Tourism, the Millennium Development Goals and Climate Change in the South Pacific Islands Dr. Min Jiang¹ª, Prof. Terry DeLacy¹, Adjunct Prof. Steve Noakes² ¹ Centre for Tourism and Services Research, Victoria University, Melbourne ² Pacific Asia Tourism Pty Ltd/Griffith University ªCorresponding author: [email protected] Abstract: As the leading industry in most Pacific Island Countries (PICs), tourism plays an important role in the achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for Pacific people. Heavily dependent on climate and the environment, tourism is very vulnerable to risks and impacts rising from climate change. This vulnerability of tourism is worse for those remote and small island countries in the Pacific. The already occurring climate changes are hindering MDGs in the region by having negative impacts on tourism. Therefore, Pacific tourism needs to take adaptation measures to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience to climate change impacts. This paper discusses the interactions between tourism, the MDGs and climate change in South Pacific. Comparison of tourism intensity to indicators of standard of living for Small Island developing states show that tourism is a powerful agent of poverty alleviation. As a highly climate sensitive economic sector in a highly climate vulnerable region, Pacific tourism needs to adapt immediately to climate change impacts to build and increase resilience to fight against it. Therefore, more efforts are needed to fill in the knowledge gap of tourism adaptation to climate change from various disciplines and perspectives. Keyword: Tourism, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), climate change, South Pacific Introduction Tourism is a primary source of foreign exchange earnings in 46 out of 50 of the world’s Least Developed Countries (LDCs) (DeLacy, 2009). With its potential to lift people out of poverty through the employment and entrepreneurial opportunities it provides, the tourism sector has the potential to make a substantial contribution to the achievement of the UN’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (UNWTO, UNEP, and WMO, 2008). In the South Pacific, tourism is the largest export sector for most PICs and offers great opportunity for economic growth, employment and sustainable development (DeLacy, 2009). As a highly climate-sensitive economic sector, tourism and Pacific tourism in particular, is vulnerable to climate change impacts. According to climate change projections in the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), small islands states like those in South Pacific will confront risks from climate change such as sea level rise, warming weather and increases in number and intensity of tropical cyclones, which will impede the ability of the tourism sector to make a key contribution to achieve the MDGs in the region. Tourism demand may also be impacted due to global mitigation policies and “green” ethical concerns affecting long haul travel (DeLacy et al, 2007). This paper discusses the interactions between tourism, the MDGs and climate change in the South Pacific. Following the introduction, section two highlights the importance of tourism for South PICs to achieve the MDGs. Section three of the paper provides an overview of climate change in the region including climate change impacts that have already been witnessed as well as projected risks from future climate change related activity in the South Pacific Islands. Section four then discusses adaptation to climate change that the South Pacific tourism sector needs to make to contribute to the achievement of the MDGs and section five draws overall conclusions and implications. MDGs and Tourism in the Pacific The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) formulated as a result of the Millennium Declaration at the Millennium Summit in 2000 are the commitment of the world community to eliminating poverty and improving peoples’ lives. All Pacific island governments endorsed the MDGs in 2002. In 2004, the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) prepared the Pacific Islands Regional Millennium Development Goals Report in cooperation with the United Nations and the UN/CROP MDG Working Group. This report reviewed the state of development in the Pacific Islands against the MDGs and their associated indicators and targets. (SPC, 2004) The Pacific MDGs Report concluded that progress towards the MDGs in the Pacific has been slow and in some cases even a worsening of status with regard to certain indicators (SPC, 2004). Traditional Pacific societies embrace caring for and sharing with family and clan, and therefore extreme poverty such as starving children is generally absent from the Pacific Islands (Abbott and Pollard, 2004; SPC, 2004). However, evidence has