Draft 2015 City of Goleta Coastal Hazards Vulnerability Assessment and Fiscal Impact Report Prepared by: City of Goleta 130 Cremona Drive, Suite B Goleta, California 93117 With Assistance from: Revell Coastal 125 Pearl Street Santa Cruz, CA 95060 November 2015 This page intentionally left blank. Contents Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................ES -1 1. Planning Background ............................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 Location............................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.3 Existing Conditions ........................................................................................................... 1-2 1.4 Planning Sub-Areas .......................................................................................................... 1-3 1.5 Goleta Local Coastal Program .......................................................................................... 1-4 1.6 The Planning Process ....................................................................................................... 1-4 1.7 2015 California Coastal Commission Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance.............................. 1-5 2. Physical Setting .................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Geology ............................................................................................................................ 2-1 2.2 Geomorphology ............................................................................................................... 2-1 2.3 Cliff Erosion Rates ............................................................................................................ 2-2 2.4 Shoreline Change Rates ................................................................................................... 2-3 2.5 Human Alterations to the Shoreline ................................................................................ 2-3 3. Climate Science .................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Climate Cycles .................................................................................................................. 3-1 3.2 Climate Change ................................................................................................................ 3-1 3.3 Climate-induced Impacts ................................................................................................. 3-2 3.4 Future Climate Projections: Scientific Overview ............................................................. 3-6 3.5 Other Regional Scientific Initiatives ................................................................................. 3-6 3.6 Coastal Hazards ................................................................................................................ 83- 4. Vulnerabilities and Fiscal Impacts by Sector .......................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Vulnerability Assessment Methodology .......................................................................... 4-1 4.3 Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis Methodology ........................................................ 4-4 4.4 Sector Profile Results ....................................................................................................... 4-8 5. Adaptation Strategies by Sector ............................................................................................ 5-1 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Adaptation Planning ........................................................................................................ 5-1 5.3 Maladaptation ................................................................................................................. 5-2 5.4 Challenges ........................................................................................................................ 5-3 Draft 2015 City of Goleta Coastal Hazards November 2015 i Vulnerability Assessment and Fiscal Impact Report Contents 5.5 Secondary Impacts ........................................................................................................... 5-3 5.6 Protect, Accommodate, and Retreat ............................................................................... 5-4 5.7 Sector Profile Results ....................................................................................................... 5-5 6. Implementation .................................................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 Planning Implementation ................................................................................................ 6-1 6.2 Financing Implementation ............................................................................................... 6-2 7. Policy and Regulatory Recommendations ............................................................................. 7-1 7.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 7-1 7.2 Minimize Coastal Hazards through Planning and Development Standards .................... 7-1 7.3 Maximize Protection of Public Access, Recreation, and Sensitive Coastal Resources ......................................................................................................................... 7-4 7.4 Maximize Agency Coordination and Public Participation ................................................ 7-5 8. Monitoring ........................................................................................................................... 8-1 8.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 8-1 8.2 Optional Studies ............................................................................................................... 8-1 9. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 9-1 10. Preparers ............................................................................................................................ 10-1 11. Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................. 11-1 12. References .......................................................................................................................... 12-1 Appendix A. Sector Profile Results Draft 2015 City of Goleta Coastal Hazards November 2015 ii Vulnerability Assessment and Fiscal Impact Report Figures Page Figure 1-1 City of Goleta Overview ..................................................................................... follows 1-2 Figure 1-2 California Coastal Commission Guidance for Including Sea Level Rise into Local Coastal Programs .................................................................................................... 1-4 Figure 3-1 Projected Temperature Changes in Goleta ..................................................................... 3-2 Figure 3-2 Projected Extreme Heat and Duration of Heat Waves .................................................... 3-3 Figure 3-3 Precipitation and Wildfire ................................................................................................ 3-4 Figure 3-4 Tide Record and Sea Level Rise Trend from the Santa Barbara Tide Gage...................... 3-5 Figure 3-5 Existing FEMA 100 Year Flood Hazard .............................................................. follows 3-10 Figure 4-1 Existing and Future Coastal Hazards ................................................................... follows 4-2 Figure 4-2 Flood and Erosion Hazard Zones......................................................................... follows 4-4 Figure 5-1 Implementation Timeline and Sea Level Rise Accommodation ...................................... 5-2 Draft 2015 City of Goleta Coastal Hazards November 2015 iii Vulnerability Assessment and Fiscal Impact Report Tables Page Table 1-1 Sea Level Rise Scenarios by Planning Horizon without Vertical Land Motion ................. 1-6 Table 3-1 Goleta Specific Values, Including 1.6 Millimeters per year Uplift along Ellwood Mesa ................................................................................................................... 3-5 Table 3-2 Goleta Specific Values, Including 1.5 Millimeter per Year Subsidence at Devereux and Goleta Slough ........................................................................................... 3-6 Table 3-3 Base Flood Elevations from the FEMA Maps for Creeks in Goleta City Limits .............. 3-10 Table 4-1 Fiscal Impact Analysis Metrics ......................................................................................... 4-5 Table 4-2 Estimated Adaptation Costs ...........................................................................................