energy [r]evolution A SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL ENERGY OUTLOOK © LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP EUROPEAN RENEWABLE © GP/STEVE MORGAN © GP/STEVE ENERGY COUNCIL © GREENPEACE/XUAN CANXIONG © GREENPEACE/XUAN report global energy scenario Greenpeace International, EREC Oliver Schäfer, research & co-authors DLR, European Renewable Arthouros Zervos, Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Energy Council (EREC) Department of Systems Analysis and Greenpeace International Technology Assessment, Stuttgart, date October 2008 Sven Teske, Jan Béranek, Germany: Dr. Wolfram Krewitt, Dr. Stephanie Tunmore isbn 9789073361898 Sonja Simon, Dr. Thomas Pregger. contact [email protected], DLR, Institute of Vehicle Concepts, project manager & lead author [email protected] Stuttgart, Germany: Dr. Stephan partners Sven Teske, Greenpeace International Schmid Ecofys BV, Utrecht, The editor Crispin Aubrey Netherlands: Wina Graus, Eliane Blomen. image A LOCAL TIBETAN WOMAN WHO HAS FIVE CHILDREN AND RUNS A BUSY GUEST HOUSE IN THE VILLAGE OF ZHANG ZONG USES SOLAR PANELS TO SUPPLY ENERGY FOR HER BUSINESS. cover image A MAINTENANCE ENGINEER INSPECTS A WIND TURBINE AT THE NAN WIND FARM IN NAN’AO. GUANGDONG PROVINCE HAS ONE OF THE BEST WIND RESOURCES IN CHINA AND IS ALREADY HOME TO SEVERAL INDUSTRIAL SCALE WIND FARMS. 2 “will we look into the eyes of our children and confess that we had the opportunity, but lacked the courage? that we had the technology, but lacked the vision?” © GREENPEACE/JOHN NOVIS regional partners: OECD North Transition Economies Valdimir Other Dev. Asia ISEP-Institute Tokyo: OECD Pacific ISEP-Institute Tokyo, America Sunna Institute: Janet Tchouprov Africa & Middle East Mika Ohbayashi, Hironao Matsubara Japan: Mika Ohbayashi; Dialog Sawin, Freyr Sverrisson; GP USA: Reference Project: “Trans-Mediterranean Tetsunari Iida; GP South East Asia: Institute, Wellington, New Zealand: Chris Miller, John Coequyt, Kert Davis. Interconnection for Concentrating Jaspar Inventor, Tara Buakamsri. Murray Ellis; GP Australia Pacific: Latin America Universidad de Chile, Solar Power” 2006, Dr. Franz Trieb; China Prof. Zhang Xilian, University Julien Vincent. Luis Vargas; GP Brazil: Marcelo GP Mediterranean: Nili Grossmann. Tsinghua, Beijing; GP China: Ailun printing www.primaveraquint.nl Furtado, Ricardo J. Fujii. OECD India Rangan Banerjee, Bangalore, Yang, Liu Shuang. Europe/EU27 EREC: Oliver Schäfer, India; GP India: Srinivas Kumar, Vinuta design & layout Jens Christiansen, Arthouros Zervos Gopal, Soumyabrata Rahut. Tania Dunster, www.onehemisphere.se for further information about the global, regional and national scenarios please visit the energy [r]evolution website: www.energyblueprint.info/ Published by Greenpeace International and EREC. Printed on 100% post consumer recycled chlorine-free paper. 3 foreword Of all the sectors of a foremost, of course, are modern economic system, the growing uncertainties the one that appears to be related to oil imports both getting the maximum in respect of quantities and attention currently is the prices, but there are several energy sector. While the other factors that require a recent increase in oil prices totally new approach to certainly requires some planning energy supply and temporary measures to tide consumption in the future. over the problem of Perhaps, the most crucial increasing costs of oil of these considerations is consumption particularly the threat of global climate for oil importing countries, change which has been there are several reasons caused overwhelmingly in why the focus must now recent decades by human shift towards longer term actions that have resulted solutions. First and in the build up of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the Earth’s atmosphere. foreword 4 1 climate protection 15 4 the energy [r]evolution 28 introduction 6 executive summary 9 2 implementing the 5 scenarios for a future energy [r]evolution in energy supply 37 developing countries 19 6 key results of the global 3 nuclear threats 23 energy [r]evolution contents scenario 53 image CHECKING THE SOLAR PANELS ON TOP OF THE GREENPEACE POSITIVE ENERGY TRUCK IN BRAZIL. 4 Impacts of climate change are diverse and serious, and unless the Future policies can be guided by the consideration of different emissions of GHGs are effectively mitigated these would threaten to scenarios that can be linked to specific developments. This publication become far more serious over time. There is now, therefore, a renewed advocates the need for something in the nature of an energy interest in renewable sources of energy, because by creating and using revolution. This is a view that is now shared by several people across low carbon substitutes to fossil fuels, we may be able to reduce emissions the world, and it is also expected that energy plans would be based on of GHGs significantly while at the same time ensuring economic growth a clear assessment of specific scenarios related to clearly identified and development and the enhancement of human welfare across the policy initiatives and technological developments. This edition of world. As it happens, there are