This PDF is available from The National Academies Press at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13430 A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling ISBN Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling; Board 978-0-309-25977-4 on Atmospheric Studies and Climate; Division on Earth and Life Studies 300 pages 7 x 10 PAPERBACK (2012) Visit the National Academies Press online and register for... Instant access to free PDF downloads of titles from the NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL 10% off print titles Custom notification of new releases in your field of interest Special offers and discounts Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the National Academies Press. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Request reprint permission for this book Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling A NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ADVANCING CLIMATE MODELING Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling Board on Atmospheric Studies and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special compe- tences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under con- tract DG133R-08-CO-0062 Task Order #12, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract NNX08AB07G, the National Science Foundation under Grant No. ATM-0809051, the Department of Energy under contract DE-SC0005113, and the U.S. intelligence community. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agency or any of its subagencies. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-25977-4 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-25977-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2912954954 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http:// www.nap.edu/ . Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin- guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is presi- dent of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autono- mous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Acad- emy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, en- courages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to se- cure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and educa- tion. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering com- munities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling COMMITTEE ON A NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ADVANCING CLIMATE MODELING CHRIS BRETHERTON (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle V. BALAJI, Princeton University, New Jersey THOMAS DELWORTH, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Texas, Austin JAMES A. EDMONDS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, Maryland JAMES S. FAMIGLIETTI, University of California, Irvine INEZ FUNG, University of California, Berkeley JAMES J. HACK, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee JAMES W. HURRELL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado DANIEL J. JACOB, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JAMES L. KINTER III, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland LAI-YUNG RUBY LEUNG, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington SHAWN MARSHALL, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada WIESLAW MASLOWSKI, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California LINDA O. MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado RICHARD B. ROOD, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor LARRY L. SMARR, University of California, San Diego NRC Staff: EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer KATIE THOMAS, Associate Program Officer ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator APRIL MELVIN, Christine Mirzayan Science and Policy Fellow, 2011 ALEXANDRA JAHN, Christine Mirzayan Science and Policy Fellow, 2012 v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado RICHARD (RIT) CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia GREG S. FORBES, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey ANTHONY JANETOS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland HAROON S. KHESHGI, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey MICHAEL D. KING, University of Colorado, Boulder JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin-Madison ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California ROBERT J. LEMPERT, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California ROGER B. LUKAS, University of Hawaii, Honolulu SUMANT NIGAM, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, Maryland RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, The University of Chicago, Illinois KIMBERLY PRATHER, University of California, San Diego RICH RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, D.C. DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway KIRK R. SMITH, University of California, Berkeley JOHN T. SNOW, The University of Oklahoma, Norman CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson NRC Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer MAGGIE WALSER, Program Officer KATIE THOMAS, Associate Program Officer LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate vi Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator DANIEL MUTH, Postdoctoral Fellow ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant ELIZABETH FINKLEMAN, Program Assistant GRAIG MANSFIELD, Financial Associate vii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights