City Research Online City, University of London Institutional Repository Citation: Harper, G. (2017). A study of the use of linked routinely collected administrative data at the local level to count and profile populations. (Unpublished Doctoral thesis, City, University of London) This is the accepted version of the paper. This version of the publication may differ from the final published version. Permanent repository link: https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/18244/ Link to published version: Copyright: City Research Online aims to make research outputs of City, University of London available to a wider audience. Copyright and Moral Rights remain with the author(s) and/or copyright holders. URLs from City Research Online may be freely distributed and linked to. Reuse: Copies of full items can be used for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge. 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City Research Online: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/ [email protected] A Study of the Use of Linked Routinely Collected Administrative Data at the Local Level to Count and Profile Populations by Gillian Harper A Dissertation Submitted to Cass Business School City, University of London in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics April 2017 1 Contents 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 11 1.1 Overview ............................................................................................................ 11 1.2 Papers ................................................................................................................. 14 1.2.1 Paper 1 – Using administrative Data to Count populations ................................. 14 1.2.2 Paper 2 - Applications of Population Counts Based on Administrative Data at Local Level ......................................................................................................................... 16 1.2.3 Paper 3 - Using Administrative Data to Count and Classify Households with Local Applications ....................................................................................................................... 17 1.2.4 Paper 4 - Impact of Asthma on Educational Attainment in a Socioeconomically Deprived Population: A Study Linking Health, Education and Social Care Datasets .......... 20 1.3 Individual contribution to the co-authored papers presented in the thesis .......... 21 1.3.1 Personal contribution to the work presented in chapter 2 .................................. 21 1.3.2 Personal contribution to the work presented in chapter 3 .................................. 23 1.3.3 Personal contribution to the work presented in chapter 4 .................................. 23 1.3.4 Personal contribution to the work in chapter 5 ................................................... 24 2 UsinG Administrative Data to Count Local Populations ................................................ 26 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 26 2.2 BackGround ......................................................................................................... 29 2.3 Data Sources ....................................................................................................... 32 2.4 MethodoloGy ...................................................................................................... 34 2.5 Residuals ............................................................................................................ 38 2.6 Evaluation of Results ........................................................................................... 40 2.7 MatchinG AlGorithms ........................................................................................... 41 2.7.1 Address Matching ................................................................................................. 42 2.7.2 Person Matching ................................................................................................... 43 2.8 A Worked Example .............................................................................................. 44 2.9 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 51 3 Applications of Population Counts Based on Administrative Data at Local Level .......... 56 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 56 3.2 Limitations of Official Population Statistics ......................................................... 58 3.2.1 Resource Allocation .............................................................................................. 58 3.2.2 Use as Denominators ............................................................................................ 59 3.2.3 Use in Delivery of Local Services ........................................................................... 61 3.2.4 Geography as a Barrier ......................................................................................... 62 3.2.5 Use of Administrative Data in Practice ................................................................. 64 3.3 Data Structures UsinG Administrative Data Sources ............................................. 66 3.4 Application Example ........................................................................................... 70 3.4.1 Background to Case Study .................................................................................... 70 3.4.2 Take-up Rates of Free Eye Tests Under the NHS .................................................. 74 3.4.3 Geographical Access to Free Eye Tests ................................................................. 75 3.4.4 Impact of Geographical Access on Take-up Rates ................................................ 77 3.4.5 Evaluation of an Alternative Service Configuration .............................................. 79 3.4.6 Implications for Resource Allocation .................................................................... 81 3.5 Discussion ........................................................................................................... 82 3.6 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 83 4 UsinG Administrative Data to Count and Classify Households with Local Applications . 86 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 86 4.1.1 Why Analyse Households? .................................................................................... 86 2 4.1.2 Present Arrangements and the Case for Change .................................................. 88 4.1.3 Aims of Paper ........................................................................................................ 91 4.2 CreatinG Household Statistics from Administrative Data ..................................... 92 4.2.1 Background to Demographic Counts .................................................................... 92 4.2.2 Alternative Household Classification Systems Using Administrative Data ........... 93 4.2.3 Enumerating Household Types ............................................................................. 95 4.2.4 Mapping Household Counts on to Standard Types .............................................. 98 4.2.5 Examples of Household Enumeration .................................................................. 99 4.3 A Case Study: Child Poverty in Hackney ............................................................. 102 4.3.1 Access to Children’s Centres in Hackney ............................................................ 107 4.4 Administrative Counts Versus Official Household Statistics ............................... 109 4.5 Comparison of Household Types UsinG Official FiGures ...................................... 114 4.6 Reasons for Differences Between Sources ......................................................... 117 4.7 Discussion ......................................................................................................... 118 4.8 Appendix 4.A - MeasurinG Statistical Quality of Population Estimation and Household Counts from Administrative Data Method ................................................... 120 5 Impact of Asthma on Educational Attainment in a Socioeconomically Deprived Population: A Study LinkinG Health, Education and Social Care Datasets ........................... 123 5.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 123 5.2 Methods ........................................................................................................... 124 5.2.1 Study participants ............................................................................................... 124 5.2.2 Outcome variables .............................................................................................. 124 5.2.3 Predictor variables .............................................................................................. 125 5.2.4 Data linkage .......................................................................................................