Author: Harald Müller Carmen Wunderlich Marco Fey Klaus-Peter Ricke Annette Schaper Research 2014:04 Non-proliferation ‘Clubs’ vs. the NPT Report number: 2014:04 ISSN: 2000-0456 Available at www.stralsakerhetsmyndigheten.se SSM perspective Background The Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) is among other things an administrative authority for issues of nuclear non-proliferation. SSM contribute to withholding and developing national competence for cur- rent and future needs within the authority’s area of responsibility and therefore takes initiative to research. In terms of nuclear non-proliferation, the Authority shall seek to ensure that nuclear material and technology are not used for nuclear weapons. The Authority oversees the nuclear material in Sweden and Swedish nuclear facilities, equipment and technology is used as declared in ac- cordance with Sweden’s international commitments. The study is the result of a call for tenders which took place in autumn 2013. Objectives The purpose of this study is to gather and disseminate knowledge, to support SSM in the international work, and to build knowledge in the long term in nuclear non-proliferation. Results The study analyses the relationship between the Nuclear Non-Prolifera- tion Treaty, NPT and various initiatives and institutions (‘clubs’) based outside the NPT framework, which aims to improve and strengthen the Treaty. The study identifies conflicts and possible synergies and propo- ses options for developing and improving the interaction between the NPT and ‘clubs’ in order to increase the overall efficiency. The report describes facts about the various non-proliferation ‘clubs’, and also analyses and formulates conclusions about the various interna- tional initiatives in non-proliferation. The subject is vast and the report therefore cannot naturally go in depth but provides useful information for those working in the area, but also for those generally interested. The report contains several ideas that can be studied further. Project information Contact person SSM: Henrik Moberg Reference: SSM2013-3347 SSM 2014:04 Authors: Harald Müller, Carmen Wunderlich, Marco Fey, Klaus-Peter Ricke and Annette Schaper PRIF/HSFK, Frankfurt, Germany 2014:04 Non-proliferation ‘Clubs’ vs. the NPT Date: Januari 2014 Report number: 2014:04 ISSN: 2000-0456 Available at www.stralsakerhetsmyndigheten.se This report concerns a study which has been conducted for the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, SSM. The conclusions and view- points presented in the report are those of the author/authors and do not necessarily coincide with those of the SSM. SSM 2014:04 Content List of Figures .......................................................................................... 3 List of Abbreviations ............................................................................... 4 Summary ................................................................................................... 6 Sammanfattning ..................................................................................... 10 Chapter I: Introduction .......................................................................... 14 1. Plan of the Study ............................................................................... 17 2. Methodological Approach ................................................................ 19 Chapter II: Case Studies ....................................................................... 20 1. The Nuclear Suppliers Group ........................................................... 20 1.1. Description ................................................................................... 20 1.1.1. Mission ................................................................................. 20 1.1.2. Membership ......................................................................... 21 1.1.3. Structure and Organization .................................................. 21 1.1.4. Decision-Making Structure................................................... 22 1.1.5. Outreach .............................................................................. 23 1.1.6. Confrontational versus Cooperative Instruments ................ 23 1.2. Assessment ................................................................................. 24 1.2.1. Internal and External Evaluation .......................................... 24 1.2.2. Reasons for Success or Shortcomings ............................... 25 1.2.3. The Outliers’ Criticism .......................................................... 25 1.3. What’s next? ................................................................................ 28 1.3.1. Involvement of Companies/Best Practices .......................... 28 1.3.2. Post-Shipment Control ......................................................... 28 2. The Proliferation Security Initiative ................................................. 30 2.1. Description ................................................................................... 30 2.1.1. Mission ................................................................................. 30 2.1.2. Membership ......................................................................... 32 2.1.3. Structure and Organization .................................................. 32 2.1.4. Decision- Making Structure.................................................. 34 2.1.5. Outreach .............................................................................. 34 2.1.6. Confrontational versus Cooperative Instruments ................ 37 2.2. Assessment ................................................................................. 38 2.2.1. Internal Evaluation ............................................................... 38 2.2.2. External Evaluation and Reasons for its Success and Shortcoming ................................................................................... 39 2.2.3. The Outliers’ Criticism .......................................................... 40 2.3. What’s next? ................................................................................ 40 3. The G8 Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction .............................................................. 42 3.1. Description ................................................................................... 42 3.1.1. Mission ................................................................................. 42 3.1.2. Membership and Organization ............................................ 43 3.1.3. Decision-Making Structure................................................... 45 3.1.4. Outreach .............................................................................. 45 3.1.5. Confrontational versus Cooperative Instruments ................ 46 3.2. Assessment ................................................................................. 47 3.2.1. Internal and External Evaluation .......................................... 47 3.2.2. The Outliers’ Criticism .......................................................... 49 3.3. What’s next? ................................................................................ 49 4. GTRI Global Threat Reduction Initiative ......................................... 51 SSM 2014:04 4.1. Description ................................................................................... 51 4.1.1. Mission ................................................................................. 52 4.1.2. Membership ......................................................................... 54 4.1.3. Structure and Organization .................................................. 54 4.1.4. Decision-Making Structure................................................... 54 4.1.5. Outreach .............................................................................. 55 4.1.6. Confrontational versus Cooperative Instruments ................ 55 4.2. Assessment ................................................................................. 56 4.2.1. Internal Evaluation ............................................................... 56 4.2.2. External Evaluation .............................................................. 58 4.2.3. Reasons for Success and Shortcomings ............................ 59 4.3. What’s next? ................................................................................ 61 5. Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism ............................... 63 5.1. Description ................................................................................... 63 5.1.1. Mission ................................................................................. 63 5.1.2. Membership ......................................................................... 64 5.1.3. Structure and Organization .................................................. 65 5.1.4. Decision-Making Structure................................................... 66 5.1.5. Outreach .............................................................................. 67 5.1.6. Confrontational versus Cooperative Instruments ................ 67 5.2. Assessment ................................................................................. 68 5.2.1. Internal and External Evaluation .......................................... 68 5.2.2. Reasons for Success and Shortcomings ............................ 69 5.2.3. The Outliers’ Criticism .......................................................... 69 5.3. What’s next? ...............................................................................