Science to support toxics governance: tracking mercury and other pollutants from policy to impacts by Amanda Giang B.A.Sc., University of Toronto (2011) S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, (2013) Submitted to the Institute for Data, Systems and Society in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY June 2017 c Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2017. All rights reserved. Author............................................................................ Institute for Data, Systems and Society May 10, 2017 Certified by........................................................................ Noelle E. Selin Associate Professor of Data, Systems and Society and Atmospheric Chemistry, MIT Thesis Supervisor Certified by........................................................................ Lawrence Susskind Ford Professor of Urban and Environmental Planning, MIT Committee Member Certified by........................................................................ Elsie M. Sunderland Associate Professor of Environmental Science and Engineering, Harvard Committee Member Accepted by....................................................................... John N. Tsitsiklis Clarence J. Lebel Professor of Electrical Engineering IDSS Graduate Officer 2 Science to support toxics governance: tracking mercury and other pollutants from policy to impacts by Amanda Giang Submitted to the Institute for Data, Systems and Society on May 10, 2017, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Abstract Persistent and bioaccumulative toxins like mercury pose unique challenges for environmental governance. The complexity of their movement through coupled social, technological, and natural systems can make it difficult to trace their path from emissions to wider impacts, as emissions and impacts can be separated both in time and space. This separation can make it difficult to assess whether different management and policy proposals will effectively reduce negative impacts. Focusing primarily on mercury, this dissertation explores how we can use interdisciplinary tools and approaches|from atmospheric modelling to community engaged research|to better trace this path from policy to human impacts, in support of environ- mental decision-making at multiple levels of governance. Combining simulation modelling, statistical, and qualitative approaches, it considers three aspects of the path from policy to impacts: how policy translates into emissions changes, how emissions changes translate into changes in environmental concentrations and fluxes, and finally how these environmental concentrations and fluxes impact the well-being of human communities. Taken together, the three studies highlight the need to take into account how social, technical, and natu- ral systems interact, as well as the uncertainty, variability, and pluralism that exist within them, in our efforts to manage these toxic pollutants. In the first study, I investigate the social and technical factors that affect the domestic implementation of a global environmental treaty (the United Nations Minamata Conven- tion on Mercury) in major emitter countries in Asia, and their potential implications for emissions and global transport using a scenario-based modelling approach. I project that the benefit of avoided emissions and deposition over Asia are large, even when considering a scenario where the Convention allows large flexibility in implementation. These benefits are primarily driven by India, where even modest improvements in mercury capture are pro- jected to result in large emissions decreases given future economic growth. I also find that climate change policies that promote the transitioning away from fossil may be as effective as strict end-of-pipe pollution control approaches for mitigating mercury emissions. In the second study, driven by interests from community research partners in the Great Lakes region|an area vulnerable to mercury pollution|I use chemical transport modelling experiments to explore the conditions under which regional and global policy change can be statistically detected by wet deposition monitoring networks. I find that, given the mag- nitude of expected emissions decreases, detecting policy-related decreases in wet deposition in the Great Lakes region on the decadal scale will be challenging as the magnitude of noise|in particular interannual meteorological variability|can exceed this signal. These 3 results suggest that these variabilities need to be better quantified and taken into account in both the design of policies for effectiveness and evaluation of policy compliance. In the third study, I investigate the role that university-community partnerships can play in the long-term management of persistent pollutants through an empirical case study of the Superfund Research Program, which has recently required that grantees engage com- munities impacted by the hazardous substances that they study. I argue that community engagement in practice often supports a community building function|engagement oper- ates as a space where