planning ....................................................................................................................17 3.1 Use of Climate Information in General Long-Range Systems Evaluations ........................17 3.1.1 Establishing Assumptions and a Plausible Planning Future Through Traditional Use of Instrumental Records ..................................................................17 3.1.2 Expanding the Set of Plausible Planning Futures Using Stochastic Modeling and Paleoclimate Information .................................................................18 3.1.3 Defining Plausible Planning Futures Based on Climate Projection Information ...................................................................................................................19 3.2 Use of Climate Information in Flood-Risk Evaluations ...........................................................20 3.2.1 Flood-Risk Evaluation Methods .....................................................................................20 3.2.2 Incorporating Climate Projection Information Into Flood-Risk Evaluations ..........20 3.2.3 Incorporating Paleoflood Information Into Flood-Risk Evaluations ........................21 3.3 Recent Reclamation and USACE Planning Applications Involving the Use of Expanded Climate Information Sets ...................................................................................21 3.4 Summary and Discussion ..........................................................................................................21 4 Anticipating Climate Change: Approaches for Decisionmaking .....................................................23 4.1 Decisions and Scales..................................................................................................................23 4.2 Describing Future Climate for Planning ...................................................................................23 4.3 Incorporating Uncertainties in Planning .................................................................................25 4.4 Other Methods for Choosing Alternatives ...............................................................................25 4.4.1 Robust Decision Criteria .................................................................................................25 4.4.2 Adaptive Management ...................................................................................................26 4.5 Summary .......................................................................................................................................26 iv 5 Responding to Climate Change: Adaptation Options .........................................................................29 5.1 Adaptation Options Involving Operational Changes ..............................................................29 5.2 Adaptation Options Involving Water-Demand Management ...............................................30 5.3 Adaptation Options Involving Infrastructure Modifications .................................................30 5.4 Challenges ....................................................................................................................................31 5.5 Summary .......................................................................................................................................31 6 Opportunities To Improve Planning Capabilities ...............................................................................33 6.1 Knowledge Gaps and Potential Research Priorities ............................................................33 6.2 Gaps in Existing Hydrologic and Meteorologic Data Networks .........................................35 6.3 Understanding and Incorporating Nonstationarity Concepts ..............................................35 6.4 Opportunities To Improve Planning ..........................................................................................36 6.5 Opportunities for Further Collaboration ...................................................................................36 6.6 Summary .......................................................................................................................................37 7 References Cited .....................................................................................................................................39 Appendix A. Paleoclimate Reconstruction of Past Droughts and Floods .........................................47 A1 Drought Reconstruction .............................................................................................................47 A2 Flood Reconstruction ..................................................................................................................48 A3 References Cited .........................................................................................................................48 Appendix B. Downscaling General Circulation