NOVEMBER, 1931 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE WASHINGTON VOLUME II NUMBER II EXPLANATORY The Survey of Current Business is designed to present or decrease compared with the base period. Thus, a •each month a picture of the business situation by setting relative number of 115 means an increase of 15 per forth the principal facts regarding the various lines of cent over the base period, while a relative number of trade and industry. The figures are very largely those 80 means a decrease of 20 per cent from the base. already in existence. The chief function of the Survey Relative numbers may also be used to calculate the is to bring together those data which, if available at all, approximate percentage increase or decrease in a are scattered in hundreds of different publications. A movement from one period to the next. Thus, if a portion of these data are collected by Government relative number at one month is 120 and for a later departments, other figures are compiled by technical month is 144, there has been an increase of 20 per cent. journals, and still others are reported by trade asso- When two or more series of relative numbers are ciations. The Survey of Current Business computes combined by a system of weightings, the resulting the indexes on total stocks, new orders, agricultural series is denominated an index number. The index marketings, crop marketings, and unfilled orders based number, by combining many relative numbers, is on available data. designed to show the trend of an entire group of indus- tries, or for the country as a whole, instead of for the SOURCES OF DATA single commodity or industry which the relative The sources and inclusiveness of the data appearing number covers. Comparisons with the base year or in the table "Monthly Business Statistics" will be with other periods are made in the same manner as found noted in the 1931 Annual Supplement to the in the case of relative numbers. Survey of Current Business, and the sources of the weekly data are given on page 4 of the February 5, SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO INDEXES 1931, issue of the Weekly Supplement to the Survey of Seasonal variations are found in most series of eco- Current Business. nomic statistics for which monthty values are obtain- HISTORICAL DATA able. Consumption and production of commodities, Monthly data on all the various series carried in the interest rates, bank clearings, railroad freight traffic, Monthly Survey will be found in the 1931 Annual and many other types of data are marked by seasonal Supplement to the Survey, running back seven years swings repeated with minor variations year after year. and in some cases eight years. Data previous to that These, in so far as they exist at all, are definitely included in the 1931 Annual Supplement will be found periodic in character, with a constant 12-month period. in the monthly Surveys prior to 1924. In cases where an adjustment is noted for a series car- ried in the Survey, the index has been corrected for RELATIVE AND INDEX NUMBERS number of working or business days in the various To facilitate comparison between different important months and then adjusted for seasonal variation, items and to chart series expressed in different units, The index figures thereby become comparable through- relative numbers (often called "index numbers," a out the series. term referring more particularly to a special kind of METHODS OF USE fiumbers described below) have been calculated. The monthly average for 1923-1925 has usually been used Methods of using and interpreting current business as a base equal to 100. statistics have been collected by the Department of The relative numbers are computed by allowing the Commerce from many business concerns and are monthly average for the base year to equal 100. If described in a booklet entitled "How to Use Current the movement for the current month is greater than Business Statistics," together with methods of collect- the base, the relative number will be greater than 100, ing statistics. This booklet may be obtained from the and vice versa. The difference between 100 and the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing relative number will give at once the per cent increase Office, Washington, D. C., at 15 cents per copy. Volume 11 NOVEMBER, 1931 Number 11 WEEKLY DATA THROUGH OCTOBER 24, 1931 MONTHLY DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS PUBLISHED BY UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON CONTENTS Page Monthly business indicators _ 2 Business situation summarized _ 3 Finance _ 4 1931 in comparison __ 6 Commodity prices. __ _. 7 Employment _ _. 8 Domestic trade 9 Foreign trade . 10 Transportation _ 11 Construction _ _ __ 12 Agriculture _ _ 13 Iron and steel industry __ 14 Chemical industries _ _ __ 15 Automobile and rubber industries. _ _ 16 Textiles industry __._ _._ „. 