knowledge about pollutants and shared identities of being impacted by these pollutants can be co-produced. Because persistent pollutants can implicate new people across time and space, often in ways that are difficult for those affected to discern, I suggest that supporting the constitution of what I call communities of concern is a critical way that university-based researchers can support the long-term management of persistent pollutants. I propose a conceptual framework to characterize and assess the functions that academic partners can perform in supporting the constitution of communities of concern around persistent pollutants. Further, I call attention to the institutional conditions that can enable this work to continue within academic contexts. Thesis Supervisor: Noelle E. Selin Title: Associate Professor of Data, Systems and Society and Atmospheric Chemistry, MIT Committee Member: Lawrence Susskind Title: Ford Professor of Urban and Environmental Planning, MIT Committee Member: Elsie M. Sunderland Title: Associate Professor of Environmental Science and Engineering, Harvard 4 Acknowledgments First and foremost, I would like to thank my advisor Noelle Selin. I've grown so much as a scholar through her mentorship, in ways that I could not have predicted when I started graduate school six years ago. She has been a guiding hand when I've needed it, while also giving me the space to explore and discover my interests. I feel so grateful to have had her as a role model for the sort of professor I hope to be one day. I have also benefited immensely from my committee members, Larry Susskind and Elsie Sunderland. Their insights have always led me to think in new directions that I hadn't considered, and I think my work is much better for it. And beyond research, I've appreciated their sage advice on academic careers and enjoying life. I would also like to acknowledge my other academic mentors, including Ken Oye and Henrik Selin|their interest in my professional development has enabled me greatly. Many thanks go to my interdisciplinary collaborators. It has been a delight to work with Leah Stokes, Bess Corbitt, David Streets, Shaojie Song, Marilena Muntean, Abby Harvey, Elizabeth Berg, and the ASEPs team at MTU, DRI, and NWIC. It has also been a great privilege to work with the many community partners in the ASEPs project. I also thank all the interviewees for sharing their time and insights. Without their generosity, this work would not have been possible. I would like to thank the Selin Group and the Joint Program|members past and present|for creating such an intellectually stimulating and supportive space to do interdis- ciplinary research. These have been great homes to do exciting work, and to have fun (and pie-sized cookies) with friends and colleagues while doing it. I'm so grateful to have shared this journey with the TPP/ESD/IDSS community, and in particular, the cohort that I started graduate school with. I'm so inspired by the work of my classmates and friends, and buoyed by everything else we do when we're not working, from book clubs to burgers and beers. I would also like to acknowledge all the support I've received from the ESD/IDSS staff, that has kept me on track over the years. I'd like to express my gratitude to my other friends and family at and outside of MIT. I'm so privileged to have a support network of real superheroes that make me feel like I can do anything too. Having Sean's family nearby has been a pleasure and a constant source of support. I am forever indebted to my parents, who worked so hard to give me the opportunities to pursue my passions, and to my older brother Wayne, whom I've looked up to my whole life and who inspired my life as an engineer. Finally, I'd like to thank my partner Sean, who has supported me through this process with much grace, laundry, and the very best jokes. He has kept me smiling through all of it. This work was supported by funding from NSERC Canada, the Martin Family Society of Fellows, the MIT SSRC Stokes Fund, and NSF Grants No. 1053648 and 131755. 5 6 Contents 1 Introduction 17 1.1 Motivation . 17 1.2 Chapter Descriptions . 20 2 Impacts of the Minamata Convention on mercury emissions and global deposition from coal-fired power generation in Asia 23 2.1 Introduction . 24 2.2 Methods . 26 2.2.1 Technology scenario development . 26 2.2.2 Emissions estimation . 27 2.2.3 Chemical transport modeling . 28 2.3 Results . 30 2.3.1 Synthesis of available mercury control technologies and techniques . 30 2.3.2 Technology scenarios . 32 2.3.3 Emissions . 36 2.3.4 Impacts on deposition . 37 2.3.5 Sensitivity Analysis . 38 2.4 Discussion and Policy Implications . 40 3 Understanding factors influencing the detection of mercury policies in modelled Laurentian Great Lakes wet deposition 45 3.1 Introduction . 46 3.2 Methods . 49 3.2.1 Overall approach . 49 7 3.2.2 Analysis of observed trends . 51 3.2.3 Chemical Transport Modeling . 53 3.2.4 Model Experiment . 56 3.3 Results . 59 3.3.1 Observed trend . 59 3.3.2 Model Evaluation . 60 3.3.3 Policy Only Simulation . 62 3.3.4 Emission Trend Simulations .