Ethnic Conflict and Political Mobilization in Bahrain and the Arab Gulf by Justin J. Gengler A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Political Science) in The University of Michigan 2011 Doctoral Committee: Professor Mark A. Tessler, chair Professor Juan R. Cole Professor Ronald F. Inglehart Professor Alexander D. Knysh Professor James D. Morrow To our carefree days in Arabia Felix ii Acknowledgements Even before my untimely departure from Yemen following the cancellation of the Fulbright program there, Mark Tessler had suggested Bahrain as an auspicious candidate for the sort of mass attitude study I hoped to conduct. And when it became clear after some 18 months of waiting and setback that the project would not be so easily done after all, he continued to offer encouragement and practical advice—to say nothing of his prompt submission of many a fellowship recommendation—that helped ultimately to see the thing through. Jim Morrow and Ron Inglehart patiently answered out-of-context methodological questions and, perhaps as often, more tedious inquiries about the finer points of prospectus- and dissertation-writing and procedure that could probably have been better directed elsewhere. Alexander Knysh and Juan Cole agreed to join the committee without ever having previously met me, offered helpful comments on draft chapters, and generally shared their insights into Yemeni, Bahraini, and Middle East politics, for all of which I am grateful. The newly-retired Michael Schechter has been for nearly a decade a constant mentor and friend. More recently, since I began working on the actual dissertation he has served the helpful purpose of motivator, with his periodic messages asking how many chapters I have still to write. His advice about the selection of appropriate fonts for this dissertation, on the other hand, was not solicited. David DiPasquale sensitized me to the need of recognizing the real-world policy implications of my work, and to the usefulness of the new social media as vehicles for information exchange and informed public debate. My beautiful wife Julia, whom I met in Yemen and later joined in Bahrain, was there to share the ups and downs of my Bahrain field research. Her companionship and persistent optimism helped lighten a process that was otherwise not rarely frustrating. She also provided the final bit of inspiration needed to put an end to this dissertation-writing once and for all, with the timely delivery of our first child, iii Maryam. Similar thanks are in order for my family, who despite not quite understanding my desire to spend years in Yemen and Bahrain, were nonetheless steady in their support, and in their much-appreciated willingness to temporarily adopt a cat and a lot of plants. My research in Bahrain was made possible only through the help of a multitude of dedicated, invaluable individuals most of whom, unfortunately, cannot be named here. First among these are my field interviewers, who braved the heat of summer, the suspicions and repeated rejections of their fellow citizens, and all for a bizarre survey being conducted by some guy from a university in Michigan. I hope they will take pride in the results of their considerable efforts presented herein. Special thanks go to N.Y. and Hussain, who bore more than their fair shares of this labor and, in the latter case, gave appreciated advice and assistance that went well beyond his role as interviewer. Also indispensable was the regular support of the Public Affairs Office at U.S. Embassy Manama, in particular that of David Edginton and, later, Rachel Graaf, who helped broker meetings with elusive Bahraini politicians. Finally, I thank the (now former) Bahrain Center for Studies and Research for its sponsorship of my Fulbright fellowship and its many trips to the immigration office to revalidate my entry visa. Yet my field research in Bahrain also could not have occurred without the preliminary aid of many excellent Arabic instructors at the Yemen Language Center in Sana‘a, or indeed without the country of Yemen more generally, home to the friendliest, funniest, and most welcoming people I know, never shy to strike up an unsolicited conversation with an odd- looking foreigner. I thank in particular the ever-entertaining ‘Abd al-Qaw ï al-Muqaddas ï and ‘Abd al-Kar ïm al-Akw ä, whose love for Arabic Monopoly and televised professional tennis, respectively, served to improve my language skills far more than did any classroom sessions. Numerous organizations provided the financial support to enable all of the above, contributions for which I express my sincere thanks. A Critical Language Fellowship from the U.S. State Department first brought me to the Middle East and showed me how bad my second-year college Arabic really was. For most of the next two years I was able to improve it through a Foreign Language and Area Studies (FLAS) Fellowship from the U.S. Department of Education, an IIE Fulbright Critical