Pastoralism under Pressure: Vulnerability of Pastoral Nomads to Multiple Socio-political and Climate Stresses – The Shahsevan of Northwest Iran Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades (Dr. rer. nat.) der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn vorgelegt von Asghar Tahmasebi aus Tabriz/Iran Bonn 2012 Angefertigt mit Genehmigung der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn Gedruckt mit Unterstützung des Deutschen Akademischen Austauschdienstes (DAAD) 1. Referent: Prof.Dr. Eckart Ehlers 2. Referent: Prof.Dr. Winfried Schenk Tag der Promotion: June 25, 2012 Erscheinungsjahr: 2012 Table of Contents Table of Contents .............................................................................................................................. i List of maps ..................................................................................................................................... iv List of tables .................................................................................................................................... iv List of figures ................................................................................................................................... vi List of Persian words ....................................................................................................................... vii Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgment .............................................................................................................................. x Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... xi 1. Chapter one: Introduction ............................................................................ 1 1.1 Pastoral nomadism and multiple socio-political and climate stresses ............................ 2 1.2 Conceptualization of pastoral vulnerability ..................................................................... 6 1.3 Pastoralism and nomadism: a working definition ......................................................... 10 1.4 Aim and objectives of the study..................................................................................... 12 1.5 Research context: pastoral nomadism in Iran and the Shahsevan ................................ 14 1.6 Fieldwork, data problems and outline of thesis ............................................................ 21 2. Chapter two: Conceptual Frameworks ....................................................... 28 2.1 General remarks ............................................................................................................. 28 2.2 Definitions: choices and applications of relevant concepts .......................................... 30 2.3 Vulnerability: theoretical concepts and practical applications...................................... 36 2.4 Vulnerability in nomadic high mountain environments ................................................ 39 3. Chapter Three: Double exposure to socio-political and climate stresses .. 46 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 46 3.2 Exposure to political and socio-economic stresses ....................................................... 47 3.2.1 Legacies from the past and underlying root causes ................................................... 47 3.2.1.1 The Great Game and the seizure of Moghan pastures by Russia ............................ 48 3.2.1.2 Political change and modernization ......................................................................... 52 3.2.1.3 Land reform and nationalization of rangelands....................................................... 54 3.2.2 Contemporary dynamic pressures .............................................................................. 60 3.3 Exposure to climate stresses ......................................................................................... 72 3.3.1 Climate change and the Shahsevan ............................................................................ 73 3.3.2 Seasonality and temperature extremes ..................................................................... 80 3.3.3 Pastoral drought perception and its consequences ................................................... 83 3.4 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 90 4. Chapter four: Dynamics of vulnerability at community level .................... 93 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 93 4.2 Pastoral livelihoods strategies and means of living ....................................................... 95 4.3 Livelihood assets and access to resources ................................................................ 101 4.3.1 Natural capitals: pasture and farmland ..................................................................... 101 4.3.2 Financial capitals: income and savings ..................................................................... 111 4.3.3 Social capitals: networks and associations ............................................................... 119 4.3.4 Human capitals and labour ....................................................................................... 122 4.3.5 Physical capitals ........................................................................................................ 127 4.4 Access profile and adaptive capacity: a methodological approach ............................. 132 4.5 Sensitivity to multiple socio-political and climate stresses ......................................... 137 4.6 Conclusions: Adjusting vulnerability level by changing livelihood strategies .............. 139 5. Chapter five: Conclusion Nomadic survival strategies for adaptation to socio-political and climate stresses ... .143 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 143 5.2 Institutional structure, state adaptation policies and interventions ........................... 145 5.2.1 Improving rangeland conditions ............................................................................ 146 5.2.2 Improving the socio-economic conditions of pastoral nomads ............................ 150 Page | ii 5.2.3 Pastoral drought management.............................................................................. 151 5.3 Coping and adaptation strategies for nomadic survival .............................................. 155 5.3.1 Short-term adjustment and coping strategies ...................................................... 156 5.3.2 Long-term adaptation and transformation ........................................................... 160 5.4 Shahsevan pastoralism: scenarios for the future ..................................................... 162 Scenario 1: Business as usual ............................................................................................... 165 Scenario 2: Agro-pastoralism approach ............................................................................... 166 Scenario 3: Integrated pastoral development approach ..................................................... 167 5.5 Final remarks ............................................................................................................. 169 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 174 Page | iii List of maps Map 1 -1 The study location, the territory of Shahsevan pastoral nomads in northwest Iran ... 3 Map 1 -2 The Shahsevan traditional migration routes, yaylaq and qeshlaq ............................. 17 Map 1 -3 The Shahsevan winter camp sites on the satellite map of Dasht-e-Moghan. ............ 22 Map 3 -1 Comparative land use maps of Dasht-e-Moghan in 1970 and 2003. ......................... 57 List of tables Table 1 -1 Population of major tribal confederations in Iran ..................................................... 20 Table 1 -2 The names of participants’ tribes and qeshlaqs ........................................................ 25 Table 3 -1 The education level of household members by gender ............................................ 69 Table 3 -2 The access of Shahsevan students to schooling locations at different study levels . 69 Table 3 -3 The characteristics of climatology stations ............................................................... 75 Table 3 -4 Long-term trends in monthly mean temperature in the Shahsevan territory .......... 79 Table 3 -5 Long-term trends in monthly maximum temperature in the Shahsevan territory ... 79 Table 3 -6 Long-term trends in monthly minimum temperature in the Shahsevan territory .... 79 Table 3 -7 Long-term trends in absolute monthly maximum temperature in the Shahsevan territory ...................................................................................................................................... 79 Table 3 -8 Drought severity based on SPI values ........................................................................ 84 Table 3 -9 Comparing the 2009 winter pasture drought in Moghan