USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study Fisheries Report February 2014 This publication was produced for submission to the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared for USAID Mekong ARCC by ICEM and DAI. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of ICEM and DAI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Government. USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study Fisheries Report Program Title: USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (USAID Mekong ARCC) Sponsoring USAID Office: USAID/Asia Regional Environment Office Contract Number: AID-486-C-11-00004 Contractor: DAI Date of Publication: February 2014 This publication has been made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM) and Development Alternatives Inc. (DAI) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. USAID MEKONG ARCC CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND ADAPTATION STUDY Citation: ICEM (2013) USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation on Fisheries. Prepared for the United States Agency for International Development by ICEM - International Centre for Environmental Management Study team: Jeremy Carew-Reid (Team Leader), Tarek Ketelsen (Modeling Theme Leader), Jorma Koponen, Mai Ky Vinh, Simon Tilleard, Toan To Quang, Olivier Joffre (Agriculture Theme Leader), Dang Kieu Nhan, Bun Chantrea, Rick Gregory (Fisheries Theme Leader), Meng Monyrak, Narong Veeravaitaya, Truong Hoanh Minh, Peter-John Meynell (Natural Systems Theme Leader), Sansanee Choowaew, Nguyen Huu Thien, Thomas Weaver (Livestock Theme Leader), John Sawdon (Socio-economics Theme Leader),Try Thuon, Sengmanichanh Somchanmavong, and Paul Wyrwoll The USAID Mekong ARCC project is a five- year program (2011-2016) funded by the USAID Regional Development Mission for Asia (RDMA) in Bangkok. The larger project focuses on identifying the environmental, economic, and social effects of climate change in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), and on assisting highly exposed and vulnerable rural populations in ecologically sensitive areas adapt to climate change impacts on agricultural, fisheries, livestock, ecosystems, and livelihood options. This phase of the project was led and implemented by ICEM, and focuses specifically on predicting the responses of the key livelihood sectors – agriculture, livestock, fisheries, rural infrastructure and health, and natural systems – to the impacts associated with climate change, and offering broad-ranging adaptation strategies to the predicted responses. This volume is part of the USAID Mekong ARCC study set of reports: 1. USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study: Summary 2. USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study: Main Report 3. USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study on Agriculture 4. USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study on Livestock 5. USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study on Fisheries 6. USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study on Non Timber Forest Products and Crop Wild Relatives 7. USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study on Protected Areas 8. USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study: Socio-economic Assessment ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The study team wishes to give a special thanks to Brad Phillips, USAID/RDMA’s former Climate Change Adaptation Advisor, for his vision in recognizing the need for this study and for providing excellent technical guidance and suggestions throughout. The team also specially recognizes the strong support of the USAID Mekong ARCC team who provided regular technical inputs as well as continuing management and communications support: Paul Hartman (Chief of Party), Christy Owen (former Deputy Chief of Party), Sumalee Santadkornkarn (Senior Administrator), Saowalak Jingjungvisut (Communications Specialist), and Shelley Gustafson (Scientific Editor). Two regional workshops were undertaken as part of the study and the team would like to thank the close to 200 participants for extensive contributions. They included technical representatives from the four Lower Mekong Basin governments and many national and international organizations and individuals working in the fields of climate change, agriculture, livestock, fisheries, natural systems and socio- economics. Special thanks to the Mekong River Commission Secretariat for a number of technical round table discussions and consultations and provision of important data and advice, especially staff of the Environment Program and Climate Change Adaptation Initiative. And finally, the team extends its thanks to the formal technical reviewers who attended team working sessions or provided detailed reviews of the draft Main Report and individual theme reports including: Rod LeFroy (International Centre for Tropical Agriculture -CIAT), Caitlin Corner-Dolloff (CIAT- Vietnam), Colin Khoury (CIAT), Steve Staal (International Livestock Research Institute - ILRI), Fred Unger (ILRI), Okeyo Mwai (ILRI), Jo Cadilhon (ILRI), Derek Bacher (ILRI), Delia Grace (ILRI), Joachim Otte (Food and Agriculture Organization Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific), Robert Mather (International Union for the Conservation of Nature), Benjamin Samson (International Rice Research Institute - IRRI), Reiner Wassmann (IRRI), Kasina Limsamarnphun (Oxfam), Simon Funge-Smith (Food and Agriculture Organization), Caspar Ammann (National Centre for Atmospheric Research), Apanie Wood (ICEM) and Beau Damen (ICEM). TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 SECTION 1 – FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE BASELINE ......................................... 3 1 CAPTURE FISHERIES OVERVIEW................................................................................ 4 1.1 CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS TO CAPTURE FISHERIES ................................................. 6 1.1.1 Increased Temperatures ..................................................................................................................6 1.1.2 Changes in Rainfall .............................................................................................................................7 1.1.3 Increased CO2 Levels ........................................................................................................................7 1.1.4 Increased Sea Levels ..........................................................................................................................7 1.1.5 Storm Intensity and Frequency .......................................................................................................7 1.1.6 Other Threats to Capture Fisheries .............................................................................................7 2 AQUACULTURE OVERVIEW ........................................................................................ 9 2.1 CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS TO AQUACULTURE ...................................................... 10 2.1.1 Increased Temperatures ............................................................................................................... 10 2.1.2 Changes in Rainfall Patterns ......................................................................................................... 11 2.1.3 Storm Intensity and Frequency .................................................................................................... 11 2.1.4 Increased Carbon Dioxide ........................................................................................................... 11 2.1.5 Increased Sea Levels ....................................................................................................................... 11 3 THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN ECOZONES ............................................................. 12 3.1 HIGH ELEVATION MOIST BROADLEAF FOREST (ANNAMITES) ................................... 12 3.2 HIGH-ELEVATION MOIST BROADLEAF FOREST (NORTH INDOCHINA) ..................... 15 3.2.1 Important Fishing Areas and Habitats ........................................................................................ 15 3.2.2 Important Species (Economic and Food Security) .................................................................. 16 3.2.3 Fishing Systems (Commercial and Small Scale) ........................................................................ 16 3.2.4 Tolerences and Life Cycle Conditions....................................................................................... 17 3.2.5 Trends, Threats, and Opportunities .......................................................................................... 17 3.3 MID-ELEVATION DRY BROADLEAF FOREST ................................................................ 18 3.3.1 Important Fishing Areas and Habitats ........................................................................................ 19 3.3.2 Important Species (Economic and Food Security) .................................................................. 19 3.3.3 Fishing Systems (Commercial and Small Scale) ........................................................................ 19 3.3.4 Tolerances and Life Cycle Conditions ....................................................................................... 20 3.3.5 Trends,