The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 INTRODUCTION TO THE FUTURES RESEARCH METHODS SERIES by Jerome C. Glenn Introduction I. Why Futures Methodology? II. What is Futures Research and Studies? III. Futures Research for Policy vs. Academic Future Studies IV. Ways of Organizing Methods V. Related Issues VI. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decision Making VII. Final Comment Appendix: Annotated Bibliography; Selections from Future Survey Appendix A: Many Methods and Mentors: Thinking About Change and Shaping Futures Appendix B: Futures Studies Methodology Endnotes The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 Acknowledgments Mika Aaltonen, Head and Chairman of the Board of StraX at Helsinki University of Technology has contributed a form of organizing and evaluating methods in Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 which was drawn from his paper “Evaluation and Organization of Futures Research Methodology – Version 3.0,” the full paper is in the appendix of the final chapter in this series. This chapter has also benefitted from helpful comments and insightful remarks provided by Olaf Helmer, retired futurist of the RAND Corporation; Joseph Coates, Joseph Coates Consulting Futurists, Washington, D.C.; Theodore J. Gordon, Senior Fellow of the Millennium Project; Professor Pentti Malaska, Finland Futures Academy; and Peter Bishop, director, Program for the Study of the Future, University of Houston. The two annotated bibliographies were prepared by Dr. Michael Marien, Editor of Future Survey with assistance from Lane Jennings and Janet Colacino. Elizabeth Florescu, Neda Zawahri, and Kawthar Nakayima provided excellent project support. Sheila Harty provided skillful editing while Andra Tautu and John Young proofread this chapter. Thanks to all for your contributions. Introduction ii The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 INTRODUCTION Each chapter in this series gives an executive overview of each method's history, a description of its primary and alternative usages, how to do it, strengths and weaknesses, use in combination with other methods, and speculation about future usage. Some also contain appendices with applications and sources for further information. Over half of these chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to its evolution. The chapters display a set of methodologies to help us understand the range of possible future worlds. Private corporations, non-governmental organizations, universities, governments, and international organizations use many of these methods in planning and policy activities. The first version of this series had 18 chapters and was written as part of the United Nations University’s Millennium Project Feasibility Study funded by the United Nations Development Program's (UNDP's) African Futures Project. African Future’s objective was to assist African countries to conduct national long-term prospective studies, and hence the methods series was produced to provide UNDP/African Futures with basic information on futures methods that could be used by National Long-Term Prospective Studies teams in African countries to develop their national plans. The Millennium Project became operational under the auspices of the American Council for the United Nations University in 1996 and additional funding to produce Version 2.0 was provided by the US Army Environmental Policy Institute. The Rockefeller Foundation funded the current Version 3.0 while the Millennium Project was under the auspices of the World Federation of United Nations Associations. Suggestions on improvements and/or additions to these chapters are welcomed and encouraged in anticipation of future editions of the series. I. WHY FUTURES METHODOLOGY? The forces of nature, social and political dynamics, scientific discovery, and technological innovation largely determine the future. However, as human capacity has evolved, our choices increasingly shape the future. The pace of technological and medical advancement was changed by President Kennedy's long-range goal of landing a man on the Moon. A sequence of technologies was invented to accomplish this goal, which in turn grew into satellite communication, better materials, and medical advances that changed our lives. The first photograph of whole Earth from space changed our perspective. Society cannot control the future, but it can influence the course of history. This influence makes worthwhile the effort to consider the balance between what we want and what is possible. The purpose of futures methodology is to systematically explore, create, and test both possible and desirable futures to improve decisions. It includes analysis of how those conditions might Introduction 1 The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 change as a result of the implementation of policies and actions, and the consequences of these policies and actions. Futures research can be directed to large- or small-scale issues, in the near or distant future; it can project possible or desired conditions. It is not a science;1 the outcome of studies depends on the methods used and the skills of the practitioners. Its methods can be highly quantitative or qualitative. It helps to provide a framework to better understand the present and expand mental horizons. Businesses use futures methods to enhance understanding of future markets. Social leaders use them to develop and test both possible and desirable future visions. Future visions can help generate long-term policies, strategies, and plans, which help bring desired and likely future circumstances into closer alignment. The use of futures methods enhances anticipatory consciousness, which in term improves the foresight to act faster or earlier, making the organization or individual more effective in dealing with change. The ability to anticipate gives extra time to better understand threats and opportunities, develop more creative strategies, create new product opportunities, and create and share vision for organizational change. The value of futures research is less in forecasting accuracy than in usefulness in planning and opening minds to consider new possibilities and changing the policy agenda. Its purpose is not to know the future but to help us make better decisions today via its methods that force us to anticipate opportunities and threats and consider how to address them––strategically it is better to anticipate, rather than just respond to change. It is not reasonable to ask people to cooperate in building a better tomorrow without a shared, multi-faceted, and compelling image of the future. How such images are created influences the quality of the future. For example, the early inhabitants of what is now Switzerland held traveling conversations among the various ethnic groups to reach a multi-faceted and multi-language state that has become synonymous with peaceful cooperation. Because many different kinds of people were involved in the construction of the Swiss future vision, a cross section of interests was represented and unrealistic views were modified.2 When people are not involved in the creative process, the absence of their views can lead to future problems. For example, indigenous Americans and African slaves were not part of the visioning team that created what became known as Manifest Destiny - the future vision of westward migration in the United States to create wealth. These two groups are still not well integrated into the affluent American society today. Positive visions untested by futures analysis can be destructive by leading people toward impossible goals or impossible schedules. For example, during the mid-20th century, many Africans believed that once decolonization was complete, peace and plenty were sure to follow - quickly. This positive vision proved unattainable. Forecasting studies might have identified factors that could frustrate the dream, thus illuminating policies, moderating expectations, and preventing the dashed hopes and cynicism that poisons the imagination of the next generation who might otherwise have built a better Africa.3 If no general agreement exists about an organization's or nation's future direction, then how can Introduction 2 The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 one know what is useful or useless? To what end would one cooperate? be efficient? Although, the application of futures methods to generate future visions will not eliminate conflict or competition, a people can have a shared future vision of economic competition toward a common goal. For example, corporations competed to get government contracts to help land a man on the moon. This competition gave coherence to research and development and created the greatest synergy in history between research in biology and physics. A lack of vision promotes aimlessness and apathy, which in turn erodes the human resource base and increases waste of all kinds. Intelligent visions provide the backdrop or criteria for deciding what is more likely to be useful or useless in the future. When driving a car slowly at night, the headlight illumination does not have to extend very far to drive safely, but when driving much faster, the headlights should shine farther down the road to give time to make the proper adjustments to drive more safely. Similarly, the faster the rate of change, the further into the future we should explore to make better decisions. The increasing complexity and acceleration of change decreases