DYNAMICS OF VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN PAKISTAN: A CASE STUDY OF SELECTED DISTRICTS IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (2002-2013) Submitted By LAL BADSHAH Ph.D Scholar Supervised By PROF. DR. NIAZ MUHAMMAD DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR (2011-12) DYNAMICS OF VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN PAKISTAN: A CASE STUDY OF SELECTED DISTRICTS IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (2002-2013) SUBMITTED BY: LAL BADSHAH PhD Scholar SUPERVISOR: PROF. DR. NIAZ MUHAMMAD A dissertation submitted to the University of Peshawar in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN SOCIOLOGY DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR (2011-12) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Ambition for learning is unique to humans and quite a lot has the desire to pursue higher studies but only few get the opportunity to do so. That’s why, I am extremely thankful to Almighty Allah who bestowed me with opportunity, conducive environment for study, capacity, good health and teachers’ respect which finally resulted in the accomplishment of this dissertation. This research endeavor would not have been completed without the consistent support of my supervisor Prof. Dr. Niaz Muhammad, Chairman, Department of Sociology, who expertly guided me throughout the whole process virtually from start to end. I am especially thankful to him for his persistent supervision, guidance and cooperation. Despite his varied preoccupations, he always spared time to go through each and every word of my thesis. I have been deeply dependent on him during this whole research and it was his perpetual guidance and keen interest in my research that converted this task into reality. I would be remiss if I do not recognize those who encouraged and energized me every day to pursue my academic interests. I am really thankful to Mr. Abdul Hasan, Senior Scientific Officer, Pakistan Agriculture Research Council, Peshawar who proved a helping hand in the data analysis process and I frequently consulted him in the case of any problem encountered during the process of research. He always welcomed me with open heart despite his numerous engagements. I am especially thankful to Mr. Adnan Khan, my cousin, for helping me out in bivariate analysis of my data. I am indebted to Syed Haroon Shah, Ph.D. research scholar, who assisted me at every stage of this research work. I am also thankful to Mr. Rakhmin Gul Orakzai, i Manager Philip Morris International, who regularly advised me for early completion of my research work. Finally, I acknowledge the valuable ideas, healthy criticism, friendly discussion and probing questions of my colleagues, friends and well-wishers that resulted in the success of this academic pursuit. Lal Badshah ii ABSTRACT This study was conducted on identifying the “Dynamics of Voting Behaviour in Pakistan: A Case Study of Selected Districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (2002- 2013)”. It is a quantitative study aimed at knowing the dynamics of voting behaviour in the past three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013), with major purpose to see the changing trend in the mentioned elections. It was proceeded with 292 respondents who had cast vote in any of the target elections and they were asked through Likert scale questionnaire under purposive sampling technique. Originally, the sample size was 300 but none of women voted in sampled election in District Dir Upper due to conservative culture and consensus of all political parties not to let women cast their vote which reduced the sample size from 300 to 292. Major objectives of the study were to identify the association between social factors and voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; to see the relationship of political factors with voting behaviour; and to explore the association between propaganda factors and voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The study includes voting behaviour as dependent variable whereas independent variables include social factors, political factors and propaganda factors. Univariate and bivariate analyses were drawn. The study found a significant association of social factors such as family, biradari, feudalism, religion, political discussion at home among family members and personal interests with voting behaviour. However, ethnicity, social class and religious sects were not found in association with voting behaviour. The changing scenario was observed as the percentage of vote casting as personal decision increased with every successive election. Among social factors, family was identified as a major influencing factor of voting behaviour but its importance got diminished with each iii passing election and similarly the influence of biradari influence remained restricted to some areas. Religion was highly significant in election 2002 but lost its ground to other factors in the subsequent elections. The influence of landlordism was although slight but consistent in the sampled elections. The study also reveals that political factors such as party affiliation, performance evaluation, issues evaluation and party ideology were significantly associated with voting behaviour. Voting based on candidate affiliation was dropped while voting based on party affiliation increased in each successive election. Party leadership was non-significant in election 2002 and 2008 but came up as a significant factor in election 2013. Rest of the political factors remained consistent in influence in the sampled elections. Propaganda factors including public speeches by the politicians, news items in newspapers, TV talk shows and campaign on social media were significantly associated with the voting behaviour mainly in election 2013. However, door to door canvassing decreased in election 2013. Campaign on social media influenced none of the respondents in the elections 2002 and 2008, while it remained highly significant in election 2013. In addition, the study finds least women’s participation in the voting process. The study recommends that the local political leadership as well as Election Commission of Pakistan should come forward to actively launch an awareness- creating movement regarding the importance of vote in the sampled areas towards increasing the participation ratio of women’s voting. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS S. No. Title Page No. Acknowledgements ...................................................................................... i Abstract ......................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents .......................................................................................... v List of Tables ................................................................................................ x Chapter - 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................. 1 1.1 Background of the Study......................................................................... 1 1.1.1 History of Elections: A World Perspective ................................... 2 1.1.2 Elections in Pakistani Context ...................................................... 4 1.1.3 Pakistan Elections (2002-2013) .................................................... 5 1.1.3.1 Backdrop of the Elections 2002 .......................................... 5 1.1.3.2 A Glance at Elections 2002 ................................................ 6 1.1.3.3 Backdrop of the Elections 2008 .......................................... 9 1.1.3.4 An Overview of Elections 2008 ......................................... 9 1.1.3.5 A Sketch of Elections 2013 ................................................ 11 1.1.3.6 Elections-2013: The Latest Polls ........................................ 11 1.1.4 Electoral History of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ................................... 13 1.1.4.1 Pre-partition Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ................ 13 1.1.4.2 Post-Partition Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa .............. 16 1.1.4.3 Elections 2002-20013 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Sampled Elections) ............................................................................ 22 1.1.4.3.1 Background and Results of Elections 2002 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ............................................................ 22 1.1.4.3.2 Background and Results of Elections 2008 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ............................................................ 24 1.1.4.3.3 Backdrop of Elections 2013 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.. 26 v 1.1.4.3.4 Variation in Voters’ Choice in KP (Sampled Elections) .................................................................. 27 1.2 Statement of the Problem ........................................................................ 29 1.3 Significance of the Study ........................................................................ 30 1.4 Objectives of the Study ........................................................................... 31 1.5 Research Questions ................................................................................. 32 1.6 Theoretical Framework ........................................................................... 32 1.7 Conceptual Framework ........................................................................... 33 1.8 Organization of the Chapters .................................................................. 33 Chapter - 2 REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ...................................... 35 2.1 Social Dynamics of Voting Behaviour ................................................... 36 2.1.1 Family as Determinants of Voting Behavior ................................ 37 2.1.2 Biradari and Voting Behaviour ..................................................... 39 2.1.3 Religion