major disparities in the levels of Energy [R]evolution Scenarios provides a detailed analysis of the consumption of energy across the world, with some countries using large energy efficiency potential and choices in the transport sector. The quantities per capita and others being deprived of any sources of modern material presented in this publication provides a useful basis for energy forms. Solutions in the future would, therefore, also have to come considering specific policies and developments that would be of value to grips with the reality of lack of access to modern forms of energy for not only to the world but for different countries as they attempt to hundreds of millions of people. For instance, there are 1.6 billion people meet the global challenge confronting them. The work carried out in in the world who have no access to electricity. Households, in which these the following pages is comprehensive and rigorous, and even those people reside, therefore, lack a single electric bulb for lighting purposes, who may not agree with the analysis presented would, perhaps, benefit and whatever substitutes they use provide inadequate lighting and from a deep study of the underlying assumptions that are linked with environmental pollution, since these include inefficient lighting devices specific energy scenarios for the future. using various types of oil or the burning of candles. Dr. R. K. Pachauri DIRECTOR-GENERAL, THE ENERGY AND RESOURCES INSTITUTE (TERI) AND CHAIRMAN, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) OCTOBER 2008 © GREENPEACE/FLAVIO CANNALONGA © GREENPEACE/FLAVIO 7 futu[r]e investment 100 10 energy efficiency 13 policy – more with less 143 recommendations 183 energy resources 8 transport 160 glossary & appendix 188 & security of supply 109 11 14 cars of the future 174 9 energy technologies 132 12 5 GLOBAL ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL ENERGY OUTLOOK introduction “NOW IS THE TIME TO COMMIT TO A TRULY SECURE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE – A FUTURE BUILT ON CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND THE CREATION OF MILLIONS OF NEW JOBS.” © GREENPEACE/MARKEL REDONDO image WORKERS EXAMINE PARABOLIC TROUGH COLLECTORS IN THE PS10 CONCENTRATING SOLAR TOWER PLANT IN SEVILLA, SPAIN. EACH PARABOLIC TROUGH HAS A LENGTH OF 150 METERS AND CONCENTRATES SOLAR RADIATION INTO A HEAT-ABSORBING PIPE INSIDE WHICH A HEAT-BEARING FLUID FLOWS. THE HEATED FLUID IS THEN USED TO HEAT STEAM IN A STANDARD TURBINE GENERATOR. Energy supply has become a subject of major universal concern. An overwhelming consensus of scientific opinion now agrees that High and volatile oil and gas prices, threats to a secure and stable climate change is happening, is caused in large part by human supply and not least climate change have all pushed it high up the activities (such as burning fossil fuels), and if left unchecked will international agenda. In order to avoid dangerous climate change, have disastrous consequences. Furthermore, there is solid scientific global CO2 emissions must peak no later than 2015 and rapidly evidence that we should act now. This is reflected in the conclusions, decrease after that. The technology to do this is available. The published in 2007, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate renewables industry is ready for take off and opinion polls show Change (IPCC), a UN institution of more than 1,000 scientists that the majority of people support this move. There are no real providing advice to policy makers. technical obstacles in the way of an Energy [R]evolution, all that is The effects of climate change have in fact already begun. In 2008, missing is political support. But we have no time to waste. To the melting of the Arctic ice sheet almost matched the record set achieve an emissions peak by 2015 and a net reduction afterwards, on September 16, 2007. The fact that this has now happened two we need to start rebuilding the energy sector now. years in a row reinforces the strong decreasing trend in the amount of summertime ice observed over the past 30 years. 6 image ICEBERG MELTING “renewable energy, combined ON GREENLAND’S COAST. with the smart use of energy, can deliver half of the world’s energy needs by 2050.” © GP/NICK COBBING In response to this threat, the Kyoto Protocol has committed its In fact, the additional costs for coal power generation alone from today signatories to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from up to 2030 under the Reference Scenario could be as high as US$ their 1990 levels by 2008-2012. The Kyoto signatories are 15.9 billion: this would cover the entire investment needed in renewable currently negotiating the second phase of the agreement, covering and cogeneration capacity to implement the Energy [R]evolution the period from 2013-2017. Time is quickly running out. Signatory Scenario. These renewable sources will produce energy without any countries agreed a negotiating ‘mandate’, known as the Bali Action further fuel costs beyond 2030, while the costs for coal and gas will Plan, which they must complete with a final agreement on the continue to be a burden on national and global economies.