ENERGY AND POVERTY THE WORLD NEEDS FAR MORE ELECTRICITY TO POWER DEVELOPMENT, LATEST GLOBAL ENERGY STUDY FINDS he latest edition of the the security of international sea World Energy Outlook, lanes and pipelines. And they Tpublished in September will look anew at ways of diver- 2002 by the International sifying their fuels, as well as the Energy Agency (IEA) of the geographic sources of those Organization for Economic fuels. The OECD Alternative Cooperation and Development Policy Scenario demonstrates (OECD), depicts a future in the strong impact that new which energy use continues to policies to curb energy demand grow inexorably, fossil fuels growth and encourage switch- continue to dominate the ener- ing away from fossil fuels could gy mix and developing coun- have on import dependence. tries fast approach OECD Governments and consumers countries as the largest con- are, nonetheless, likely to con- sumers of commercial energy. tinue accepting a degree of risk The Earth’s energy resources are in return for competitively undoubtedly adequate to meet ployment of new energy tech- priced energy supplies. 24 rising demand for at least the nologies. Both scenarios con- Necessary expansion of pro- next three decades. But the pro- firm the extent of the policy duction and supply capacity jections in this Outlook raise se- challenges facing governments will call for massive investment rious concerns about the securi- around the world. at every link in the energy sup- ty of energy supplies, invest- A key result of the Outlook is ply chain. Investment of almost ment in energy infrastructure, that energy trade will expand $4.2 trillion will be needed for the threat of environmental rapidly. In particular, the major new power generation capacity damage caused by energy pro- oil- and gas-consuming regions alone between now and 2030. duction and use and the un- will see their imports grow sub- Mobilizing this investment in a equal access of the world’s pop- stantially. This trade will in- timely fashion will require the ulation to modern energy. crease mutual dependence lowering of regulatory and mar- Governments will have to among nations. But it will also ket barriers and the creation of take strenuous action in many intensify concerns about the an attractive investment cli- areas of energy use and supply world’s vulnerability to energy mate – a daunting task in many if these concerns are to be met. supply disruptions, as produc- countries in the developing The Outlook’s core projections tion is increasingly concentrat- world and the former Soviet are derived from a Reference ed in a small number of pro- Union. Most investment will Scenario that takes into ac- ducing countries. Supply secu- be needed in developing coun- count only those government rity has moved to the top of the tries, and it is unlikely to mate- polices and measures that had energy policy agenda. The gov- been adopted by mid-2002. A ernments of oil- and gas-im- The article is based on the separate Alternative Policy porting countries will need to Executive Summary of the World Scenario assesses the impact of take a more proactive role in Energy Outlook, published by the a range of new energy and envi- dealing with the energy security International Energy Agency in ronmental policies that OECD risks inherent in fossil-fuel Paris, France, in September countries are considering trade. They will need to pay 2002. Visit the IEA web site for IAEA BULLETIN, 44/2/2002 adopting as well as of faster de- more attention to maintaining more information at www.iea.org rialise without a huge increase year from 2000 to 2030, reach- Consumption of coal will in capital inflows from indus- ing an annual level of 15.3 bil- also grow, but more slowly than trialised countries. lion tonnes of oil equivalent. that of oil and gas. China and Energy-related emissions of The increase will be equal to India together will account for carbon dioxide (CO2)are set to two-thirds of current demand. two-thirds of the increase in grow slightly faster than energy The projected growth is, never- world coal demand over the consumption in the Reference theless, slower than growth over projection period. In all re- Scenario, despite the policies the past three decades, which gions, coal use will become in- and measures taken so far. In ran at 2.1% per year. creasingly concentrated in the Alternative Policy Scenario, Fossil fuels will remain the power generation, where it will however, new policies that primary sources of energy, remain the dominant fuel. many OECD countries are cur- meeting more than 90% of the Power-sector coal demand will rently considering, together increase in demand. Global oil grow with the expected increase with faster deployment of more demand