Double Deterrence and International Mediation Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades der Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Georg-August-Universität vorgelegt von ANIL KOCAMAN geboren in Ankara, Türkei Göttingen, 2018 Erstbetreuer: Prof. h.c. Dr. Peter W. Schulze Weitere Betreuer: Prof. Dr. Walter Reese-Schäfer Prof. Dr. Anja Jetschke Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 27.09.2017 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Defining the Problem ........................................................................................................... 1 1.2 International Mediation ........................................................................................................ 4 1.3 Nuclear Deterrence .............................................................................................................. 6 1.3.1 Deterrence during the Cold War .................................................................................... 8 1.3.2 Nuclear Deterrence in the Post-Cold War.................................................................... 11 1.3.2.1 Pivotal Deterrence ................................................................................................ 13 1.3.2.2 Multilateral Deterrence ......................................................................................... 15 1.3.2.3 Collective Actor Deterrence ................................................................................. 16 1.4 Hypothesis .......................................................................................................................... 18 1.5 Variables ............................................................................................................................ 20 1.6 Research Questions ............................................................................................................ 20 1.7 RESEARCH DESIGN ....................................................................................................... 21 1.7.1 Case Selection .............................................................................................................. 21 1.7.2 The Dyadic Crises as Other Possible Cases ................................................................. 21 1.7.3 Evaluation of the Data.................................................................................................. 24 1.7.4 Criteria in Analyzing the Data ..................................................................................... 24 1.7.4.1 First Group of Cases: Nonnuclear Phase ............................................................. 24 1.7.4.1.1 Expectation 1 .................................................................................................... 24 1.7.4.1.2 Expectation 2 .................................................................................................... 25 1.7.4.1.3 Expectation 3 .................................................................................................... 25 1.7.4.2 Second Group of Cases: Nuclear Phase ............................................................... 25 1.7.4.2.1 Expectation 4 .................................................................................................... 25 1.7.4.2.2 Expectation 5 .................................................................................................... 26 1.7.4.2.3 Expectation 6 .................................................................................................... 26 2 METHODOLOGY..................................................................................................................... 28 i 2.1 First Group of Cases: Non-nuclear Phase ......................................................................... 28 2.1.1 India – Pakistan War of 1947 ....................................................................................... 28 2.1.1.1 Overview ............................................................................................................... 28 2.1.1.2 The US Mediation ................................................................................................. 32 2.1.1.3 The Soviet Mediation ........................................................................................... 33 2.1.1.4 The China’s Mediation ......................................................................................... 35 2.1.2 The Rann of Kutch Crisis............................................................................................. 39 2.1.2.1 Overview ............................................................................................................... 39 2.1.2.2 US Mediation of the Rann of Kutch Crisis ........................................................... 40 2.1.2.3 Soviet Mediation of the Rann of Kutch Crisis ...................................................... 42 2.1.2.4 Chinese Mediation of the Rann of Kutch Crisis ................................................... 42 2.1.3 The India-Pakistan War of 1965 .................................................................................. 44 2.1.3.1 Overview ............................................................................................................... 44 2.1.3.2 US Mediation of the India - Pakistan War of 1965 .............................................. 45 2.1.3.3 The Soviet Mediation of India – Pakistan War of 1965 ....................................... 49 2.1.3.4 The Chinese Mediation of Indian – Pakistan War of 1965 .................................. 53 2.1.4 India – Pakistan War of 1971 ....................................................................................... 57 2.1.4.1 Overview ............................................................................................................... 57 2.1.4.2 US Mediation of India – the Pakistan War of 1971 .............................................. 59 2.1.4.3 The Soviet Mediation of India – Pakistan War of 1971 ....................................... 61 2.1.4.4 Chinese Mediation of the India – Pakistan War of 1971 ...................................... 64 2.2 The Second Group of Cases: Nuclear Phase ..................................................................... 67 2.2.1 The Nuclearization of the Crisis .................................................................................. 67 2.2.2 The Crises at the Beginning of 1980s and Kahuta Crisis ............................................ 73 2.2.3 The Brasstacks Crisis ................................................................................................... 76 2.2.4 The 1990 Kashmir Crisis ............................................................................................. 82 2.2.4.1 Overview ............................................................................................................... 82 2.2.4.2 US Mediation of the 1990 Kashmir Crisis: .......................................................... 85 ii 2.2.4.3 The Soviet Mediation of 1990 Kashmir Crisis ..................................................... 88 2.2.4.4 Chinese Mediation of the 1990 Kashmir Crisis .................................................... 91 2.2.5 1999 Kargil War........................................................................................................... 92 2.2.5.1 Overview ............................................................................................................... 92 2.2.5.2 US Mediation of the 1999 Kargil War ................................................................. 94 2.2.5.3 Russian Mediation of 1999 Kargil War ................................................................ 97 2.2.5.4 Chinese Mediation of the 1999 Kargil War .......................................................... 98 2.2.6 Attacks on the Indian Parliament in 2001 and the Military Standoff ........................ 100 2.2.6.1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 100 2.2.6.2 US Mediation of the Crisis ................................................................................. 105 2.2.6.3 Russian Mediation of the Crisis .......................................................................... 108 2.2.6.4 Chinese Mediation of the Crisis ......................................................................... 114 2.2.7 Mumbai Terrorists Attacks in November 2008 ......................................................... 117 2.2.7.1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 117 2.2.7.2 US Mediation of the 2008 Mumbai Crisis .......................................................... 119 2.2.7.3 Russian Mediation of the 2008 Mumbai Crisis .................................................. 120 2.2.7.4 The Chinese Mediation of 2008 Mumbai Crisis................................................. 121 2.3 Complementary / Discussion Cases ................................................................................. 123 2.3.1 The Crises between India and China .......................................................................... 123 2.3.2 The Relations between the US, Russia, and China in the Post-Cold War Era ........... 129 2.3.2.1 The Competition in Balkans ............................................................................... 129 2.3.2.2 The Competition in Central Asia .......................................................................