17 Food industries 18 Forest products industry 19 Miscellaneous industries __ 20 New and revised series _ 21 Weekly business statistics _ 22 Monthly business statistics (Index) _ 23 Subscription price of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Is $1.50 a year which includes the 12 monthly numbers, the annual supple- ment, and the 52 weekly supplements; single copies (monthly), 10 cents; annual supplement, 25 cents. Foreign subscriptions without weekly supplements, $2.50; single copies (monthlyissues),including postage, 14 cents; annual supplement, 36 cents. Make remit- tances only to Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C., by postal money order, express order, or New York draft. Currency at sender's risk. Postage stamps or foreign money not accepted 83293—31 1 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS November, 1931 Monthly Business Indicators 1923-1925=100 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (40 120 r\vv^*V 100 \ f^ J.JJLLLI1L1J311111ALL1 80 50 M 1 FACTORY EMPLOYMENT FACTORY PAYROLLS 125 120 UMDJUSTED ADJUSTED* 100 loo h^ ^*^* \ X 60 X s ! 75 i i | 1 1 ! i i 1 ! t I U 1 1. 1 ) 1 ' i UJJjJ_LLLLL lJJJ_LJJ-i_LLL*n nvi LI a 60 TOTAL FREIGHT CAR LOADINGS CAR LOADINGS L.C.L. 130 120 70LLi I ! ! I 5 I I I ! I M ! I M 1 I I H ! ilifl I il\ DEPARTMENT STORE SALES WHOLESALE PRICES 220 120 100 VALUE OF EXPORTS VALUE OF IMPORTS !50 150 SCO 100 5QJJ 1 M Lii i ! I I it I I i i M 11 5Q LLUJ-LJLLLllll I i I I 11 I I LI I I I ! M 11 U i ! I i I I I ! 11 i i I I if! ! >TH»1 I I S BANK DEBITS OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY BUILDING CONTRACTS AWARDED ZOO ZOO 150 150 100 100 50 50 1927 192S 59E9 1930 1931 1927 1926 1929 1930 1931 * ADJUSTMENT FOR NUMBER OF WORKING DAYS AND SEASONAL VARIATION November, 1931 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Business Situation Summarized NLY slight change occurred in the volume of busi- crease is usual at this time. After adjustment, the O ness in September and early October, and such industrial production index and the subsidiary series gains as were realized were smaller than the usual sea- of manufacturing and mineral production all moved sonal increases. Freight-car loadings expanded; re- downward. The general index for September was 3.8 tail trade, as measured by department store and mail- per cent below August and 16 per cent below a year order sales, increased; foreign trade advanced slightly; ago. The latter decline was the same as the cumula- and bank debits were larger, but in each instance the tive deficiency for the nine months, but the drop in gain was less than the normal seasonal increase. Build- the third quarter was slightly less, 14 per cent, as ing contract awards in September increased contrary to compared with the same period of 1930. the usual trend, but the gain was not held in the first half The slight gain in factory employment in September of October. The index, which is based on a 3-month was not of seasonal proportions, and there was a further moving average, again declined. Wholesale prices de- reduction in pay-roll totals. Employment in Septem- clined in September after holding steady since June, ber was 73 per cent of the 1923-1925 average, while due largely to declines in the prices of farm products. pay rolls were but 62 per cent of the average for the Industrial production failed to expand in September, same period. Pay-roll gains in September were con- and further declines marked the iron and steel, auto- fined to the clothing, food, and chemical groups, with motive, and building material industries. Activity in all other major classes reporting declines. major lines producing articles for direct consumption Security markets were reactionary in September and continues at a relatively high level, particularly in the early October, but efforts to strengthen the domestic textile and food products industries, although some banking situation have improved sentiment and re- slackening was noted in the leather and rubber prod- sulted in an upward reaction. Reserve bank credit ucts industries. The index of industrial production has continued to expand, and gold withdrawals, through was off slightly as a result of continued declines in the export and earmarking operations, for a time assumed mineral industry, influenced principally by the reduc- extremely large proportions, but recently the rate of tion in iron ore and petroleum production. The index withdrawal has slackened. Money rates have firmed of manufacturing was unchanged, but a seasonal in- as a result of recent developments. MONTHLY BUSINESS INDEXES i ! , I Factory em-! Department ! Foreign w Industrial produc- ! ployment j Freight car loadings store sales, trade, Wholesale prices tion | and pay rolls i value value Ne types l d e , al - 0 , s y 3 " * Merchan- m 1- 55 d & dise, 1.