will rise by about 1.6% in gas prices. The deployment efficient and cleaner technolo- per year, from 75 mb/d in 2000 of advanced technologies will gies, would achieve energy sav- to 120 mb/d in 2030. Almost also increase coal’s attractive- ings and promote switching to three-quarters of the increase in ness as a generating fuel in the less carbon-intensive fuels. demand will come from the long term. These developments would transport sector. Oil will re- Role of Nuclear Power. The eventually stabilise CO2 emis- main the fuel of choice in road, role of nuclear power will de- sions in OECD countries, but sea and air transportation. As a cline markedly, because few only towards the end of the result, there will be a shift in all new reactors will be built and Outlook period. regions towards light and mid- some will be retired. Nuclear More than a quarter of the dle distillate products, such as production will peak at the end world’s population has no ac- gasoline and diesel, and away of this decade, then decline cess to electricity, and two- from heavier oil products, used gradually. Its share of world pri- fifths still rely mainly on tradi- mainly in industry. This shift mary demand will hold steady 25 tional biomass for their basic will be more pronounced in de- at about 7% through 2010, energy needs. Although the veloping countries, which cur- then fall to 5% by 2030. Its number of people without rently have a lower proportion share of total electricity genera- power supplies will fall in the of transportation fuels in their tion will fall even faster, from coming decades, a projected product mix. 17% in 2000 to 9% in 2030. 1.4 billion people will still be Demand for natural gas will Nuclear output will increase in without electricity in 2030. rise more strongly than for any only a few countries, mostly in (See box, page 29.) And the other fossil fuel. Primary gas Asia. The biggest declines in number of people using wood, consumption will double be- nuclear production are expect- crop residues and animal waste tween now and 2030, and the ed to occur in North America as their main cooking and heat- share of gas in world energy de- and Europe. The prospects for ing fuels will actually grow. To mand will increase from 23% nuclear power are particularly extend electricity supplies to to 28%. New power stations uncertain. Some governments the energy poor and give them will take over 60% of the in- have expressed renewed interest better access to other forms of crease in gas supplies over the in the nuclear option as a modern energy, stronger gov- next three decades. Most of means to reduce emissions and ernment policies and co-ordi- these stations will use com- to improve security of supply. nated international action will bined-cycle gas turbine tech- Renewables. Renewable ener- be essential. nology, a form of generation gy will play a growing role in Fossil Fuels Will Continue favoured for its high energy- the world’s primary energy mix. to Dominate Global Energy conversion efficiency and low Hydropower has long been a Use. World energy use will in- capital costs. Gas is also often major source of electricity pro- crease steadily through 2030 in preferred to coal and oil for its duction. Its share in global pri- the Reference Scenario. Global relatively benign environmental mary energy will hold steady, primary energy demand is pro- effects, especially its lower car- but its share of electricity gen- jected to increase by 1.7% per bon content. eration will fall. Non-hydro re- IAEA BULLETIN, 44/2/2002 newables, taken as a group, will imports. The Chinese economy of coal will drop from 9% to grow faster than any other pri- will remain exceptionally 7%. Coal use will expand in in- mary energy source, at an aver- dependent on coal, but the dustry, but only in non-OECD age rate of 3.3% per year over shares of oil, natural gas and countries. It will stagnate in the the projection period. Wind nuclear will grow in China’s residential and services sectors. power and biomass will grow energy mix. Increasing oil- and Fossil Energy Resources Are most rapidly, especially in gas import needs will make Ample, But Technologies and OECD countries. But non- China a strategic buyer on world Supply Patterns Will Change. hydro renewables will still markets. The world’s energy resources make only a small dent in glob- Transport Uses Will Outstrip are adequate to meet the pro- al energy demand in 2030, be- All Others. Transport demand, jected growth in energy de- cause they start from a very low almost entirely for oil, will grow mand. Oil resources are ample, base. OECD countries, many the most rapidly of all end-use but more reserves will need to of which have adopted strong sectors, at 2.1% per annum.