shown that hardship and hunger is much more widespread than generally thought in the Pacific (SPC, 2004; Abbott and Pollard, 2004). As shown in the following table of the Human Development Index (HDI) of selected Pacific countries, most of them are low- and medium- HDI countries. Table 1: Human Development Index of Selected PICs Selected 1995 2000 2005 2007/ranking out 2007 GDP per Pacific Countries of 182 countries capita (PPP US$)/ranking out of 182 countries Cook Islands .. .. .. .. .. Fiji 0.743 0.747 0.762 0.741/108th 4,304/115th Kiribati .. .. .. .. .. Nauru .. .. .. .. .. Palau .. .. .. .. .. Papua New Guinea 0.532 0.544 0.530 0.541/148th 2,084/138th Samoa 0.740 0.765 0.785 0.771/94th 4,467/113th Solomon Islands .. .. 0.602 0.610/135th 1,725/145th Tonga .. .. 0.819 0.768/99th 3,748/120th Tuvalu .. .. .. .. .. Vanuatu .. .. 0.674 0.693/126th 3,666/122th Source from: UNDP, 2008; UNDP, 2009. According to ADB poverty and hardship studies in 13 PICs (including Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji Islands, Kiribati, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, the Marshall Islands, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu), the average incidence of basic needs poverty is around 25% for all countries for which data are available (Abbott and Pollard, 2004). It means that these households experience the inability to meet the costs of food and other basic needs and services essential for a minimum standard of living (Abbott and Pollard, 2004). Despite less prevalent hunger in the region, malnutrition is present and even increasing as shown in the following table of proportion of underweight children below five years of age in several PICs. Table 2: Proportion of underweight children below five years of age in several PICs Countries 2004 Pacific MDGs Report 2009 Human Development Report (%) (for 2007) (%) Fiji 15.0 (1994) 8.0 Kiribati 13.0 (1999) 13.0 PNG 24.9 (2000) 35.0 Vanuatu 12.1 (1996) 20.0 Source from: UNDP, 2009; SPC, 2004. As the largest export sector for most PICs (DeLacy, 2009), tourism has played a significant role in economic growth as well as human development in the region. Whilst a decade ago tourism in the region was dominated by Fiji and the two French territories, Tahiti and New Caledonia, the sector is now truly widespread in its economic impact and has led growth in several PICs (Everitt, 2009). The AusAID 2008 Pacific Economic Survey stated that several Pacific countries including Fiji, Vanuatu, Palau, Samoa and Cook Islands have shown they can deliver tourist-led growth, which have all sustained growth of 5% or more over the last five years in tourism arrivals (Figure 1) (AusAID, 2008). Tourism is almost half of GDP in Cook Islands and Palau, closer to 20 % in Vanuatu and 10%-15% in Samoa and Fiji (AusAID, 2008). Figure 1: Growth of visitor arrivals in several PICs Source from AusAID, 2008 AusAID research has investigated the link between tourism and development for small island states. The research findings as shown in the following figures reveal that tourism does alleviate poverty. Figure 2: The link between tourism intensity and prosperity for small island states Source from Levantis, 2008 Figure 3: The link between tourism intensity and human development for small island states Source from Levantis, 2008 The Pacific region is also home to 10 percent of the world’s Least Developed Countries (LDCs), with 5 of the 50 LDCs. They are: Kiribati, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. These countries are in a very vulnerable position on economic, environmental, social and institutional fronts (UNDP, 2006a). The following table indicates that Kiribati, Samoa and Vanuatu are heavily dependent on tourism while tourism is still a small-scale activity in Solomon Islands and Tuvalu. Table 3: Tourism development in 5 Pacific LDCs Pacific LDCs Tourism development Tourism acknowledged by the Kiribati Development Plan 2008-11 as one of the key economic priorities The Kiribati National Tourism Action Plan 2009-14 released in November 2009, which stated a number of key action items developed in MDGs Kiribati The vision for the Kiribati tourism industry 2009-14: “For tourism to become the largest and most sustainable economic sector driving employment, growth and the Kiribati economy” The tourism’s share of GDP currently about 20% The 2014 target for the tourism’s share of GDP: 40-50% Tourism acknowledged by the Strategy for the Development of Samoa 2008-2012 as one of key sectors led economic growth and employment creation and priority areas of economic policies Samoa The Samoa Tourism Development Plan 2009-2013 released in July 2009 The tourism’s share of GDP currently about 10% The 2013 target for the growth of visitor arrivals: 40% Tourism has remained a small-scale activity in Solomon