Braintree D i s t r i c t C o u n c i l 2017-33 1 April 2014 – 31 March 2015 Published February 2016 Contents Introduction 1 Map of Braintree District 2 Local Development Scheme 3 Interim Planning Policy Statement 4 Profile of the District population 5 District population and households change 8 Economy, employment and travel to work 15 Business Development 25 The supply of new homes 30 Policy Performance Conclusions 48 Appendix: Schedule of sites included in assessment of Five Year Supply of sites for new homes 2016-2021 Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2014 Detailed Contents Schedule Page Figure 1 Map of Braintree District 2 Interim Planning Policy Statement 4 Table 1 Population of Braintree District June 2014 5 Population age structure, Braintree District compared Table 2 5 with East of England and England averages Population and number of homes in Braintree District by Table 3 6 Parish, 2011 Census Population and number of homes by Ward, 2011 Table 4 7 Census, and estimated population by Ward 2014 Estimated population change Braintree District by year Table 5 8 2001/2002 to 2013/2014 Components of estimated population change Braintree Table 6 8 District 2001/2002 to 2013/2014 Braintree District population trend, 2001/2002 to Figure 2 9 2013/2014, components of change Migration statistics Braintree District 2005/2006 to Table 7 10 2013/2014 Top 10 sources of in-migration according to the 2011 Figure 3 10 Census, Braintree District: Top 10 destinations of out-migration to other parts of the Figure 4 10 UK according to the 2011 Census, Braintree District: Braintree District, 2012/2014 change: ONS 2012-based Table 8 11 projections compared with ONS estimated actual change Estimated annual average change 2013-2037 based on Table 9 Edge Analytics Greater Essex Demographic Forecasts, 12 Phase 7 Projected average household size Braintree District, Figure 5 13 based on CLG 2012 based household projections Table 10 Household composition, 2011 Census 14 Projected number of households 2037 by household type Table 11 14 according to CLG 2012 based household projections Projected change in number of households 2012-37 by Table 12 14 household type, based on CLG 2012 based projections Table 13 Labour Supply 2014/2015, Annual Population Survey 15 Economic activity rate trend 2004/05 to 2014/15, Annual Figure 6 15 Population Survey Table 14 Unemployment trend 2014/2015 Braintree District 16 Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2015 Claimant count unemployment, Braintree District, 2014 - Figure 7 16 2015 Longer term unemployment trend Braintree District, Figure 8 16 Claimant count January 2006 to July 2015 Job Seeker Allowance Claimants April 2015, Braintree Table 15 17 District compared to East of England Region and UK Unemployment rate, Braintree District, Region and Great Figure 9 17 Britain, 2008 to 2015 Unemployment rate April 2009 and April 2015, local Figure 10 17 authorities in Greater Essex Change in number of JSA claimants in Greater Essex Table16 April 2014-April 2015, in absolute and percentage 18 change terms Qualifications of Braintree District residents aged 16-64: Table 17 19 Jan 2014-Dec 2014 Job Density 2013: Braintree District compared to East of Table 18 19 England Region and GB Table 19 Job Density 2013 in the Strategic Housing Market Area 20 Table 20 Job Density trend Braintree District 2001-2013 20 Estimated change in number of jobs 2003-2013, Table 21 20 Strategic Housing Market Area Greater Essex districts: Net commuting according to Table 22 21 2011 Census Travel to Work data Commuting out of Braintree District: Top 10 destinations, Figure 11 21 2011 Figure 12 Commuting into Braintree District: Top 10 sources, 2011 22 Spring 2014 EEFM Baseline Employment Forecasts Table 23 22 2011-2031, Strategic Housing Market Area Experian Employment Forecasts 2011-2031, Strategic Table 24 23 Housing Market Area Table 25 Industry of employment of residents, March 2011 23 Number of persons working in Braintree District by Table 26 24 industry of employment, 2011 Braintree residents who were self-employed, 2004-2015, Table 27 24 and compared with regional average Table 28 Non-residential floorspace completed 2014/2015 25 Table 29 Net retail floorspace development: 2009-2015 26 Table 30 Net office floorspace development: 2009-2015 26 Table 31 Net B1/B2/B8 floorspace development: 2009-2015 26 Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2015 Potential non-residential floorspace (with planning Table 32 27 permission) identified, March 2015 by Use Class Location of potential non-residential floorspace (with Table 33 27 planning permission), March 2014 Location of Vacant Allocated Employment Land without Table 34 28 Planning