Ethiopia: A Political Economy Analysis Jon Harald Sande Lie, Berouk Mesfin Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Publisher: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Copyright: © Norwegian Institute of International Affairs 2018 ISSN: 1894-650X The report has been commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Any views expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They should not be interpreted as reflecting the views, official policy or position of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. The text may not be printed in part or in full without the permission of the authors. Visiting address: C.J. Hambros plass 2d Address: P.O. Box 8159 Dep. NO-0033 Oslo, Norway Internet: www.nupi.no E-mail: [email protected] Tel: [+ 47] 22 99 40 00 Ethiopia: A political economy analysis Jon Harald Sande Lie, Berouk Mesfin Report Commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2018 Contents Maps of Ethiopia .................................................................................................................. V About the report .................................................................................................................. VII Authors ................................................................................................................................. VIII List of acronyms ................................................................................................................... IX Executive summary .............................................................................................................. XI 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 2. The developmental state – politics and economy .................................................... 3 A brief historical background ...................................................................................... 5 3. Political system and situation .................................................................................... 9 Overview of the formal political system ..................................................................... 9 Regions and federal entities ....................................................................................... 11 Political parties ............................................................................................................ 12 Governing democracy – elections and the ebb and flow of political space ............ 14 Civil society .................................................................................................................. 17 Media ............................................................................................................................ 18 Human rights ............................................................................................................... 18 4. The economy – structure, concerns and performance ............................................. 21 Transformation of the agricultural sector .................................................................. 22 The marginal role of the private sector ...................................................................... 23 Structure and performance of the economy .............................................................. 24 Poverty, inequality and development ........................................................................ 26 Women, poverty and access to land ........................................................................... 28 5. Regional foreign policy and relations to external actors ......................................... 29 Sudan ........................................................................................................................... 31 South Sudan ................................................................................................................ 32 Eritrea ........................................................................................................................... 32 Somalia and Somaliland ............................................................................................. 34 The European Union .................................................................................................... 35 The USA ........................................................................................................................ 35 China ............................................................................................................................. 36 The Arab States ............................................................................................................ 36 Concluding Remarks on Ethiopia’s Regional Foreign Policy ..................................... 37 6. Concluding remarks .................................................................................................... 39 7. Bibliography ................................................................................................................ 41 ##sett inn kart vi har sendt inn tidlig­ ere med tittel «horn of africa»## Maps of Ethiopia Political map 40° Al Qunfudhah 45° 50° HORN OF AFRICA SAUDI ARABIA Atbara Abhā Red Sea Najrān HORN Thamūd Alghiena A OF t Sala Sa'dah b Jīzān AFRICA Nile a r Shendi a Nakfa Mersa Gulbub Af'abet Jaza'ir'- Dahlak Farasān YEMEN Khartoum ERITREAArchipelago Saywūn Sebderat Mitsiwa'e Hajjah Kassala Asmara Şan'ā Shabwah Inghel Ma'rib 15 Teseney 15 ° Barentu Mersa Fatuma (Sanaa)' ° Al Hudaydah SUDAN Adi Quala 'Atāq Ash Shihr Wad Madani Omhajer Tio Dhamār Al Mukallā Gedaref Aksum Adigrat Himora Adwa Idi Ibb Al Baydā' T Balhāf ekez W Sinnar e Mek'ele Ta'izz B Ahwar h a i b t Singar e B D a i Shaykh 'Uthmān N N n Metema l d Debark' l u e M G i i G l l e r Assab w e e e Sek'ot'a a e N n Adan (Aden) a s Gonder d rd i a l l a e e b T'ana fu Serdo Obock Gulf of Aden Caluula y Hayk Weldiya DJIBOUTI Ed Damazin Bahir Dar Tadjoura Butyaalo A Djibouti b h Guba ay Bati s Boosaaso (Bl a Saylac u Dese w Dikhil e A Ali Sabin N Karin Bure i l Ceerigaabo Xaafuun Goha A e Kurmuk b ) a Debre Mark'os Gewané y Boorama Baki Berbera 10 10 ° Mendi ETHIOPIA ° Fiche Debre Birhan Dire Dawa Hargeysa Burco Qardho Gimbi Nek'emte Addis Ababa Harer Jijiga Bandarbeyla Gidami Hagere Hiywet Mojo Boor Kigille Dembi Dolo Nazret Laascaanood Garoowe Gambela Degeh Bur Gore Gil Agaro Eyl o W Hosa'ina Asela en Akobo z Jima A Yeki Xamure ko Awasa Ginir b Shewa Gimira o W Pibor Post a Werder Gaalkacyo Sodo Goba b K'ebri Dehar Yirga 'Alem e Omo G Imi P e Wabe Shebele ib Towot s War Galoh o Abaya t r Kibre r Sogata Arba Minch' Hayk Menguist o Shilabo Ch'amo Galadi Dhuusamarreeb SOUTH SUDAN Hayk Genale Negele Garadase Ferfer Hobyo Administrative Murle Dawa Filtu 5° Boundary 5° Kapoeta Ch'ew Bahir Beledweyne Todenyang Kusa Dolo Bay Xuddur Banya Mega SOMALIA Lokwa Ramu Buulobarde Lake Turkana Luug Ceeldheere Kangole (Lake Rudolf) Moyale Garbahaarrey Lodwar North Horr Takaba Baydhabo Buna El Wak Jawhar Moroto Loiyangalani Lokichar Baardheere UGANDA Wajir Webi Jubba Marka Muqdisho Laisamis (Mogadishu) Bu'aale Maralal KENYA Baraawe Habaswein Tororo Eldoret Jinja Archer's Post Jilib Kakamega Nyahururu Bilis Qooqaani Meru Jamaame National capital 0° Kisumu Nanyuki Town, village Lake Kericho Nakuru Nyeri Garissa Kismaayo Victoria Embu Airport Tilka Tana Buur Gaabo International boundary Musoma Nairobi Machakos Road Railroad L. Namanga Garsen Mwanza Natron Lamu INDIAN UNITED REPUBLIC OF Galana OCEAN The boundaries and names shown and the designations Moshi Malindi TANZANIA Voi used on this map do not imply official endorsement or Arusha acceptance by the United Nations. Shinyanga L. L. Kilifi Eyasi Manyara 0 100 200 300 km Final boundary between the Republic of Sudan and the P Mombasa Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. a n g 0 100 200 mi ani -5° Tanga 35° 40° 45° Map No. 4188 Rev. 5 UNITED NATIONS Department of Field Support March 2012 Cartographic Section V Horn of Africa, Map No. 4188 Rev.5, March 2012, UNITED NATIONS KART## ##SETT INNNYTT Administrative Regions of Ethiopia 31.000000 34.000000 37.000000 40.000000 43.000000 46.000000 Administrative regions Administrative Map provided courtesy of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 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