ISSN 1178–2560 Decision Series Project no. 11.04/PRJ0043991 Public version Determination Cardrona Alpine Resort Limited and Treble Cone Investments Limited [2019] NZCC 24 The Commission: Anna Rawlings Dr John Small John Crawford Summary of An application from Cardrona Alpine Resort Limited seeking application: clearance to acquire up to 100% of the shares of Treble Cone Investments Limited or the assets it uses to operate the Treble Cone ski field. Determination: Under section 66(3)(a) of the Commerce Act 1986, the Commerce Commission gives clearance to the proposed acquisition. Date of determination: 13 December 2019 2 Confidential material in this report has been removed. Its location in the document is denoted by [ ]. 3 Contents CONTENTS ..................................................................................................................................3 THE PROPOSED ACQUISITION ......................................................................................................4 OUR DECISION ............................................................................................................................4 OUR FRAMEWORK ......................................................................................................................4 THE SUBSTANTIAL LESSENING OF COMPETITION TEST ................................................................ 4 WHEN A LESSENING OF COMPETITION IS SUBSTANTIAL .............................................................. 5 WHEN A SUBSTANTIAL LESSENING OF COMPETITION IS LIKELY ................................................... 5 THE CLEARANCE TEST .................................................................................................................... 5 THE PARTIES ...............................................................................................................................5 CARDRONA .................................................................................................................................... 5 TREBLE CONE ................................................................................................................................. 5 OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES ......................................................................................................... 6 INDUSTRY BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................6 PREVIOUS COMMISSION DECISIONS ............................................................................................7 WITH AND WITHOUT SCENARIOS ................................................................................................8 WITH THE ACQUISITION ................................................................................................................ 8 WITHOUT THE ACQUISITION ......................................................................................................... 8 Conclusion on the relevant counterfactual .......................................................................................... 9 MARKET DEFINITION ...................................................................................................................9 CARDRONA’S VIEW OF THE RELEVANT MARKET ........................................................................ 10 PRODUCT DIMENSION ................................................................................................................ 10 GEOGRAPHIC DIMENSION ........................................................................................................... 11 CUSTOMER DIMENSION .............................................................................................................. 12 CONCLUSION ON THE RELEVANT MARKETS ............................................................................... 13 HOW THE ACQUISITION COULD SUBSTANTIALLY LESSEN COMPETITION ..................................... 13 UNILATERAL EFFECTS - COMPETITION ANALYSIS ........................................................................ 14 CLOSENESS OF COMPETITION BETWEEN CARDRONA AND TREBLE CONE ................................. 14 CONSTRAINT FROM QUEENSTOWN SKI FIELDS .......................................................................... 15 CONSTRAINT FROM SKI FIELDS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION ............................ 16 ABILITY FOR THE MERGED ENTITY TO PRICE DISCRIMINATE AGAINST WANAKA LOCALS ......... 17 Ability and incentive for the merged entity to price discriminate ...................................................... 17 Conclusion on the ability and incentive to price discriminate against Wanaka locals ....................... 19 CONCLUSION – UNILATERAL EFFECTS IN THE SOUTHERN LAKES SKI MARKETS ......................... 19 COORDINATED EFFECTS - COMPETITION ANALYSIS .................................................................... 19 OVERALL CONCLUSION.............................................................................................................. 21 DETERMINATION ON NOTICE OF CLEARANCE............................................................................. 23 4 The proposed acquisition 1. On 5 September 2019, the Commerce Commission (the Commission) registered an application under section 66(1) of the Commerce Act 1986 (the Act) from Cardrona Alpine Resort Limited (Cardrona) seeking clearance to acquire up to 100% of the shares of Treble Cone Investments Limited or the assets that Treble Cone Investments Limited uses to operate the Treble Cone ski field located west of Wanaka (Treble Cone) (the Acquisition).1 2. Cardrona and Treble Cone operate commercial ski fields that offer a range of skiing- related services such as lift passes, lessons, and rental equipment as well as food and beverage services. They operate the only commercial ski fields near Wanaka. Aside from the Cardrona and Treble Cone ski fields, the closest ski fields to Wanaka are those owned by NZ Ski Limited (NZ Ski) – the Remarkables and Coronet Peak ski fields, near Queenstown. Our decision 3. The Commission gives clearance to the Acquisition as it is satisfied that the merger will not have, or would not be likely to have, the effect of substantially lessening competition in a market in New Zealand. Our framework 4. Our approach to analysing the competition effects of the merger is based on the principles set out in our Mergers and Acquisitions Guidelines (our guidelines). 2 The substantial lessening of competition test 5. As required by the Act, we assess mergers using the substantial lessening of competition test. 6. We determine whether a merger is likely to substantially lessen competition in a market by comparing the likely state of competition if the merger proceeds (the scenario with the merger, often referred to as the factual), with the likely state of competition if the merger does not proceed (the scenario without the merger, often referred to as the counterfactual). 3 7. A lessening of competition is generally the same as an increase in market power. Market power is the ability to raise price above the price that would exist in a competitive market (the ‘competitive price’), 4 or reduce non-price factors such as quality or service below competitive levels. 5 1 Throughout this document the terms Cardrona and Treble Cone are used to describe the ski fields operated by Cardona Alpine Resorts Limited and Treble Cone Investments Limited unless the context requires otherwise. 2 Commerce Commission, Mergers and Acquisitions Guidelines (July 2019). 3 Commerce Commission v Woolworths Limited (2008) 12 TCLR 194 (CA) at [63]. 4 Or below competitive levels in a merger between buyers. 5 Mergers and Acquisitions Guidelines above n2 at [2.21]. 5 When a lessening of competition is substantial 8. Only a lessening of competition that is substantial is prohibited. A lessening of competition will be substantial if it is real, of substance, or more than nominal. 6 Some courts have used the word ‘material’ to describe a lessening of competition that is substantial. 7 9. As set out in our guidelines, there is no bright line that separates a lessening of competition that is substantial from one which is not. What is substantial is a matter of judgement and depends on the facts of each case.8 Ultimately, we assess whether competition will be substantially lessened by asking whether consumers in the relevant market(s) are likely to be adversely affected in a material way. When a substantial lessening of competition is likely 10. A substantial lessening of competition is ‘likely’ if there is a real and substantial risk, or a real chance, that it will occur. This requires that a substantial lessening of competition is more than a possibility but does not mean that the effect needs to be more likely than not to occur. 9 The clearance test 11. We must clear a merger if we are satisfied that the merger would not be likely to substantially lessen competition in any market. 10 If we are not satisfied – including if we are left in doubt – we must decline to clear the merger. The parties Cardrona 12. Cardrona owns and operates the Cardrona ski field, located in the Southern Lakes region of the South Island and approximately a 20 minute drive from Wanaka and 50 minutes from Queenstown. Cardrona is part of the Wayfare Group Limited (Wayfare), which operates Real Journeys Limited and several other tourism-focused companies based in the lower South Island. Wayfare acquired Cardrona in 2013. 13. Cardrona offers a mix of beginner, intermediate and expert grade trails