PREPARED FOR ALBERTA INFRASTRUCTURE & TRANSPORTATION MMARKETARKET AASSESSMENTSSESSMENT OFOF HHIGHIGH SSPEEDPEED RRAILAIL SSERERVICEVICE ININ THETHE CCALALGGARARYY-E-EDMONTDMONTONON CCORRIDORORRIDOR FEBRUARY 2008 PREPARED BY TEMS, INCNC. / OLIVERLIVER WYMANYMAN Market Assessment of High Speed Rail Service in the Calgary-Edmonton Corridor This report was prepared by Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. (TEMS) for the Government of Alberta. The report’s contents do not necessarily constitute the official policy and position of the Government of Alberta. TEMS, Inc. / Oliver Wyman February 2008 i CCC ERTIFICATION OF FFF ORECASTS T HIS IS TO CERTIFY THAT THE 2 0 2 1 A N D 2 0 5 1 B A S E C A S E F ORECASTS FOR THE F O U R T ECHNOLOGIES CONSIDERED BY TEMS A N D O L I V E R W YMAN , AS PART OF THE A L B E R T A I NFRASTRUCTURE AND T RANSPORTATION -C A L G A R Y E D M O N T O N H IGH -S P E E D R A I L P ROJECT ARE AS FOLLOW S : 1 2 5 M P H 1 5 0 M P H 2 0 0 M P H 3 0 0 M P H R IDERSHIP 2 0 2 1 1,554,926 2,518,190 4,136,138 5,816,264 R IDERSHIP 2 0 5 1 2,821,448 4,301,497 7,654,689 10,745,289 February 28, 2008 DR. ALEXANDER E. METCALF / PRESIDENT DATE: TEMS, INC. February 28, 2008 MR. GILLES ROUCOLLE DATE: OLIVER WYMAN Market Assessment of High Speed Rail Service in the Calgary-Edmonton Corridor Table of Contents Certification of Forecasts Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................v 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................1 1.1 Statement and Purpose of Study..................................................................................................1 1.1.1 Study Overview ...............................................................................................................1 1.1.2 Study Corridor .................................................................................................................2 1.1.3 Technology Options ........................................................................................................3 1.2 Study Requirements ......................................................................................................................4 1.3 Work Plan........................................................................................................................................5 1.3.1 Phase 1: Travel Demand Analysis .................................................................................5 1.3.2 Phase 2: Market Analysis................................................................................................8 1.3.3 Phase 3: Forecasting.......................................................................................................10 1.3.4 Phase 4 – Financial and Economic Analysis...............................................................11 1.4 Organization of the Report .........................................................................................................11 2 Current Market and Modes..........................................................................................12 2.1 Demand for Travel.......................................................................................................................12 2.2 Current Transportation System..................................................................................................12 2.2.1 Air Service.......................................................................................................................13 2.2.2 Bus Service......................................................................................................................13 2.2.3 Highway Travel .............................................................................................................14 2.3 Nature of the Calgary-Edmonton Corridor..............................................................................15 2.3.1 Transport Networks and Generalized Cost ...............................................................17 3. Stated Preference Survey..............................................................................................18 3.1 The Role of the Stated Preference Survey.................................................................................18 3.2 Survey Approach .........................................................................................................................19 3.2.1 Quota Sample .................................................................................................................19 3.2.2 Questionnaire Design....................................................................................................19 3.2.3 Trade-off Options...........................................................................................................19 3.2.4 Survey Design ................................................................................................................20 3.3 Air Survey .....................................................................................................................................21 3.4 Highway Survey...........................................................................................................................22 3.4.1 Survey Organization .....................................................................................................23 3.4.2 Data Processing..............................................................................................................24 3.5 Bus Survey ....................................................................................................................................25 3.6 Survey Profile Results..................................................................................................................26 3.6.1 Air Survey.......................................................................................................................26 TEMS, Inc. / Oliver Wyman February 2008 ii Market Assessment of High Speed Rail Service in the Calgary-Edmonton Corridor 3.6.2 Auto Survey....................................................................................................................28 3.6.3 Bus Survey – Greyhound..............................................................................................30 3.6.4 Bus Survey – Red Arrow...............................................................................................33 3.7 Survey Analysis: Values of Time / Value of Frequency..........................................................35 3.7.1 Variability of the VOT...................................................................................................35 3.7.2 Analysis and Survey Results........................................................................................36 3.7.3 Values of Time/Frequency for High-Speed Rail........................................................37 3.8 Survey Analysis: Data Expansion..............................................................................................38 3.8.1 Auto Trip Validation .....................................................................................................41 4 Economic Scenarios.......................................................................................................46 4.1 Economic Database and Sources................................................................................................46 4.1.1 Population.......................................................................................................................47 4.1.2 Employment ...................................................................................................................48 4.1.3 Average Household Income.........................................................................................48 4.2 Alberta Economic Regions..........................................................................................................49 4.3 Comparative Regional Projections.............................................................................................50 4.4 Conclusions...................................................................................................................................54 5 Transport Strategies.......................................................................................................55 5.1 High-Speed Rail Strategies .........................................................................................................55 5.2 Competitive Mode Strategies for Air and Bus .........................................................................60 5.3 Resource Cost and Highway Development .............................................................................61 5.3.1 Oil Price...........................................................................................................................61 5.3.2 Highway Congestion.....................................................................................................62 6 TEMS Ridership and Revenue Forecasts ..................................................................63 6.1 Description of the COMPASS Model System...........................................................................63 6.1.1 Total Demand Model ....................................................................................................63 6.1.2 Induced Demand ...........................................................................................................64