Language Enhancement Award, and a David L. Boren Graduate Fellowship. Additional funding for research in Yemen came from an Individual Fellowship from the University of Michigan’s International Institute, and a Graduate Student Research Grant from Rackham Graduate School. Support for my field research in Bahrain iv came from an IIE Fulbright Fellowship, which was extended three additional months; a second Rackham Graduate Student Research Grant; and a Thesis Grant from the Department of Political Science. A Boren Graduate Fellowship also enabled me to continue my Arabic instruction while in Bahrain. The University of Michigan afforded generous support, finally, while I worked to finish writing the dissertation, through a second Departmental Thesis Grant to cover the costs of some translation of completed surveys, and a One-Term Dissertation- Writing Fellowship from Rackham Graduate School. v contents Dedication ii Acknowledgements iii List of Tables vii List of Figures ix Chapter 1. An Introduction to Bahrain: The Dysfunctional Rentier State 1 2. A Theory of Ethnic-based Political Mobilization in the Arab Gulf 14 Rentier States 3. Ethnic Conflict in the Rentier State: The Case of Sunni-Shi‘i Relations 53 in Bahrain 4. Surveying Bahrain: A Practical and Methodological Preface 116 5. Rentier State Theory vs. Rentier State Reality: Economic Benefits 145 and Individual Political Behavior in Bahrain 6. Bahraini Exceptionalism or (Ethnic) Politics as Usual?: Sunni-Shi‘i 292 Conflict and Political Orientation in Iraq 7. Conclusion: Toward a New Arab Gulf Agenda 334 vi List of Tables 2.1. The Failed States Index among Arab Countries 18 2.2. The Failed States Index: Difference in Means between Gulf and Non-Gulf Arab States 18 2.7. Estimating the Effect of Gulf Residence on Political Interest by Ordered Probit 29 2.8. Estimating the Effect of Gulf Residence on Political Actions by Ordered Probit 30 2.9. Estimating the Effect of Gulf Residence on Political Deference by Ordered Probit 31 5.1. Individual Sector Employment, by Ethnicity 149 5.2. The Determinants of Public-Sector Employment, estimated two ways 152 5.4. The Determinants of Occupational Level in Bahrain’s Private Sector 160 5.7. The Determinants of Occupational Level in Bahrain’s Public Sector 163 5.8. The Determinants of Occupational Level in Bahrain’s Public Sector, Sensitivity 165 Analysis 5.9. The Determinants of Political Opinion and Action among Bahrainis, Predictions 173 5.11. Bahrainis’ Opinion of the Country’s Overall Political Situation, estimated three ways 177 5.22. Bahrainis’ Opinion of the Influence of Government Policy on Their Lives, 190 estimated three ways 5.32. Bahrainis’ Opinion of the Legitimacy of the 2006 Parliamentary Elections, 201 estimated three ways 5.40. Bahrainis’ Opinion of the Justifiability of Violating Human Rights, 211 estimated three ways 5.50. Bahrainis’ Trust in the Institution of the Prime Ministership, estimated three ways 222 5.58. Bahrainis’ Satisfaction with Overall Government Performance, estimated three ways 230 5.69. The Determinants of National Pride among Bahrainis, estimated three ways 240 5.73. The Determinants of Political Opinion among Bahrainis, Summary of Results 246 5.75. The Determinants of Individual Political Interest in Bahrain, estimated three ways 253 5.80. The Determinants of Local Political News Following in Bahrain, estimated three ways 258 5.86. The Determinants of Meeting Attendance/Petition Signing in Bahrain, 263 estimated three ways vii 5.94. The Determinants of Demonstration Participation in Bahrain, estimated three ways 272 5.103. The Determinants of Electoral Participation in Bahrain, estimated three ways 281 5.108. The Determinants of Political Action among Bahrainis, Summary of Results 286 6.3. The Determinants of Government Confidence among Iraqis, estimated by OLS 305 Regression 6.11. The Determinants of Iraqis’ Evaluations of Government Performance, estimated 313 by OLS 6.19. The Determinants of Iraqis’ Participation in Demonstrations, estimated by Probit 320 6.27. The Determinants of Political Action and Opinion in Iraq, Summary of Results 328 viii List of Figures 1.1. A Cartoon in the Government-Affiliated Akhb är al-Khal ïj Depicts the Nation’s 7 Sunnis Righting the Bahraini Ship Inundated by “the Deviant Denomination” 2.3. Fuel Rents per Capita and Democracy (from Ross 2008 ) 23 2.4. Fuel Rents and Democracy, excluding the Rentier States 24 2.5. Aggregate Levels of Political Interest in Nine Arab Countries 27 2.6. Political Interest in Gulf versus Non-Gulf Arab States 28 2.10. Predicted Probabilities of Political Deference among Gulf versus Non-Gulf Respondents 32 3.1. A photograph posted to a popular Shi‘a discussion forum depicts the “Massive 66 Popular Anti-Political Naturalization Rally” of January 30, 2009 3.2. Another photograph posted to the same forum shows protestors holding a banner 67 saying “NO to Naturalization: A Betrayal of the Nation” 3.3.