Evaluation of African Development Bank Strategies and Programs in Gabon, 2011- 2020 SUMMARY REPORT May 2021 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Task Manager Samson K. Houetohossou, Principal Evaluation Officer Team Members Eric A.O. Yai, Consultant (at the beginning) and Mohammed Khoali, Consultant (at completion) Consultants Analysis for Economic Decision (ADE - Belgium), under the supervision of Hubert Cathala Internal Peer Oswald Agbadomé, Principal Evaluation Officer Reviewer External Peer Mohamed Hedi Manai, International Consultant Reviewer Bank’s Internal Central Africa Regional Development and Business Delivery Office (RDGC); Reference Group African Development Bank Country Office in Gabon (COGA); Country Economy Department (ECCE); Governance and Public Finance Management Department (ECGF); Service Delivery, Performance Management and Results Department (SNDR). Knowledge Jacqueline Nyagahima, P Knowledge Management Officer, Raky M. Gassama, Management and Senior Knowledge Management Officer, Najade Lindsay, Knowledge Management Communication Officer and Marc Bappa Se, Junior Consultant Officers Additional support Yao Parfait Kouassi, Team Assistant; Henda Ayari, Team Assistant; Myrtha Diop, provided by Senior Budget and Administrative Assistant, and Ruby Adzobu-Agyare, Secretary Special thanks to: All AfDB Country Office staff in Gabon, development partners met during the field mission, the Government of Gabon, especially the FINEX Unit and other eXternal stakeholders that contributed directly or indirectly to the evaluation process. Division Manager Madhusoodhanan Mampuzhasseril Evaluator-General Karen Rot-Munstermann (Acting) Roland Michelitsch (Former) TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................... i TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................. ii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... ii 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Evaluation Objective and Scope ............................................................................................ 1 1.2 Methodology and Limitations ................................................................................................. 1 2. GABON’S DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT .............................................................. 2 2.1 Economic and Governance ConteXt ...................................................................................... 2 2.2 Social ConteXt ........................................................................................................................ 3 2.3 Gabon’s Main Development Challenges ................................................................................ 4 2.4 Gabon's Development Strategies ........................................................................................... 4 3. BANK STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS IN GABON ......................................... 5 3.1 Strategic Framework of Bank Interventions in Gabon ............................................................ 5 3.2 Bank Portfolio in Gabon ......................................................................................................... 6 4. PERFORMANCE OF BANK STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS IN GABON ..... 7 4.1 Relevance .............................................................................................................................. 7 4.2 Effectiveness .......................................................................................................................... 9 4.3 Efficiency .............................................................................................................................. 13 4.4 Sustainability ........................................................................................................................ 15 4.5 Crosscutting Issues .............................................................................................................. 16 5. PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND BANK PERFORMANCE ............................ 18 5.1 Knowledge Management and Policy Dialogue ..................................................................... 18 5.2 Donor Coordination .............................................................................................................. 18 5.3 Results-based Management ................................................................................................ 19 6. CONCLUSIONS, LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................. 20 6.1 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 20 6.2 Lessons ................................................................................................................................ 21 6.3 Recommendations ............................................................................................................... 21 ANNEXES .................................................................................................................. 23 AnneX 1: Evaluation Methodology ............................................................................................... 23 AnneX 2: Analysis of Operations by Size and Status ................................................................... 26 AnneX 3: Rating ........................................................................................................................... 29 AnneX 4: Adapting the Approach to the COVID-19 Pandemic ..................................................... 30 AnneX 5: Summary Table of the Adopted Evaluation Methodology ............................................. 31 AnneX 6: Statistical Data .............................................................................................................. 32 AnneX 7: Bank Portfolio in Gabon for the 2011-2020 Period ....................................................... 35 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 37 List of Boxes BoX 1: Gabonese Government's Response to the COVID-19 Crisis ..................................................... 5 BoX 2 : Efficiency of AfDB programs in light of Changing Leadership ................................................. 15 BoX 3 : Summary of Success and Failure Factors ............................................................................... 21 List of Figures Figure 1 : Trends and Sector Distribution of AfDB Approvals in Gabon, 2011-2020 .............................. 6 Figure 2: Trend of Recurrent Expenditure and Non-oil Revenue ......................................................... 10 Figure 3 : Trends of Gabon's "Doing Business" Ranking (2011-2020) ................................................ 11 Figure 4 : Average Start-up Delay by Project Type (months) ............................................................... 13 ii List of Tables Table 1: Evaluation Questions ............................................................................................................... 2 Table 2: Gabon's Key Macroeconomic Indicators .................................................................................. 3 Table 3: Bank's Strategic Pillars and Objectives for Gabon ................................................................... 5 Table 4: Assessment Summary of the Main Evaluation Criteria .......................................................... 20 iii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ADAG Gabon Agricultural Development Agency ADOA Additionality and Development Outcomes. Assessment AfDB African Development Bank ANCAR National Agricultural and Rural Advisory Agency IDEV AfDB Independent Development Evaluation BEAC Central Bank of Central African States BSTP Subcontracting and Partnership EXchange CAMC Arbitration, Mediation and Conciliation Centre CCAIMAG Gabonese Chamber of Commerce, Agriculture, Industry, Mining and Handicraft CEMAC Central African Economic and Monetary Community CGA Accredited Management Centre COMIFAC Central African Forest Commission COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 CSP Country Strategy Paper ECCAS Economic Commission for Central African States ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan FCFA Franc of the African Financial Community FER Road Maintenance Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GRAINE Gabonaise des réalisations agricoles et des initiatives des nationauX engagés (Agricultural Production and Initiatives of Committed Gabonese Nationals) GSEZ GSEZ Port Project (Gabon Special Economic Zone) ICT Information and Communication Technology IMF International Monetary Fund MIC Middle-income Country MUA1 Million Units of Account PABURC Emergency Budget Support Program in Response to the Crisis PACEBCo Congo Basin Ecosystem Conservation Support Program PADEG Gabonese Economic Diversification Support Project PAGDRF Support Project for the Sustainable Management of Forest Resources in Gabon PAMPDIEG Business Incubator Development Support Project in Gabon PAPG GRAINE Support Program (phases 1 & 2) PAREF Economic and Financial Reform Support Program PASIG Infrastructure Sector Support Project in Gabon PASTA- Project to Support the Agricultural Transformation Strategy and Promote Youth