ADAPTIVE INFRASTRUCTURE REGULATION: DESIGNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE by Andrew Higgins LL.B., The University of Melbourne, 2011 B.Eng. (Civil), The University of Melbourne, 2011 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF LAWS in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Law) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) November 2015 © Andrew Higgins, 2015 Abstract Climate change represents a vexing challenge for infrastructure design. There is increasingly widespread acknowledgement that design practices need to change in order to ensure that structures built today can withstand changes in average climate conditions, growing climate variability, and more frequent and extreme weather events over the coming decades. Yet substantial uncertainty persists with respect to the specific future conditions that structures should be designed for, leading to regulatory paralysis: despite the need for urgent action, regulation continues to require that infrastructure design be based on the assumption that past climate will be representative of future climate. This thesis argues that, in the face of this bedevilling combination of urgency and uncertainty, government regulation will be required to generate the changes in design practices needed to ensure that structures designed today will be resilient and robust to the climate impacts they are likely to confront over their lifetimes. Using the example of the National Building Code of Canada, this thesis identifies several stress points in existing regulatory frameworks for infrastructure design. In particular, this thesis demonstrates that existing methods for dealing with uncertainty in infrastructure design regulation are likely to be overwhelmed by the deep uncertainties surrounding climate change, and that the poor adaptive capacity of existing frameworks renders them unable to keep pace with the increasingly rapid pace of change. Responding appropriately and proactively to these challenges demands a new regulatory paradigm. This regulatory paradigm should draw guidance from new governance theory in the legal scholarship, as well as a range of ‘adaptive’ approaches developed in other disciplines — adaptive management, adaptive governance, and adaptive policymaking. The core of a new, adaptive regulatory paradigm should be a structured, iterative ii regulatory process that is capable of responding quickly and appropriately to new knowledge and unfolding realities, and formal and informal, multi-level networks that foster learning, cooperation, collaboration, and innovation. Without such a paradigm shift, the existing regulatory paradigm will fall into crisis, rendering structures designed today vulnerable to failure in the face of tomorrow’s climate, and thereby compromising substantial infrastructure investments and increasing risks to public safety. iii Preface This dissertation is original, unpublished, independent work by the author, Andrew Higgins. iv Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... ii Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ...........................................................................................................................v List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... vii List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................. viii Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................1 1.1 Research question .............................................................................................................. 4 1.2 How does this thesis understand ‘regulation’? .................................................................. 9 1.3 Why does this thesis focus on government regulation? ................................................... 16 1.4 Thesis overview ............................................................................................................... 25 Chapter 2: Literature review ......................................................................................................28 2.1 Regulatory paradigms ...................................................................................................... 31 2.2 New governance ............................................................................................................... 36 2.3 The ‘adaptives’ ................................................................................................................. 51 2.3.1 Adaptive management .............................................................................................. 52 2.3.2 Adaptive governance ................................................................................................ 61 2.3.3 Adaptive policymaking ............................................................................................. 66 2.4 Guiding principles for the development of a new regulatory paradigm .......................... 73 v Chapter 3: Why the existing regulatory paradigm is in crisis .................................................77 3.1 Stress point #1: A fragmented regulatory structure that restricts the development of local adaptation measures .................................................................................................................. 82 3.2 Stress point #2: Poor adaptive capacity ........................................................................... 88 3.3 Stress point #3: Ill-equipped to handle the uncertainties posed by climate change ......... 93 3.4 Stress point #4: Poor at facilitating innovation, sharing, learning and collaboration .... 101 3.5 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 106 Chapter 4: Constructing a new, adaptive regulatory paradigm ...........................................107 4.1 Developing an adaptive regulatory framework .............................................................. 112 4.1.1 A structured approach: designing regulation that is flexible but not formless ....... 114 4.1.2 Getting the right objectives to guide regulatory adjustments ................................. 123 4.1.3 Getting the right information to support regulatory adjustments ............................ 126 4.1.4 Getting the right level and timing of public and stakeholder participation ............ 130 4.1.5 Providing the resources, legislative support and incentives for success ................. 133 4.2 Creating networks that encourage learning, sharing and collaboration ......................... 136 4.3 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 142 Chapter 5: Conclusion ...............................................................................................................144 Bibliography ...............................................................................................................................153 vi List of Tables Table 1.1 Axes of adaptation actions ............................................................................................ 17 vii List of Abbreviations BCBC British Columbia Building Code CCBFC Canadian Commission on Building and Fire Codes IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NBCC National Building Code of Canada viii Acknowledgements I offer my enduring gratitude to the faculty, staff and students at the Allard Hall for making the faculty a welcoming, enjoyable, and intellectually stimulating place to be. Particular thanks go to my supervisor, Professor Natasha Affolder, and my second reader, Professor Robert K. Paterson, for their invaluable guidance in developing this thesis, and to Joanne Chung, the Graduate Program Advisor, for her constant encouragement and support. I would also like to thank my friends and family who have supported me over the last 14 months. Last but most certainly not least, my deepest thanks go to Sophie, for her constant love, guidance and support. ix Chapter 1: Introduction Despite near universal acknowledgement that infrastructure1 needs to be designed for future climate,2 regulation continues to require structures to be designed and built in accordance with climate values based on historic climate patterns. Engineers Canada3 recently released a model guideline setting out principles that should guide professional engineering in initiating climate change adaptation actions, which states that: [t]he climate is changing. Historical climatic design data is becoming less representative of the future climate. Many future climate risks may be significantly under-estimated. The engineer cannot assume that the future will be similar to the past. Historical climate trends cannot be simply projected into the future as a basis for engineering work.4 Yet the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC), while acknowledging that “many buildings will need to be designed, maintained and operated to adequately withstand ever changing