Evaluation of the Irrigation and Water Resource Management Project in Senegal: Interim Evaluation Report July 29, 2019 Thomas Coen Sarah M. Hughes Matthew Ribar William Valletta Kristen Velyvis Submitted to: Millennium Challenge Corporation 875 Fifteenth St. NW Washington, DC 20005 Project Officer: Ishani Desai Contract Number: 95332418C0126 Submitted by: Mathematica Policy Research 1100 1st Street, NE 12th Floor Washington, DC 20002-4221 Telephone: (202) 484-9220 Facsimile: (202) 863-1763 Project Director: Sarah M. Hughes Reference Number: 50220 The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of MCC or any other U.S. Government entity. This page has been left blank for double-sided copying. IWRM EVALUATION INTERIM REPORT MATHEMATICA POLICY RESEARCH CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................... xi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................................... xiii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. xv I. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 1 II. OVERVIEW OF THE COMPACT AND THE PROJECT .................................................................. 3 A. Overview of the Compact .......................................................................................................... 3 B. Overview of the IWRM Project .................................................................................................. 3 1. Activities .............................................................................................................................. 4 2. IWRM timeline and program logic ....................................................................................... 7 III. LITERATURE REVIEW.................................................................................................................. 11 A. Irrigation infrastructure ............................................................................................................ 11 B. Land tenure security and administration ................................................................................. 13 C. Gaps in the literature, and the contribution of the IWRM Project evaluation .......................... 15 IV. EVALUATION DESIGN.................................................................................................................. 17 A. Design overview and research questions for the interim evaluation ....................................... 17 B. Interim evaluation timeline and data collection overview ........................................................ 19 C. Quantitative evaluation methodology ...................................................................................... 20 1. Matched comparison group design for the Delta .............................................................. 20 2. Pre-post analysis for Podor ............................................................................................... 33 D. Qualitative Methodology for the Delta and Podor.................................................................... 39 1. Study sample .................................................................................................................... 39 2. Qualitative data collection process ................................................................................... 41 3. Qualitative analysis ........................................................................................................... 42 E. Case study analysis for the LTSA institutional outcomes study .............................................. 42 1. Study sample .................................................................................................................... 43 2. Case study data collection ................................................................................................ 46 3. Case study analysis .......................................................................................................... 47 V. EVALUATION FINDINGS: DELTA ................................................................................................ 49 A. Summary of key findings ......................................................................................................... 49 B. Use and availability of water .................................................................................................... 50 iii IWRM EVALUATION INTERIM REPORT MATHEMATICA POLICY RESEARCH 1. Source, availability, and access to water for agriculture production ................................. 51 2. Area of irrigated land ......................................................................................................... 55 3. Role of WUAs .................................................................................................................... 57 C. Agricultural production ............................................................................................................. 58 1. Impacts on agricultural land use ....................................................................................... 59 2. Crop choices and production methods ............................................................................. 64 3. Rice production, revenue, and investment ....................................................................... 66 4. Total agricultural production, including other crops .......................................................... 71 D. Agricultural profits and household income .............................................................................. 73 1. Changes in agricultural profits .......................................................................................... 74 2. Changes in household income .......................................................................................... 76 E. Land administration and governance ...................................................................................... 77 1. Effectiveness of local government land management and conflict resolution .................. 77 2. Support for commune-level land institutions ..................................................................... 83 3. Farmers’ perceptions of land institutions’ effectiveness ................................................... 84 4. LTSA influence outside project areas ............................................................................... 85 F. Land security and land conflicts .............................................................................................. 86 1. Changes in the extent of land formalization ...................................................................... 86 2. Changes in perceptions of land tenure security ................................................................ 88 3. Demand for land formalization .......................................................................................... 88 4. Changes in the number, severity, and type of land conflicts ............................................ 89 5. Women’s access to land ................................................................................................... 90 6. How changes in land security have affected investments on land ................................... 91 7. Constraints and barriers to land access............................................................................ 93 G. Sustainability............................................................................................................................ 93 H. Summary of Delta findings ...................................................................................................... 95 VI. EVALUATION FINDINGS: PODOR ............................................................................................... 99 A. Summary of key findings ......................................................................................................... 99 B. Use and availability of water .................................................................................................. 101 1. Source, availability, and access to water for agriculture production ............................... 102 2. Amount of irrigated land .................................................................................................. 106 3. Water management and the role of the WUA ................................................................. 107 C. Agricultural production ........................................................................................................... 108 1. Changes in land use ....................................................................................................... 109 iv IWRM EVALUATION INTERIM REPORT MATHEMATICA POLICY RESEARCH 2. Crop choices and diversification ..................................................................................... 115 3. Rice production, revenue, and investment ..................................................................... 116 4. Agricultural production for women, the poor, and the landless ....................................... 118 5. Total production, including other crops ..........................................................................