Permission, March 2015 Total remaining land identified for non-residential uses Table 35 28 (Use Classes A1, A2, B1-B8 and D), March 2015 Forecast demand for office floorspace, Braintree District, Table 36 28 2015-2033 Forecast demand for industrial land, Braintree District, Table 37 29 2015-2033 Estimated dwelling stock Braintree District at 31 March Table 38 30 2014 Ratio of median house price to median earnings Essex Figure 13 30 District (2013) Braintree District house price to earnings ratio and Figure 14 31 England house price to earnings ratio, 1997-2013 Provision for new homes: Summary of progress so far, Table 39 32 LDF Core Strategy Figure 15 Net supply of new homes Braintree District 2001 to 2015 32 Increase in number of homes, 2001-2015, Greater Essex Figure 16 33 districts Net supply of new homes from completions on windfall Table 40 35 sites, Braintree District, 2005/06 to 2014/15 Net capacity of expired planning permissions that remain Figure 17 37 outside the development pipeline Summary of forecast supply of new homes over the 5- Table 41 38 year supply period 2016-2021 Completion of new homes on Previously Developed Table 42 Land Braintree District 2009-2015 41 Projected share of development of new homes from Figure 18 41 previously developed land, 2015/16 to 2020/21 Table 43 Number of traveller caravans July 2013 to July 2015 42 Table 44 Location of Traveller sites July 2015 43 Table 45 Net completions 2014/2015, affordable homes 44 Estimated affordable housing trajectory 2015/2016 to Figure 19 45 2020/2021 New homes completed in Braintree District 2014/2015: Figure 20 45 number of bedrooms Flood risk and planning permissions granted for new Table 46 47 homes Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2015 Introduction The monitoring report aims to assess progress in meeting policy targets and milestones, and to present information on housing trajectories demonstrating the delivery of the provision of new homes. If you have any queries relating to this monitoring report, please contact the Planning Policy team on email [email protected] General information about the new Local Plan and about the Local Development Framework Core Strategy can be found on http://www.braintree.gov.uk/info/200230/local_development_framework_and_ planning_policy/701/new_local_plan and http://www.braintree.gov.uk/info/200230/ldf_and_planning_policy/250/core_str ategy_and_proposals_map Braintree District Council Monitoring Report 2015 Page 1 Figure 1: Map of Braintree District Braintree District Council Monitoring Report 2015 Page 2 Local Development Scheme The Local Development Scheme (LDS) sets out a rolling programme for the preparation of documents that will form Braintree District Council’s Local Plan. In September 2014, the Council determined to not continue the work on the Draft Site Allocations and Development Management Plan but instead to progress work on a new Local Plan. Once completed, the new Local Plan will incorporate draft work done to date on the Site Allocations and Development Management Plan and will replace the Council’s Core Strategy 2011 and Local Plan Review 2005. This decision is supported by an Interim Planning Policy Statement, reproduced in full on the next page. The 2014 update to the LDS included the introduction of a timetable for the production of the new Local Plan, and a new section on Neighbourhood Planning. Neighbourhood plans are currently being prepared for Coggeshall; Cressing; Feering; Hatfield Peverel and Kelvedon. In January 2015 the Council published a further update to the LDS. Information on evidence base documents was updated where a review or new documents are to be produced to aid the production of the new Local Plan. Progress on Key Studies for the Evidence Base: Published: Issues and Scoping Document, January 2015 Sustainability Appraisal Scoping Report, December 2014 Call for Sites, Initial Responses February 2015, with update May 2015 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment, November 2015 Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA); 2014 Objectively Assessed Housing Need Study, July 2015 Demographic Projections, Phase 7, May 2015 Development Boundaries Review Methodology, June 2015 Employment Land Needs Assessment, August 2015 Gypsy and Travelling Showpersons Accommodation Assessment, July 2014 Landscape Capacity Analysis Study of settlement fringes of main towns and key service villages, June 2015 In progress: Affordable Housing Viability Study Brownfield Land Study Retail Study Update, planned to be published December 2015 Infrastructure Plan Highways Impact Assessment Habitats Regulation Assessment Open spaces Sport Recreation Strategy Transport Assessments Cycling