Purdue University Purdue e-Pubs Open Access Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 12-2016 Modeling the impact of land surface feedbacks on post landfall tropical cyclones Subashini Subramanian Purdue University Follow this and additional works at: https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/open_access_dissertations Part of the Hydrology Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physics Commons Recommended Citation Subramanian, Subashini, "Modeling the impact of land surface feedbacks on post landfall tropical cyclones" (2016). Open Access Dissertations. 1006. https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/open_access_dissertations/1006 This document has been made available through Purdue e-Pubs, a service of the Purdue University Libraries. Please contact [email protected] for additional information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¶V ³3ROLF\RI ,QWHJULW\LQ5HVHDUFK´DQGWKHXVHRIFRS\ULJKWPDWHULDO $SSURYHGE\0DMRU3URIHVVRU V 'HY 1L\RJL $SSURYHGE\ ,QGUDMHHW &KDXEH\ +HDGRIWKH'HSDUWPHQWDO*UDGXDWH3URJUDP 'DWH i MODELING THE IMPACT OF LAND SURFACE FEEDBACKS ON POST LANDFALL TROPICAL CYCLONES A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Purdue University by Subashini Subramanian In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy December 2016 Purdue University West Lafayette, Indiana ii To Appa. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There is certainly quite a long list of people whom I am thankful for. Special thanks to my advisor Dev Niyogi. I would like to acknowledge the support of my committee members Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, Harshvardhan and Rao S. Govindaraju. Without the encouragements and collaboration from Frank Marks of HRD, Vijay Tallapragada and Mike Ek at NCEP/ EMC and U.C. Mohanty of IIT Bhubaneswar this dissertDWLRQZRXOGQ¶WKDYHEHHQSRVVLEOH Further acknowledgement to NSF CAREER grant (NSF CAREER ± 0847472) and NSF R2O (Research to Operations) supplement, Indo-US Science and Technology Foundation (IUSTF), 12$$¶V+XUULFDQH)RUHFDVW Improvement Program (HFIP) and Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India (Grant no./ 259 Project no MM/SERP/CNRS/2013/INT- 10/002). I started this research work without a formal training in atmospheric science and I would be amiss if I did not acknowledge Krishna Osuri (India team) for getting me started on my research topic and being around night or day to answer any of my questions. I would also like to thank Samuel Trahan at EMC for answering the innumerable questions that I had on HWRF and for his help in putting a roof over my head during my stint at NCEP. Thanks also to my friends and fellow lab mates especially Xing Liu and Elin Karlsson. They have always been there for me whenever I wanted to bounce off ideas or simply to iv ramble on about life. For me, it was a huge source of strength just knowing my friends, Nithya, Pooja and Manasi will be around no matter what. I will be whacked if say thanks. All these people have become my family away from my home in India. Finally, I am truly grateful and thank my stars for my family, my mother Geetha, who has supported me in all of my endeavors (good ones and the nutty one), my brother Srikanth, my alter ego and the calm head I need during troubled times, and my husband Girish, who makes me look beyond, into the future, makes me believe and dream. viii Page APPENDICES Appendix A Secondary Circulation ............................................................................. 203 Appendix B Idealized Framework in HWRF with Landfalling Capability ................. 208 Appendix C Model Configuration Studies ................................................................... 223 Appendix D Perspectives on the Impact of Land Cover and Land Use Change on the Indian Monsoon Region Hydroclimate ........................................................................... 232 VITA ............................................................................................................................... 271 ix LIST OF TABLES Table .............................................................................................................................. Page Table 4.1 Physics options used in operational HWRF configuration ............................... 64 Table 5.1 Physics options used in the idealized HWRF experiments. .............................. 77 Table 5.2 List of experiments conducted in the idealized HWRF2013 ............................ 77 Table 5.3 Additional experiments for SM, Z0, size of storm. ........................................... 86 Table 5.4 Interaction terms and equations for the factor separation analysis. .................. 88 Table 6.1 Precipitation Statistics for Hurricane SANDY (Cycle 2012102912) ............. 118 Table 6.2 Precipitation statistics for Hurricane IRENE (2012) ...................................... 124 Table 6.3 Precipitation statistics for TS DON. ............................................................... 127 Table 6.4 Precipitation statistics for TS BILL. ............................................................... 136 x LIST OF FIGURES Figure ............................................................................................................................. Page Figure 2.1 Illustration of some possible outcomes and factors in the evolution of a TC as it approaches land. .............................................................................................................. 6 Figure 2.2 7KHJOREDODQQXDOPHDQ(DUWK¶VHQHUJ\EXGJHW7KHEURDGDUURZVLQGLFDWHWKH schematic flow of energy in proportion to their importance. (Modified from Trenberth et al., 2009) ............................................................................................................................. 9 Figure 2.3 Schematic representation of typical surface energy budgets for daytime (left) and night time (right). (Adapted from Arya, 1988) .......................................................... 12 Figure 2.4 Observed diurnal energy balance over Sevilleta Desert shrub land in New Mexico USA Jan 02, 2008 (top) and Apr 01, 2008 (bottom). (Data source: Ameriflux) . 14 Figure 2.5 Observed diurnal energy budget of an agricultural field in Oklahoma, USA, on Jan 01, 2010 (top) and Apr 10, 2010 (bottom). (Data source: Ameriflux) ....................... 15 Figure 2.6 Observed diurnal energy budget of a needle leaf forest in Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA, on Jan 01, 2008 (top) and Apr 01, 2008 (bottom). (Data source: Ameriflux)......................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 2.7 Observed diurnal course of subsurface soil temperatures at various depths in ARM SGP Main Ameriflux site (Vegetated Cropland) in Oklahoma USA, on Apr 01- 03, 2008 (data source: Ameriflux). ......................................................................................... 18 )LJXUH7\SLFDOGD\WLPHSURILOHVRIPHDQYLUWXDOSRWHQWLDOWHPSHUDWXUHșv, wind speed M (where M2 = u2+v2), water vapor mixing ratio r, and pollutant concentration C. (Redrawn from Stull 2012.) .............................................................................................. 21 Figure 2.9 ABL evolution during a diurnal cycle. (Adapted from Stull, 2012) ............... 21 )LJXUH7\SLFDOGD\DQGQLJKWWLPHSURILOHVIRUSRWHQWLDOWHPSHUDWXUHșPHDQZLQGVu, and specific humidity q. The boundary layer and mixed layer are marked. ..................... 22 )LJXUH3HQPDQ¶VHOHFWULcal analogue approach. ........................................................ 26 xi Figure ............................................................................................................................. Page Figure 2.12 Illustration of a second-generation LSM. P and PT are the total precipitation above the canopy and through-fall respectively, ra is the aerodynamic resistance, rs is the soil resistance, rc is the canopy resistance, and Q is the collective runoff. (Adapted from Gascoin, 2009) .................................................................................................................. 28 Figure 2.13 Illustration of a third-generation LSM. P and PT are the total precipitation above the canopy and throughfall respectively, ra is the aerodynamic resistance, rs is the soil resistance, rc is the canopy resistance in series with the resistance from the leaf stomata/photosynthesis, and Q is the collective runoff. (Adapted from Pitman, 2003; Bonan, 2008) ..................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 3.1 Vertical cross section of a mature TC ............................................................. 48 Figure 3.2 Visible satellite imagery of a mature TC (Source: NOAA) ............................ 49 Figure 3.3 Schematic of CISK theory for TC intensity. (Source: The COMET PROGRAM) ..................................................................................................................... 52 Figure 3.4 Schematic of a TC idealized